Day 50

Feb 13: A Lesson In Handicapping Leads To "Score of the Day!"

There are many, many angles and facets to handicapping.....some of them are very straight-forward, some are very esoteric. Today, one of the most basic steps in handicapping led to the "Score of the Day" and a third winning day.  Here's how the day played out.......In the opener I had a GP 40% Club play on a Jorge Navarro runner making it's second start off the layoff.  The crowd was all over My Mom Sinatra, but she stopped badly after setting the pace for the first quarter of a mile, 7th.  In the second, on the turf, Kingdom Crown had been right there as the favorite last time out before encountering traffic.  She was strictly the one to beat at 2/1.  She stalked the pace, made what looked like a winning move, and then ran evenly to the wire, 3rd.  The next bet was in the 6th where Rocky Gap was going first off the claim for Navarro, a 30% winning move.  He stalked the pace at 9/5 and ran evenly, 5th.  In the 7th we were on the turf for a Maiden Special event going 7 1/2 furlongs.  Easement became the latest runner of the week that I would normally NOT bet - a fifteen time maiden.  But today he was sent out by "The Chief," Hall of Fame trainer Allen Jerkens with Javier Castellano on board.  He'd only been on the turf twice and the ls tie out he was third in a 3-way photo.  Today was his day - or so I thought.  Was mid-pack to the turn, made "the winning move" to collar the 7/1 front-runner (who was HRTV's Jeff Siegle "Day-maker") and couldn't get by, second best.  Wow - this is NOT how the week has gone so far!

But here's an interesting sidelight.....if you're following this week's adventures you know that my success has come as I've watched the races live, and that has been the unique element to the unparalleled winning of this week to date.  Well, today Kim was down on the beach for a girls' getaway weekend and so I knew that I'd be watching HRTV.  But she called around 11 am and invited me, strongly encouraged me, to join she and her girlfriends (all pals of mine from our Piper High days) for lunch.  So I drove down there just as the racing got started, but I set the DVR so I could watch the races "live" on HRTV.  I didn't get home until a little after 4 pm, which covered the first seven races of the day, described above.  Lost them all!  Because I'm not watching live?  Oh that's ridiculous you say.  Read on oh paddo-wan....

As I said at the beginning, there are many handicapping angles that you should utilize, or at least check as you go through a race.  One of the basic tenets of handicapping is that you start your handicapping of the race by reading the conditions of the race. These are found at the very top of the past performances, such as below for Gulfstream's 8th race on Friday February 13th. Most of the time the conditions are simple and have little impact on your handicapping. Sometimes it gives you a small insight - such as the price tag for all the runners today and you can find a runner who's dropping in class; or it could be that today is a state-bred allowance and your horse is dropping out of an open allowance. But typically the conditions do not mean a lot. Then there are days like today. When ever I see an allowance race written with conditions that read something like this, ".....or non winners of a race since August 16......" I immediately recall one of the first books I read about handicapping where the author pointed out that often times the racing secretary has a very specific horse in mind when writing that race. So I look for which horse most closely fits the conditions of the race. So, Thursday, in reading the conditions of this race I see that it is for horses that have not won three allowance conditions, or they can have won as many as they like if they are willing to run for a $100K price tag, OR - and this was the key......see the highlighted portion below.......they can run WITHOUT the claiming tag AND can have won three allowance conditions provided they have not won a race since August 16. Now that's a very specific date. Hmmmmm. I scan down and there he is, #2 Karibu Gardens. His last win was in a Grade 2 - obviously above this 3x-other than allowance level, but the win came on.....you guessed it, EXACTLY on August 16. Coincidence? I think not! Even Scott Hazelton on HRTV pointed this out. Still, in spite of this basic handicapping clue, AND the fact that a Grade 2 winner facing allowance foes was being ridden by the meet's top rider, Javier Castellano, the crowd let him go off at better than 2/1. As you can see, he burst through between runners in mid-stretch and streaked past the finish line as a daylight winner!

The winning payout of $6.20 resulted in a return of over $30 for me and provided me another winning day! WHOOOO HOOOOOO!  No play in the 9th, but I had one more selection on the day, in the finale.  The tenth race was a $20K claiming event going two turns on the turf.  In their last, Lighthouse Sound had snapped a four-race win streak by Fan Base.  The fact that Fan Base appeared to be the LONE speed in the race today would, to many handicappers, make him the play back today.  But, even though it's unusual for mid-level claimers like this to put wins together, especially when they were NOT the favorite last time out - as Lighthouse Sound had not been - there was solid handicapping evidence that he WOULD win right back.  The first was a negative angle.  Two races back when Fan Base had scored his fourth consecutive win he had been claimed away so that last time out he was running for new connections.  The fact he'd lost for those new connections would have been negative enough to consider going against, but noting that trainer Patricia Farro is off to an 0-for-40 start this winter made him a DEFINITE play against.  Lighthouse Sound, off the WIN over Fan Base was claimed.  And this was a positive angle, as he was haltered by Jorge Navarro AND was getting top jockey Javier Castellano up today.  The race played out nearly exactly as I'd seen it.  Fan Base was cruising on the lead, Lighthouse Sound stalked into the turn, but to get clear run he was fanned five wide into the stretch.  He was finishing fast and to his credit Fan Base was not giving up, and there was another runner splitting the two who'd gotten a much cleaner trip to take a run on the leader.  As they flew in front of the jumbotron it was clear that it would be a question of which head bob was down on the wire.  The slow-motion replay from the pressbox view made it appear that Lighthouse Sound got the nod.  But the view from the grandstand level was less clear, especially with it's odd angle.  As I watched on HRTV they were unsure and we had to wait three or four minutes for the official photo..........

I WIN!  Finish 2-for-6 for the day and it's another winning day.  AND, the races I watched live, BOTH WON.  Go figure!