Day 51

The Aqueduct card kept me winning early, but in the end it was another awesome day at Gulfstream today.  In the opener at Aqueduct - which ironically had cancelled on Friday due to cold and today announced they would be closed tomorrow due to cold - I liked Forest Boy.  He was the 9/5 program favorite and seemed deserving of that based on his "A" game figures.  If able to run back to one of those he would be LONG gone against these.  But on the flip side you had to take into account that he was a THIRTEEN time maiden loser.  Yikes.  Take confidence that David Jacobson is in charge was my thinking.  The crowd did NOT make him the favorite and he was allowed to leave the gate at a very generous 5/2.  He went right to the front and I could tell the jockey had a tight hold on him......I'm in great shape I thought.  As they spun out of the turn he was let loose and romped home by daylight.  WHOOOO HOOOO!  The first score of the day for a handsome $35.  In the second at Gulfstream, my first local selection, I had tabbed Broadway Zen who looked like the lone speed on the turf in this non-winners of 2 lifetime spot.  He sat just off the cheap speed and opened up turning for home.  Then here came the one horse I feared - I had noted that Classy Kid, listed at 6/1, was the threat.....not because he'd ever really run well, but because today Javier Castellano was on board. That one came to me in deep stretch and edged by late paying over $10.  Sigh......second (the first of many today).  But that race was no sooner official than they were off at Laurel in a starter allowance.  As I mentioned in my video, watch below, it was almost unfair that there was betting allowed on Printasticat in this spot.  he had romped twice by daylight in her last two, against better, AND with Beyers that towered over these.  Even 1/5 would be stealing.  That is what I got and she ran to her numbers.  Sat just off the pace to the far turn and then kissed the field good-bye under a hand ride.  It was the first of any "prime time" investments. 

At Tampa, Hashtag Bourbon was had the top rider and had faced name company in his past.  He looked like a short-priced winner.....on paper.  After stalking the pace to the turn he stopped badly, 6th at 1/2.  In the third at Aqueduct I liked the first time starter Face.  All the numbers said "pick me!"  The barn wins at a 24% rate with debut horses, at a big $3.94 ROI.  The rider was 7-for-14 for the barn - also at better than $3 ROI.  The barn is an even stronger 36% with first-time maiden claimers, and this at a HUGE $6 ROI.  Topping the cake, they had won with a horse like this two weeks ago.  The only concern was the rail draw which can be difficult for inexperienced runners.  But, Dave Liftin wrote that their winner two weeks ago had also won from the rail.  This barn obviously knows what they are doing!  Face broke a bit slowly, but was quickly up and on the lead after the opening quarter.  As they hit the turn he opened up and was an easy winner at 7/5 - cashed for nearly $25.  Then I hit a streak of misses:  third at Tampa, third at Gulfstream when Double Desert tossed the rider and ran off.  The tote board said he was scratched, but then they announced he was NOT scratched.  I considered cancelling the bet, but I liked the horse and he was even a "day-maker" from "The Player" on HRTV.  And I figured if the barn kept him in he must have a legitimate chance.  Made a big run on the far turn into second, but was flat to the wire, third at 5/1.  4th at Laurel, 4th with a Pletcher first time starter at 4/5 at Aqueduct, and fifth at 8/5 at Laurel.  I was SURE I'd snap the losing in either of my next two picks - both from Gulfstream, both maiden races for sophomores, and in both I had Pletcher runners.  Jambles stalked the pace, and went clear on the lead at 7/2 in the fifth, but was run own by the favorite (my second choice) in deep stretch, 2nd.  Spanish Armada made a bold bid on the turn going two turns on the turf at 5/2, but hung to be third.  As I came in from watching this race live, they were posting the "OFFICIAL" sign at Aqueduct.  I'd won with Possessed.  He was the 4/5 favorite, but I was just happy to "stop the bleeding."  Then I saw the replay - Possessed was loose on the lead and LONG gone in mid-stretch (listen to the call in the replay video) and then suddenly he shortens stride and it is oh-so-close!  I would have been having a heart attack :)  But hey, a win is a win.  MIssed two more - at the Fair Grounds when Sugar Street dueled to the top of the stretch and then weakened, and then at Laurel in their John B. Campbell Handicap when Saiolr's Revenge (at 4/1) came flying 7-wide, but too late, fourth. 

Finally a winner at Gulfstream!  The seventh race was a maiden claiming event for three-year-olds going five furlongs over the turf.  Jersey Life looked very obvious, with one concern.  She'd debuted with a miserable effort in May on the dirt, but when transferred to the turf she sprinted to a good second against Maiden Specials.  That race wins here, especially on the drop in for a tag.  But there is the problem - that race was last June!  Could she repeat that effort today?  I felt more confident that the answer was YES when I noted that trainer Wesley Ward was a partner in the ownership on this filly (with actor Joe Pesci!).  She broke in front and was in complete control throughout the entire race, winning by daylight.  I was irritated that I'd only bet the minimum so the $3.80 wasn't even going to get me back $10, but as I walked up to video the recap clip I pulled the ticket out and I HAD doubled the bet!  I looked back at my sheet, and that had been the plan all along, I just assumed I did not.  WHOOO HOOO, I'm collecting nearly $20 for my first winner on track! 

Three misses followed.....second at even money at Aqueduct with Jazzmineagain; third at the Fair Grounds at 8/5 when I made a "winning move" but had no punch through the lane on Miss Ruby's Legacy; and then 4that 2/1 in the featured Grade 3 Barbara Fritchie at Laurel.  Sam's Sister was unbeaten on the main track and had been shipped from California by Jerry Hollendorfer.  She stalked and then when the real running started she ran evenly to the wire.  Probably got enough of the purse to pay the travel expenses.  I was back in the winner's circle with my next pick, this one from Santa Anita. Just as Todd Pletcher is "the man" with three-year-olds at Gulfstream, so too is Bob Baffert at Santa Anita.  Well, Power Jam had been working sensationally for today's debut including one work covering six furlongs in a swift 1:11 from the gate - that wins many allowance races!  All he had to do was run to his works.  Everyone saw what I saw and he was 2/5 (which I was happy to get after he'd been 1/9 through most of the wagering!).  He talked a sizzling :21 and :44 pace to the far turn then jockey Martin Garcia shook the reigns and that was the end of that.  Ultra impressive and I had my next "prime time" investment on him.  The eighth at Gulfstream we were on the turf - maiden three-year-old fillies.  I liked Chad Brown's debut runner, Araqeel.  Ten days ago Mrs. Mcdougal had romped as a debut filly on the turf for Brown and he commented afterwards that she would next be seen in stakes company.  Well, on paper, Araqeel looked to be cut from the same cloth.  She was the favorite, but at a more-than-fair 8/5.  The gates opened and she was left behind, dead last.  On the turf it's typically not a bad thing to come from off the pace, but at Gulfstream, and especially lately, to win on the grass you need to be up close.  Top jockey Javier Castellano showed why he's #1 as he didn't rush the filly.  Midway down the backstretch she was STILL last.  It's too late, I thought.  But as the field was reaching the far turn he asked her for her run.  By the time the field had made their way half way through the turn she'd swept past the back half of the field and even while four wide, she was quickly catching the top quartet.  As heads turned for home her sensational burst had brought her even with the leaders.  Had the big move taken all the punch out of her finishing kick?  Not in the least as she hit yet another gear and kissed this field good-bye in a devastating run to the wire. 

WOW.  She is good, and I will anxiously await her return in stakes company to bet her back.  She paid a very solid $5.20 and with my triple investment I was about to cash for nearly $40!  At Golden Gate I had Russell Baze on the 1/5 favorite who looked MUCH the best....but he was a close second.  Wow.  Then at Aqueduct Blithely was my choice in the Broadway Stakes after a very troubled trip against most of these same runners last out.  I had watched the replay and she looked like she was clearly the best in that last one.  Well, today she got the dream run on the rail and never broke stride, but was only fifth.  Guess that trouble wasn't so bad after all.  Next up was the ninth from Gulfstream.  This was a non-winners of three lifetime going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.  When I handicap restricted claiming events like this I look for runners who have never been out of open company, and occasionally I will look at runners dropping in class from a higher priced three-lifetime.  But as a general rule I avoid runners exiting a win against 2-lifetime runners.  With all that said, my pick WAS exiting a two-lifetime win.  But there were extenuating circumstances.  In that spot Franklin had been moving dirt-to-turf, was in for less than $40K, and getting Javier Castellano.  All three of those things are Gulfstream 40% Club angles for trainer Michael Maker, and I'd made Franklin a "prime time" play that day.  He was MUCH the best then.  So today Franklin exits a powerful win, is in for last than $40K, and once again gets Castellano.  So, he's STILL a Gulfstream 40% Club play!  I was hoping that he'd be a better price, but the fact he was bet down to 3/2 favoritism was understandable.  Castellano quickly put the outside draw disadvantage out of the way as Franklin broke sharply and was stalking the leader - while daylight clear of the field - as they moved into the first turn.  I knew I had a very probable winner.  When they hit the far turn Castellano asked and Franklin was gone once they turned for home.  My THIRD WINNER at Gulfstream! 

The winning ticket meant I'd collect $25 for my bankroll.  Two odds-on favorites faltered before the feature at Gulfstream.  Iknewuweretrouble was 4/5 at Aqueduct and was cruising on the lead to the top of the stretch, then weakened badly to be fifth.  At the Fair Grounds Hazards of Love was loose on the lead at 7/5 and seemed relaxed and running easily.  But when a challenger came to him in deep stretch he wasn't good enough to hang on, second.  The feature today at Gulfstream was the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie going six and a half furlongs for fillies & mares.  I won this last year with Breeders' Cup Champion Groupie Doll.  Well, my top pick is no Groupie Doll, but she's GOOD!  Merry Meadow was not my choice in either of her last two when she won a listed stakes and then the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl.  But she looked good here.  It was a little disconcerting that I'd read trainer Mark Henning had planned on a brief vacation after her listed stakes, but she was training so well that he ran her in the Sugar Swirl and she won; and then she was supposed to take a break after that, but again Henning said she was just too sharp.  Really?  YES - when you looked at her workout lines, she'd BLISTERED a BEST-OF-100 bullet work for today.  YOWZA!  She is sharp as a tack.  Her main rival was More Than A Party who is very fast and projected to be the lone speed.  But I'd seen More Than A Party wire allowance fields before, and when she faced Geeky Gorgeous - who is a multiple stakes winner, but NOT a listed winner - Geeky Gorgeous easily collared her and blew by.  I saw that as the scenario today.  When Wildcat Lily - who projected to duel with 'Party - scratched it made the pace scenario a little more tricky.  But Merry Meadow had legitimately earned Beyers of 96 and 97 in three of her last five starts against strong company, while More Than A Party had earned similar figures when loose on an easy lead against lesser.  She would NOT be loose today and she WOULD have to run faster at the end of the race.  I made Merry Meadow my BET of the Day.  The race played out just as I'd seen it.  More Than A Party went to the front and was clear, but Javier Castellano had Merry Meadow breathing down her neck to the far turn.  When the real running started Merry Meadow EASILY blew by and drew off by ten widening lengths, clearly running to that bullet work! 

I had bet $25 so I cashed for $50! AND for the third time in four racing days this week I'd cashed on FOUR winners at Gulfstream!  Four disappointments followed - Shackleford Burns was even money at Golden Gate and ran fifth; Turn On The Pumps was clear on the lead in mid-stretch at Santa Anita - at a fair 2/1 - before literally letting a runner go by in deep stretch.  Which really was NOT a surprise considering she was a 22/1-7-1 runner.  I'd initially dismissed the race, but with her being Brad Free's Best Bet and her superior figures I dove in.  Then at the Fair Grounds Echo Warrior looked easily best on paper, and left the gate at 4/5.  But was only second.  In the finale at Gulfstream I was prime time on a GP 40% Club play - Michael Maker and Javier Castellano on the turf with a runner - Cold Spice - who was moving from dirt to turf - a club angle - and in his only turf start was a good second behind a horse that had come right back to win and then ran second in a stakes.  The listed program 5/2 price was more than fair.  But as the betting got under way he was 6/1 - I had to look up the program horses by number because I HAD to have the number wrong.  Nope.  I must be sitting on a "day maker" at this price.  He went off at 5/1, unbelievable.  But after being right there to the far turn he stopped dead in his tracks to finish last.  I had two late plays at Santa Anita that I had bet as I left.  I got home in time to watch the featured El Camino Real from Golden Gate - the original reason I'd handicapped that card.  I had not found a horse I liked and both the track handicapper and the DRF picked a "price play."  Well, the horse they liked ran away with the race and paid over $15.  Oh to have had a $10 bet on that colt just because they BOTH liked him!  The feature at Santa Anita was the Grade 2 Santa Maria.  I was torn between two fillies until I read Brad Free's column.  He supported one of the two I liked, and the more I looked at the race the more I was convinced we were right in settling on Warren's Veneda.  Not only had she paired speed figures, and both at this distance, but her last, albeit in a restricted stakes, had been a dominant performance.  But best of all, four of the seven she faced today figured to be racing on the front, effectively setting he table for a closer, which Warren was!  The race played out just this way as Warren's Veneda sat near the back to the far turn while four of them knocked heads on the front end.  Warren's Veneda swept to the lead while five wide, and as they straightened for the sprint to the wire she accelerated away to win by daylight! 

I had tripled the bet and will cash for over $40 on my next visit to Gulfstream.  In the final race of the day I had Bobbi Grace in Santa Anita's Sweet Life Stakes going six and a half furlongs down the hill.  Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens gave a ride worthy of his reputation as he scraped paint through the lane, but was narrowly beaten on the wire, second.  He objected to the winner knocking his filly off stride, which did happen, but it was not a slam into her, just a brush.  Still, I thought it might warrant a DQ, but the stewards ruled no.  For the day I scored with ten of thirty-three picks, a very nice 30%.

February 14 Video Recap