Days 78 - 80

Florida Derby Week Off To A Slow Start

The most anticipated week of the meet started off with a terrible case of seconditis.  On Wednesday I finished 0-for-5, all with added money investments as I ran second THREE times.  I came back on Thursday with only three selections and added another second without scoring yet again.  I spent from 6 am to 6 pm handicapping the Florida Derby card and then Kim & I went out to dinner with our friends in town for the Derby.  After watching the replays I was hoping this would NOT be a pre-cursor to how Derby Day would go, and kept upbeat in thinking that if I was not winning early in the week, then I certainly would have a strong finish to the end of the week! 

Friday March 27
OK, back on the beam!  The opener was my "Bet of the Day" as Awesome Flower was a multiple Gulfstream Park 40% Club play from the Michael Maker barn.  In her last six starts she had run in SIX STAKES, with wins in four of them, and today was running in a $25K starter event!  The drop in class is a Maker Club angle; Javier Castellano was on board, another 40% angle; and finally, she moves from a solid stakes try over the Tampa main track to today's turf event - the surface change was a third Club angle.  She was a prohibitive 1/9 when she left the gate and as the field hit the far turn she was fourth and last in the short field, behind a wall of horses!  Really?  Castellano had been riding - in my opinion - below par as of late with his horses often in trouble or in less than optimal position (unlike the first three plus months of the meet when he seemingly always put his runners in position to score).  But then the leader drifted off the rail and it was all over as Awesome Flower galloped out to score by daylight easily. 

The $25 investment netted me close to $30.  The win and payoff collection was not nearly as big to me as the satisfaction I felt from sticking to my betting in spite of the streak of losses the first two days.  I've said this often, but one of the biggest advantages to my handicapping since I've become a "serious" player is that I KNOW that the wins will come, and in the end my numbers will balance out.  So to stick with the "prime time" investment and be rewarded was big to me - especially with Derby Day tomorrow.  Right back with another added money investment in the second which was today's feature, The Tamarac Stakes for three-year-olds.  The morning line favorite was Mr. Jordan who was unbeaten and had scored in back-to-back stakes events at Gulfstream Park West.  Trainer Eddie Plesa had been quoted that he felt the colt was Florida Derby caliber, but without being able to get him ready in time he was showing up here with an eye towards bigger prizes later.  The main competition, and my top choice was Todd Pletcher's Competitive Edge.  Whereas Mr. Jordan was a perfect 3-for-3, Pletcher's colt was "only" two-for-two, but in my opinion boasted a much stronger resume.  He'd debuted at the prestigious Saratoga meet and was sent off as the 4/5 favorite.  He responded with a big 10 plus length score, then came back to take the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes before going to the bench.  Anything close to those efforts and Mr. Jordan was going to be dunked today!  Competitive Edge broke on top and held Mr. Jordan safe to the top of the lane.  When Mr. Jordan was urged to run, Competitive Edge opened up easily to draw off by eight widening lengths while earning the chart comment, "....drew off as the HANDIEST of winners....."  Easy-peasy pie! 

He paid an overlaid (considering his chances) $3.40 so I cashed for more than $25.  I had considered playing the early double with what appeared to be two short-priced winners, but as I've often learned when I do play anything other than straight win bets, I didn't want to go 50% in my selections and be in the red.  In retrospect it would have been a good bet as it paid $4.20 - doubling your money on two easy winners looks like a money-giveaway after the fact.  I Feel Great looked like a standout in the 7th and went right to the front at even money.  But after the opening quarter dropped back through the field like he had an anchor attached to his saddle, 7th.  In the eighth I backed LA Freeway at 4/1.  He'd won by eleven widening lengths in a fast time while running at a fast pace, all of which told me he could make a successful step up from maiden to winners today.  He stalked the pace but finished evenly to be fourth.  My final bet of the day came in the 9th where I labeled Seventhfleethumor - listed at 8/1 in the program - as my UPSET of the DAY.  I thought the crowd would let him go off at a fair price in spite of the fact that he'd been a fast-finishing second behind a repeat Pletcher turf winner and Javier Castellano being on board because out of that race he'd been claimed AWAY FROM Michael Maker.  But the small outfit that took him was scoring at a big 36% with an amazing $8.68 ROI with those!  Good enough for me!  Castellano had him well back as they approached the far turn, and then just like his last he unleashed a quick turn of foot and quickly picked off runners while moving from fifth to first as they turned for home.  He drew off as tons the best!  My third win of the day! 

The crowd was sharper than I gave them credit for as he left the gate as the 7/5 favorite.  I cashed for nearly $40 on my triple investment to carry a big winning day into the signature event tomorrow.  Later the whole crowd of friends and family were over for our traditional pre-Derby dinner and then I put on an "Inside Look" at the races where I tried to point out some handicapping angles and selections that would help everyone be successfully tomorrow.  Some of the points I made that would prove to be prophetic:

*Castellano, who won five races on the card last year, seems to be "off" as of the last ten days.

*War Correspondent drops out of a Grade 1 event finishing a length behind a multiple stakes winner while making his first start off a layoff.  He looks strong in the Grade 3 Appleton

*Beauty Parlor, in the Orchid, is a first-time European which gives her a hidden class edge

Days 76-77

March 21 - 22: Weekend Highlights

From a racing standpoint, I've seen FAR better weekends. On Saturday I cashed a single ticket as the favorites went down in flames.....the only consolation at the track was that I wasn't the only handicapper who missed all over the board. And I gladly would trade those losses at Gulfstream for the EPIC win by our Florida Panthers Saturday night before a packed house of 17,000 intense fans. The game was the epitome of all the cliches in sports: "do or die," "win or go home," "there is no tomorrow," etc. We are chasing the Boston Bruins for the final playoff spot with eleven games left with three of them against the Bruins. We scored first, but they tied it. After a desperate overtime period it went to the shootout and as you can tell by my photo, we WON! Awesome.  On the Sunday card I had eight selections - have to give myself credit for sticking with the handicapping project, and with the betting.  I've learned that in the long run my selections WILL win out at better than 30% so if I go through a stretch where I'm winning at less than that level I know that a day WILL be coming where I will have a big day (or series of days).  I thought it might just be today as in the first race I was betting, the second.  Tsonga had run two Beyers in the 50's in his last two starts (57-52), and while that's not a particularly strong set of figures, of the twenty-five other races run by his rivals nlyONE figure compared to those two....and that one figure was earned by a 19-race maiden!  Tsonga looked to be in complete control from the moment they approached the far turn in spite of being some six or seven lengths off the top four.  But the rider was sitting confidently and when he shook the reins Tsonga started gobbling up the ground and picking off runners one-by-one.  By the time they reached the top of the lane he collared the front runner and just kept on putting daylight between himself and the rest of the field.  He left the gate as a well deserving favorite and was much the best.  But then, more of "the same racing luck" set in.  In the third I was 5th at 6/5 when Acapulquito led into the stretch and gave way;  in the 5th Friend's Pro was also 6/5, and was outrun before finishing a non-threatenin 4th;  Tricoastal was Javier Castellano's first mount of the day and was 4/1.....no threat, 5th at 4/1.  Wow.  Artemis was the 5/2 second choice and was rallying late....second in the 8th.  Simple Love pressed the pace as the 9/5 favorite in the 9th.  But when they hit the far turn she stopped like she was shot and faded off the screen to finish ninth.  The 10th was my "Best" of the day with seven rivals having a total of six turf wins from 43 combined starts; meanwhile Double The Energy held a 7-for-17 turf resume....AND had Javier Castellano.  Completely, COMPLETEL outrun from the start - 6th as the 3/2 favorite.  Wow-squared.  But I have to say that I DID have the thought run through my mind as I clicked over to the next and final replay in the 11th....."you never know."  As they finished loading into the gate I saw that Super Spender had been 4/1 at post time.  Uh oh - he was a Gulfstream 40% Club play for me - class droppers for trainer Jane Cibelli make the club list - so I had the automatic double investment.  A quick mathematics calculation told me a win here would get me back at least $50 and make my day!  He was sitting in mid-pack some seven lengths off the lead as they approached the turn in this five-furlong turf sprint.  But he was hugging the rail saving all the ground.  I could read the jockey's mind - go wide and lose valuable ground, or take the inside route, a much more likely path to the finish line, BUT risk a troubled trip and being stopped.  He held the rail!  As they swung for home he'd closed to forth and a gap opened.  Super Spender accelerated into the opening between horses and BLEW BY TO WIN!!!!!! 

The $10.60 payoff netted me $53 to close the day and bring me back to even in spite of going 2-for-8.  I'll take it!  A great way to finish the weekend and now look forward to Florida Derby Week!

Day 75

March 20 - THREE WINS from Four Selections

When I handicapped the Friday card I thought it was one of the weakest, or most puzzling, of the meet as I went race after race without having any convictions. In the end I'd found a minimum investment in the 2nd, then two double investments in the 3rd & 4th; and finally - after passing five races - a double investment in the finale. My handicapping was right on the money as three of the four were solid winners.  In the second race I liked General Ann.  She had been off slowly and found herself tenth of eleven runners in her debut six weeks ago for trainer Chad Brown  She made up ground but was carried five-wide through he final turn.  Considering all that I thought it was remarkable she ended up fourth only two lengths off the winner.  Today with a clean trip I thought she'd run an improved race.  She rode the rails well back to the far turn.  She kicked into high gear when swung out for a clear run and blew by to score!

She paid a generous $6.20 so I cashed for over $15.  Right back in the third I doubled the bet on Rebecca's Surprise.  She had multiple races in her past performances that would make her a daylight winner in here.  In her last she chased a runaway winner but was ELEVEN clear of the rest of the field!  My two concerns were that she'd not been to the winner's circle since October at Laurel, and with two straight second place finishes at this level I had to wonder if she still had the heart to win.  No worries!  She drew up four wide on the turn and cantered home with jockey Paco Lopez never moving a muscle....just a hand ride to the wire! 

She paid $3.20 so I cased for over $15 again!  In the fourth I liked Michael Maker's Tex Appeal who was a huge 5/1 at post time.  Led into the stretch and I thought I might have a nice winner, but he tired late to finish third.  My final bet was in the tenth - yes, I skipped the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th races....and none of my top picks won!  Good decision Mr. Mark!  In the finale it was a maiden claimer for three-year-olds going a mere 5 1/2 furlongs.  Twelve of he fourteen starters had been beaten in their last race by a combined 268 lengths!   OH MY!  That's an average of over 20 lengths per horse! You can see that I didn't have to find a superstar to pick the winner here!  Rocket Man Richie was second in his last start and beaten less than a length.  In comparison to the rest of this field he was a Breeders' Cup Champion!  AND the show horse out of that race came right back to win!  I doubled the bet.  'Richie went right to the front and never looked back! 

The third win from four selections paid $3.40 and I cashed for over $15 again.....for the day I was 3-of-4 and collected nearly $50!  One other item worth mentioning...... in looking through the thoroughbred news of the day I was D-E-L-I-G-H-T-E-D to read that the top candidate for the Kentucky Derby, Bob Baffert's American Pharaoh - who was the 2014 Juvenile Champion - has been committed to run in the April 11th Arkansas Derby.....you may remember that Kim and I will be in Hot Springs that day!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!

Day 74

March 19 - 40%....Back On Track!

Initially I was disappointed when two of my selections were scratched out of the Thursday lineup, but as it turned out it all worked out for the best. After struggling with only one winner through the first two days of racing this week I scored with two of five for a 40% strike rate today, and even better was that the second winner was my "BEST" of the day at a more-than-fair price.  The first win on the day came as I went against top jockey Javier Castellano who seems to win nearly every race, BUT like me he seemed to be struggling the first two days. He was on the 8/5 favorite, but she had already lost four in a row, at this maiden-claiming $35K level - the last three at short prices with Castellano on board. My pick was Rockin Round who was dropping out of a $75K spot. She had debuted for $60K at Arlington this summer and was second by a neck, then tried MSW at Churchill. She was beaten less than four lengths and then was the 8/5 favorite with a big closing kick last out. The favorite shot to the lead, but like her most recent she caved in and Rockin Round blew by to score by daylight.

She paid a generous $6.40. In the eighth the circumstances were very similar. It was on the turf, for fillies and mares, and I did NOT like the favorite, who would be ridden by Castellano and was sure to draw attention. The favorite was trained by Chad Brown so there were reasons to like her, but I noted that her three turf wins were in a cheap maiden claimer at the Meadowlands (much lower quality than most tracks I play), and then a 2-lifetime and a 3-lifetime claiming event at Belmont. She'd run in back-to-back optional claimers like this spot here this winter and had been no threat. Conversely, my top choice - Jackie's Daughter - was a Gulfstream 40% Club angle......she was sent out by Michael Maker who's won with better than 40% of his horses dropping in class, and she was. Unlike the favorite who had won for restricted claiming tags, Jackie had won three races back in open nw2x allowance company; then she was in a stakes and last time out was in an open nw3x allowance. That race also came off the turf, where she was beaten only a lenght. Maker is a 40% winner with surface changes as well. She pressed the pace to the turn, accelerated past the leader and romped home easily holding off the favorite. And at a nice $6.20 I cashed for nearly $50!

Days 73

March 18 - Impressive Winner In Today's Featured Captiva Island Handicap

Well, the spin I'll put on the current 1-for-13 skid is that I'm glad that it's happening this week, and early in the week before the weekend which features two graded stakes and most importantly before Florida Derby Day. It's been a puzzling skid because it's not like I had marginal picks, I had SOLID horses. On the special St. Patrick's Day card Tuesday Purely Boy had won five of six, beaten less than a length in his latest AND he was running for Michael Maker as a DOUBLE Gulfstream 40% Club play - running for less than $40K and with Javier Castellano on board - third at even money. And Downey Gap had earned back to back figures that were better than all by one of the 35 races run by her rivals. But after pressing the pace to the turn she stopped and didn't finish the race at 8/5. And in the finale I listed Castellano as an upset possibility on Gorgeous Dream, but thought Anita Partner was a solid price play at 10/1 in the program. Anita Partner went off at 4/1 and was flying at the end, but could not catch the lone speed - Gorgeous Dream with Castellano who paid $25.40 to win. Wow. Then today three added money losses - Kings Over was confidently handled through the turn, collared the longshot leader, but could not get by - 2nd; Aquinnah pressed the pace into the stretch at even money with Castellano, took the lead and couldn't hold on, 3rd. Right back with prime time on Ghost Is Clear who was another Maker-Castellano combination dropping out of ELEVEN stakes races and an allowance race to run in this claiming spot. 4/5 at post time, but was fourth at 6/5. FINALLY snapped the skid when Free As A Bird won the featured Captiva Island going five furlongs on the turf. She broke slowly and was well back, but was picking off horses through the turn. Joel Rosario tried to split horses and was checked, steadied and then complete shut off at the furlong marker. He made a hard right hand turn and at the 16th pole 'Bird "unleashed the fury" and just BLEW by the field to score going away. OK......should have all the losses for the week out of my system by now, right?

Day 71

Disney Day #2

THREE WINS To Close The Week

Today we were off to Disney's Hollywood Studios for our second day of the Disney weekend.  The highlights of the day came at the very beginning when we went on the signature attraction, "The Tower of Terror" and posed for a family pic (which was the BEST photo of the weekend), and then at the end of the day when we went to the "Lights, Motors, Action" Car Stunt Show, followed by dinner at the "Prime Time Café" where it's like eating in the kitchen of a 1950s-1960s All-American home (much like my grandmother's or my own childhood home) and all the waitresses are in character as "your mom."  We were given the "rules of the kitchen" which included my having to remove my hat and all of us taking our elbows off the table.  For all the pictures of the great day (and two videos) go here:  Disney Day #2: Hollywood Studios

Kim and I said good-bye to the kids and got in my cool Nissan 370-Z sports car at 7:30 pm and were home by 10:45 pm.  I then went online and watched the replays from the races Sunday.  I missed with my first two selections, both minimum investments when Hardly ran 4th at 5/2 and Hobbs was second at the same price.  In the fifth I liked first-time starter Munasara in a Maiden Special for sophomores.  He stalked the leader into the stretch then took over as much the best.  Bet way down to 4/5 I cashed for less than $10, but..... a win is a win. 

In the sixth Startk Ravin' Ready was a GP 40% Club play from the Kirk Ziadie barn, but was a dismal 15th at 3/1.  Wow.  The race that made the difference in the bottom linewas next.  On the turf I doubled the be on Michael Maker's Reach For A Kitten.  He'd been listed at 30/1 in the DRF, which I knew was completely out of line.  But I also thought he would NOT be the favorite.  He was close to the pace through the turn, the took a narrow lead into the stretch.  He looked clear at the 16th pole, but the horse he'd collared late would not give up and surged late......PHOTO FINISH! 

Oh so close.  At 9/2 I would have cashed for over $50 and made money on the day.  I scored my second win of the day in the 9th.  Fashion Fund was my "BEST" of the day.  She got top rider Javier Castellano, who had flown around the world from Dubai and arrived here at Gulfstream shortly before the race.  The Beyers that Fashion Fund routinely ran were equal to/better than the lifetime best earned by her rivals.  She pressed the pace to the stretch and then set sail for the wire clear on the lead. 

She paid a more than fair $4.40, so I collected well over $40.  AND it was Castellano's 100th win of the meet - the fourth consecutive season he'd achieved that level of success!  I was a disappointing second in the 10th when 8/5 Trophee was pinned on the rail and never give a chance to run.  That race in a nutshell exemplifies the current difference between the top two riders for Todd Pletcher - John Velazquez often doesn't give his horses their best shot while you can always count on Castellano to have his horse in a position to win if good enough.  In the 11th, my final ply of the day I liked Todd Pletchers' returnee Rock Fall.  He was off slowly but blew by the field on the turn while 4-wide and held the field safe through the lane.  Even money got me back a little more than $20.  So, 9/3-3-1 for the day and a GREAT weekend at Disney.

 

Week 15's Highlights

 

 

Days 69-70

Disney Weekend - Day 1

EPCOT Flower & Garden Festival

Well, Friday the 13th proved to be unlucky for me at the races, but you could not spoil the fun of the anticipation of this coming weekend.  I made my bets this morning and then this afternoon Kim & I headed out towards Orlando to spend the weekend with our "kids" - Julie, Brad & Lauren - for a Disney weekend, my 10th trip of my "Sixteen Trips In Sixteen Months" odyssey.  We arrived at Julie's around 7 pm and went out for a light dinner.  When we were back at her house I checked my racing selections and went 0-for-6 for the day.  Sigh.....  No worries, big races on Saturday at Oaklawn! 

Saturday March 14 
I handicapped the Gulfstream card and then I also handicapped the Oaklawn card as there were three big graded stakes in Arkansas - two of them featured legitimate stars, Eclipse-award winning champions Untapable and American Pharaoh.  It turned out to be a good weekend to be at Disney as there were two listed stakes as the feature races locally, so I didn't mind at all missing the live action.  We had such a great day at EPCOT with the kids.  You can see all the photos here: Disney Day March 14  We left shortly after our dinner at Chefs de France and once back at Brad & Lauren's I logged onto to twinspires.com to watch the replays.  Right away I was a winner and thought I was "off to the races" to a big day.  The opener at Gulfstream was a turf event going nine furlongs.  I liked Midnight Notes who had earned a career best when last racing at this distance and he was dropping in class by 50%.  He tracked the leaders into the turn, blew by and opened up by daylight.  The closers were coming late, but he had enough to hang on comfortably. 

The best part was he was allowed to leave the gate at a BIG 3/1 price.  The nice $8.80 payoff meant I was kicking off the day with a $44 win ticket!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  But the good times at the track were short-lived.  Second at 5/1 in the 5th with a double investment would have made the day and then a very disappointing 4th place finish by Mrs McDougal in the 7th with a triple investment.  That filly had been ultra impressive in her debut maiden win prompting trainer Chad Brown to remark on HRTV that she was headed to stakes company.  She was my top choice last weekend in Tampa's Grade 3 Florida Oaks, but she scratched.  So I thought she laid over this nw1x allowance field.  Disappointed. 


But that wasn't nearly as disappointing as the first of the three stakes races at Oaklawn Park.  Champion 3yo filly Untapable had gone 6-for-7 in 2014 with her only loss a dull effort chasing Breeders' Cup Classic Champion and the other colts in the Grade 1 Haskell (ironically when I was there!).  In her six races against fillies she was unbeaten, including a dominant win in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff.  She was sent off as a prohibitive 1-9 in the Grade 3 Azeri.  All the public handicappers had said she was WAY the filly to bet and the only question was the forecast for a wet track, which she'd never raced on.  As they hit the far turn the 8/1 leader had Untapable breathing down her neck.  John Velazquez eased her out to engage the leader and even took the always telling peek under the arm to see if anyone was coming.  Nope.  But instead of just blowing by they ran head and head for about a 16th of a mile.  Velazquez asked a little more and Untapable responded, but immediately the longshot leader reached down and put her head in front.....and stayed there to the wire.  This miss cost me a break-even day in and of itself.  Sigh.....the only good news is there is a possibility that she may return to Oaklawn and run in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom on the Friday Kim and I are there.  But, the day finished well as I won with three of my last four selections on the day, all of them stakes races.  In the 8th at Oaklawn it was the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap.  There was a lot of publicity for Untapable's stable-mate Tapiture who was exiting a best-of-the-rest second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, but I didn't like him in this spot.  I liked Todd Pletcher's Race Day.  He'd run two huge races in Hallandale, and had just missed in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper.  Today looked to be his day.  Much like Untapable he ranged up to Bob Baffert's Midnight Hawk, and began to edge away.  But much like the Untapable race, that leader would not go away and it was a ding-dong stretch duel.  Not until the final few jumps did Race Day finally have a winning advantage. 

I was disappointed he wasn't a bigger price, but 2/1 was a fair number for him considering his Beyer figures.  The $6.20 price allowed me to cash for over $30.  The next race on the sheet was the co-feature at Gulfstream the Silks Run going five furlongs on the turf.  Power Alert was 6/1 in the program and got my nod as he made his US stakes debut.  His pp's showed four wins in his native Australia, g'day!  And in his first US start he'd earned a big 96 figure.  I probably would have upped the bet had I known that he was going to leave the gate at the odds-on price of 4/5.  He raced three wide around the turn and blew by the field into the lane.  He probably could have won by more, but the rider didn't really ask for anything extra as he safely held the field at bay to win. 

The short 4/5 odds didn't even get me back $10 :(  But hey, a win is a win.  Missed in the finale at Gulfstream at 5/2 before the final bet of the day in the Grade 2 Rebel - the Oaklawn prep for their Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.  And this race featured the return of champion 2yo American Pharaoh.  He had been dazzling in his two Grade 1 wins last fall, but was injured in the week leading up to the Breeders' Cup.  He'd been working sensationally for his comeback and would have been my top play on the basis of his 2yo form.  But he was also the LONE SPEED.  I gave a lot of thought to lowering the bet on Untapable and upping the bet here, but in the end I couldn't see Untapable losing, so I kept her wager the same, but I did up the investment a little on American Pharaoh.  He burst from the gate, took charge while setting less than demanding fractions and when the field began to sprint for home he opened up willing and ran away. 

He was a prohibitive favorite, but like Untapable, he may run back next in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby when Kim and I are on track in April!  So while the loss with the filly cost me a profit n the day, I still cashed on 4-of-13 picks for over 30%!