After the big day on Friday I was curious if that would serve as foreshadowing for a big day today when we were in the national spotlight, or was that my "best shot" for the week? with an early post time set for noon and the anticipated huge crowd I knew that parking would be an issue, so I left a little after 10 am and arrived on track at 11, a full hour before post time of the opener. And my first bet wasn't until almost 12:30, so I had a lot time to hang out and enjoy the weather.....it was a perfect blue sky and the temperatures never got above the mid-70s. With a steady breeze all day I would almost go so far as to describe the day as chilly - though I know none of our friends and family up north would agree with that as they suffer through temps in the 20s.
The first play for me was at Tampa in their opener and I had a nice price (5/1) on an Antonio Gallardo horse. Dueled into the stretch, but outfinished, second. I had debated about playing the opener at Gulfstream where the favorite was everyone's selection and even the DRF "best" of the day. But, while I'd put her on top as well, I didn't think it was worth wagering with a small gain for he risk - he won :( My first local bet was in the second where I thought Indian Brut, who was lightly raced and being well bet was the play. She opened at 1/9 and with the heavy action I upped the bet from double to triple. She tracked my second choice while saving ground on the rail, but after being checked slightly down the backstretch she couldn't get by, second again. Back to Tampa where I doubled the bet on Motor City. He looked to be a very legitimate favorite on the class drop, but when the gate opened he was left behind in dead last. Great :( But top jockey Gallardo was patient, let him get his feet under him and when a seam opened on the rail after the first quarter mile he sent Motor City up and he went from last-to-first before they made it through the turn. One of the closers was making headway into the lane but Gallardo had plenty left and Motor City was easily best. Less than ten minutes later I had my next play at Gulfstream and my first stakes bet. I had picked Super Colossal who was listed at an absurd 12/1 by the DRF linemaker. This guy was a two-time stakes winner and had been last seen setting the pace in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. On what planet would you make him a 12/1 choice in a listed $75K stake? OK, so he's not the obvious favorite having never been on the grass and today's Texas Glitter Stakes was slated for five furlongs on the grass. But his first stakes win had originally been intended for the turf so that didn't worry me. He was Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti's BET of the Day as well. He was being bet heavily and I decided to up the bet again to a triple investment. I figured he would not set the pace from his outside draw but would stalk the pace. Exactly right! He was four wide into the lane and there was a brief moment of concern when a longshot blew up the rail to take a short lead, but Super Colossal was simply too good for these. 
His odds had floated up from 1/9 to a generous even money so I collected $30! Right back to the winner's circle in snowy, cold New York at Aqueduct when Overthespeedlimit wired their second, a maiden claimer for sophomores. In the fourth at Gulfstream I had played Great Stuff and he was FLYING through the lane, but was a photo-finish second at 7/2. Then it was time for my first major play of the day, the co-feature at Aqueduct, the Grade 3 Toboggan. Salutos Amigo laid over his five rivals - he'd beaten four of them last time out and the other was a rank outsider. The only concern, as voiced by his trainer was that Dads Cap - whom he'd beaten in his last win - today might be loose on the lead. Well, I thought he'd have company and I as dead wrong. As the field turned for home he was all alone on the front and was SIX in front while Salutos Amigos was in fourth and hadn't begun to move yet! Uh oh, trouble.....no worries! Top NY jockey Irad Ortiz shook the reins and he gobbled up the ground quickly, caught him inside the final 16th and was easily clear on the wire! WHOOOO HOOOOOO!
I had a prime time investment on him so I cashed for a nice $35 - good money considering how clearly best he was. I thought I had a really good chance, at what turned out to be a very fair price, in the next at Gulfstream, the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint. Bold Thunder had been fourth in his return to the races two back in allowance company here, tiring after setting a sharp pace. But in his last when I thought he'd be run down again in the Tampa Turf Dash he wired the field in hand. Today he had the rail and was the clear lone speed. The crowd was all over Green Mask - who I'd bet to close in that Tampa race, but he was second. I thought he had a much less chance today to catch Bold Thunder. Right to the front and on an easy lead into the lane, I thought I was a handy winner. But in the final furlong he was run down by a longshot at 7/1. I looked back in the form, who was this guy? The same horse that had run him down in that allowance race two back. Sigh......but it was on the next at Gulfstream, a maiden special event going a one-turn mile and I did NOT back the Pletcher runner! Uh oh. In addition my horse had the one jockey I have next to no faith in, Julian Leparoux! But Danzig Moon just looked so hard to beat here that I went against both of these handicapping standards for me. In his debut two back Danzig Moon was a good fourth in a race that saw the winner come right back to win. Then in his last, going a one-turn mile at Churchill he broke slowly, was spun five wide into the stretch but was FLYING. He was second best but EIGHT clear of the show horse. All I was hoping for was that Leparoux would give him a good trip. He broke sharply and Leparoux kept him in the clear. He moved on the turn four wide, and was floated five wide into the stretch. But he was CLEARLY superior as he blew by the field and drew off with every stride and was in hand as he crossed the wire.
I had doubled the bet so I cashed out for $25 on my second win here at "the 'Stream." I missed on the next three - an allowance at Aqueduct where Lellani's Ticket was flying late and third in a 3-way photo; and then well beaten finishes at the Fair Grounds and Gulfstream where neither pick ran well. But I cashed again, for the third time at Aqueduct in an allowance race. Today, as it turned out, seemed to be a day where all the "standard rules" do NOT apply. It is very rare that I will bet a last out maiden winner. Even more rare when that horse is trying something new in it's first start against winners. But Via Strata had been dominant in her sprint debut. She had the Tomlinson figures to indicate that going a mile would not be an issue, and she was royally bred by the powerful Shadwell Stables. But most intriguing was her last work. If you follow my handicapping you know I like bullet works, a lot. Well Via Strata had fired a best-of-one-hundred-and-sixty-six workers for today's test. WOWZA! She broke sharply, right to the front and led them on a merry chase to the top of the lane. A couple of challengers made their run, but top jock Irad Ortiz said "let's go" and Via Strat was L-O-N-G gone. Another near $20 for me. At Tampa my turf pick just ran evenly. Then I thought I had my price play of the day at Gulfstream when Tapicat was making her return to the races in allowance company. Since winning her maiden and an allowance here as a three-year-old she'd seen nothing but stakes company. She'd not had much success with the exception of a listed stakes here off a layoff. So today looked like a great set-up. She broke sharply from post twelve and went right to the front. She looked in hand when clear into the stretch and at the 16th pole she was still in front! But in the final fifty yards she was caught, third beaten less than two lengths. SOOOO close at a nice 7/2. But I got my money back moments later at Aqueduct where I scored for the fourth time. I mentioned going against Pletcher earlier and I'd done this a couple of times and was yet to be burned. Well, the seventh at Aqueduct was a maiden special for 3-year-olds and there were two runners with experience that both looked like they were sitting on a win. But Lord Commander was a debut runner for Todd Pletcher; he had top rider Irad Ortiz up; and he was 4/1 in the program too good to pass up! He dueled with one of the experienced runners and was pinned inside into the lane. The experienced runner seemed to poke his head in front briefly but Lord Commander fought back and edged clear late to score at a juicy 5/2. The $7.80 payoff get me back nearly $40! I missed at Aqueduct and was disappointed when El Kabeir - a multiple graded stakes winner - was run down late in Aqueduct's co-featured Grade 3 Withers. How ironic that the winner was a last-out maiden winner for......TODD PLETCHER! Check out the highlights to the first half of the day:
Donn Handicap Day Highlights
Part 1
The tenth at Gulfstream was the first of the FOUR Graded Stakes - the Grade 3 Suwannee River going nine furlongs on the turf. My handicapping for today had started early in the week when I posted a horse-by-horse analysis of each and every runner in these four graded events, as well as the earlier turf sprint stakes. This race, I thought, was easily the most wide-open of the bunch. I thought that the top four threats were: White Rose for Bill Mott, but she was stuck on the far outside; Skylander Girl, who was listed at 15/1, but she'd been a determined front-runner in the Grade 3 Marshua's River when succumbing late while holding on for second; Rosalind was particularly intriguing to me for Chad Brown. She'd won the Grade 1 Ashland as a sophomore but had really just picked up some also-ran checks since. But she seemed coming up to the race in sharp form. Then there was Sandiva. She had been my pick in the Tropical Park Oaks under Javier Castellano for Todd Pletcher and she'd been a sharp winner at a very delicious $10.60 payout. She figured to be a shorter price today and was going further in her first try against older. Still, I thought she had enough of an edge to warrant a play, just not any added money. Boy she was sharp today. She cruised past the leaders on the far turn, accelerated and was long gone.
And she paid a solid $6.20 so even with the minimum investment I collected over $15. The 11th at Gulfstream was the Grade 3 Fred Hooper and I loved Race Day. He'd fired a huge 109 Beyer in dominating allowance foes for Todd Pletcher last out and I thought today was his day to begin winning graded events. His stalking style figured to play nicely into what looked like a disputed pace scenario. I was right on point when Valid and Grand Shores dueled through a wicked half mile in :45 and change going a mile, and 1:09 and change for six furlongs. Race Day was at least a half a dozen lengths behind the top two as they turned for home, but you knew they'd weaken through the lane. At the furlong marker he was in high gear and flying....but the top two showed little sign of stopping! He kept coming and at the finish it was a photo finish.....but I was pretty certain I was third, and I was. Man, that would have been nice! Tee 4th at Santa Anita was a turf sprint down the unique hill-side course going 6 1/2 furlongs for sophomores. Young and Hungry was debuting for Tom Proctor, Glen Hill Farms, and jockey Gary Stevens. Hall of Famer rider Stevens was hitting at better than 30% and I thought might be my "day-maker" when he was listed at 12/1 in the program! 'Hungry left the gate at better than 7/1 and Stevens had him in perfect position as they crossed the main track and sprinted home. He was right outside the favorite at the 16th pole and they head-bobbed to the wire....PHOTO FINISH! My heart was racing but even as I hoped that the camera angle was bad, I knew deep down inside that I was a nose short.....oh, so close. That would have been easily $80 and change and made for a HUGE profit on the afternoon. But, no time to cry over spilled milk as it was time for the first Grade 1 event of the winter, the co-featured Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. This race had several legitimate contenders, but I knew before I started handicapping who my pick was, Mshawish. I'd had him on Haskell Day when he did not win in what I thought was a poorly ridden race in a Grade 3. I followed him in his next where he won at Saratoga and in one of the worst calls of the summer was DQ'd. Then I had him again when he made his made his five-year-old debut in the El Prado Stakes. He'd been dominant that day, and before his last start, the Grade 2 Ft. Lauderdale, Gulfstream analyst Christina Bossonakis remarked that his Thoro-graph numbers were among the best for turf runners in the country. That day he won for me again with a wide trip. After the race his owners remarked on camera how talented he was and that he had won despite a rough trip. Then they added that he was a "much better horse" when allowed to be covered up on the inside during the running of a race. So just on what I'd seen previously I knew he was probably the one to beat, but when I saw he'd drawn the rail I KNEW he was the one to beat. He was getting his "cover" today and the only issue looked to be if top jockey Javier Castellano would have trouble getting OFF the rail when the sprint for home came out of the far turn. How prophetic because all the way through the turn Mshawish was pinned inside with no where to run and as they turned for home he was caught behind a wall of horses. Still Castellano patiently waited, then at the 16th pole a seam appeared and Mshawish BURST through - very cool to listen to track announcer Larry Colmus' call on the highlight video! He held off Slumber, an 11/1 longshot that had won for me at 17/1 a couple years ago and was Bossanakis' longshot play for the race, but he was the winner! My fourth win at Gulfstream, my third stakes win, and my second graded stakes win! 
Mshawish had been the 7/5 favorite, but I'd tripled the bet so I collected over $35. I missed in Santa Anita's Grade 3 Robert Lewis and at the Fair Grounds, both with minimum bets. Then it was time for the highlight race, the signature Donn Handicap. To me this race's analysis went through your opinion of Lea, the defending champ. He'd won the 2014 Hal's Hope at a big price for me, then I let him get away in last year's Donn. But he'd gotten sick and had missed all of 2014 and not been back to the races until a month ago in the 2015 Hal's Hope. That was a short field, but turning for home he was behind a wall of four front-runners dueling on the lead at the 16th pole when jockey Joel Rosario guided him outside and he accelerated by in a burst of speed to win as my best of the day. Trainer Bill Mott had commented coming up to today's race that he thought he was as good as he was this time last year; and the Beyer he earned verified that. In fact his Beyer in last year's Donn and this year's Hal's Hope were figures better than all LIFETIME figures of the field! But I had this nagging feeling that I'd seen him fire his best shot in the Hal's Hope and that while I expected him to run very well, I thought he COULD be beaten if someone had a "big day" today. Emotionally I was drawn to the rail runner, Constitution who had won the Florida Derby for me last spring and lit up my profit by keying a win in the handicapping pool. But, like Lea Constitution had been out of racing for several months. He had returned last fall and disappointed at 2/5 in an allowance race. I was willing to give him one at the sprint distance off a long layoff. He was my pick in the Grade 1 Clark as the speed of the race and he was in front with a furlong to go and looked in control. But he was run down late to finish third. Hmmmm. Then I read that Pletcher had circled this race as his target race for Constitution. So my thinking was that he was primed for a big effort, he had the rail and could be the controlling speed; he had top rider Javier Castellano; and he was a perfect 3-for-3 on this track. I explained my dilemma to Kim over dinner Friday and even as I recited it all out loud I knew that the "right play" was Lea. Even Kim could see that. But still, I just had this feeling. So as I'd headed to the track my selection sheet read: $10 to WIN on Constitution. But I'd promised myself that if Lea was taking a lot of money and I got "that feeling" I would not hesitate to switch. When Race Day could not get to the dueling leaders in the Fred Hopper I was pretty convinced that Constitution would have no problem taking this field wire-to-wire. My only fear was that Pletcher had a second runner, Commissioner, in the field who had nearly wired the Belmont last spring.....would they duel each other into submission? This would be the perfect set-up for Lea! Lea was the 4/5 favorite and Constitution was 4/1 when I bet. He eventually floated down to 5/2 and right out of the gate he was on the lead. But pressing him on the outside was Commissioner. As I watched the two of them go, all the while being tracked intently by Lea I felt like Constitution was not really running hard, that Castellano had the race under control. As they spun out of the turn he disposed of Commissioner and set sail for the wire two in front. Lea made his move but Constitution had something left and drove to the wire 3/4 of a length in front! WHOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOO!
He paid a generous $7.80 and I was collecting for nearly $40! The Donn was the finale on the card and went off just as dusk was arriving. The win put my numbers on track at five wins (from eleven selections) overall; four stakes wins, three graded stakes wins, and a SWEEP of the Grade 1 races on the day! WHOOP WHOOP! As I left the track I had four stakes races on the final page of my selection sheet. Two of those races came from Delta Downs where it was Louisiana Premier Night, and two came from Santa Anita in their pair of graded stakes features. The first on the list was the Grade 2 San Marcos going a mile and a quarter over the turf in California. I originally listed Finnegan's Wake as my top pick. But after watching HRTV's weekend preview and So Cal handicapper Brad Free made Dynamic Sky his "bet of the weekend" from this race based on his troubled trip I re-watched his last. He had been narrowly beaten by Finnegan's Wake going shorter and he had had a boat-load of trouble. I agreed with Free - a clean trip today and he wins! I switched my pick. When they hit the far turn and Dynamic Sky was in the perfect spot without any trouble and the jockey asked for run he had nothing....evenly to the wire. And yes, you guessed it, Finnegan's Wake accelerated to the wire as the winner. Sigh. Next was the Louisiana Premier Night Sprint. At five furlongs nobody and I mean nobody in the state of Louisiana is as quick as multiple stakes winning Heitai. AND he'd drawn the rail. Even with a poor start he was too fast for these. I made him a prime time bet. He broke a beat slow, dueled with a local runner giving the effort of his life, but as they turned for home he drew off as you please! My eleventh win of the day! Now it was time for what was being billed as the National "Race of the Year" - the showdown between 2014 Horse-of-the-Year California Chrome and the 2013 Juvenile of the year Shared Belief. 
They had seen each other in the Breeders' Cup, and that day I'd went with the unbeaten Shared Belief. I thought he was the legitimate Horse of the Year that day and was going to stamp his ticket for the Eclipse Award. But he was slammed right out of the gate by the eventual winner, Bayern - who SHOULD have been DQ'd but was not - and later was slammed again by another horse. But he was still a good fourth, right behind California Chrome. All the "Chromies" were raving about how good their horse was doing and I had no doubt he is one of the stars of the handicap division. But to me it was going to be all Shared Belief today. And I backed up my opinion at the windows by making him my BET OF THE DAY! The race unfolded just as it looked on paper, and as race track announcer Trevor Denman called as they turned for home, ".....this is the race we were dreaming about...." the two stars were head-to-head and in full flight for the wire. But just as I thought, when they hit the 16th pole Shared Belief EASILY disposed of his celebrated rival and drew off under a hand ride! AWESOME!
He'd been allowed to go off at even money so I will be cashing for $60 when I head back to Gulfstream! In the last race of the day, the La Premier Championship, odds-on Sunbean moved easily to the front turning for home but had a late runner blow right by him at the 16th pole and he was third. For the day my numbers were: twelve wins from twenty-nine selections, 41% winners! But here is an ironic note......I was at the races from 11 am until 6:30 pm; then had live races run until 10:45 pm. So I had nearly twelve hours of racing and nearly thirty selections.....but for the day I made a profit - and let's never complain about ANY profit - of $1.00. Yes, one dollar. Where as on Friday from a mere six races I'd made a profit of nearly $100! You gotta love the game of thoroughbred racing. What a great day it was! Check out part two of the highlight video which includes the three Grade 1 wins!
Donn Handicap Day Highlights - Part 2
Dusk At Gulfstream
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