Day 43

THREE WINS To Start Donn Week!

It was a very good way to kick off one of the biggest weeks of the Championship Meet.  Saturday there are two Grade 1 events, including the first big race of the 2015 when Fox Sports broadcasts live from Gulfstream Park.  But, first things first as we had live racing on Wednesday.  Nora's Music was sent off as a 2/1 co-second choice in the opener and was three wide into the lane looking like she had dead aim on the leaders, but gradually faded to fifth as the rest of the field accelerated to the wire.  In the second we were going a full nine furlongs with sophomore colts who might have an eye on stakes company later in the year.  Yes, there was a Todd Pletcher colt and yes he was my top choice - Madefromlucky.  What made him my pick was that unlike his four rivals today, his maiden win had come HERE and going two turns.  That gives him an edge.  Typically when a horse wins by open lengths and then the runner-up is also daylight clear of the show horse it's often an indicator of a strong performance.  But the real key, I thought, was that Madedfromlucky was making his initial start under Pletcher's care today.  I cannot tell you how very many times I see horses run a peak performance in that situation. I personally think that Pletcher wants to reassure the owners that they've made a wise choice to give him their runner.  So he not only has them primed to fire their best shot, but they are placed in a race where he feels they have an excellent chance to win.  Madefromlucky was a fair price at 1/2 as they loaded into the gate, but by the time they were moving down the backstretch he had been hammered to 1/5.  Stalked the pace while three wide into the lane under John Velazquez and edged clear as they entered the final 16th.  Pletcher was later quoted as saying it was a performance that would have them looking for a stakes race next.

Right back in the third where the field was sprinting five furlongs on the turf in a claiming event restricted to non-winners of two lifetime.  Wildcatpleasures was from an open sprint when he faced "beaten" $25K runners on the dirt to today's $20K spot for 2L sprinters.  Navarro is a Gulfstream 40% Club play with class droppers and over the last four years when Navarro sends out a runner first or second off a layoff at less than six-to-one odds he'd won at a 70% rate!  Normally I would have doubled the bet, but with a career mark of 15/1-4-3 I was not willing to go that deep.  He broke sharply and was challenging for the lead by the time they hit the far turn.  He took command in spite of being wide an proved much the best.  In the fourth race I liked Ackerman Road who was coming off a long layoff.  He forged to the lead in the lane but gradually gave way as they hit the final 16th, 5th.  The "BET of the Day" came in the sixth, a maiden special on the turf for three-year-old fillies.  The first thing that popped off the page as I started scanning through the entries was that none of these fillies - who had racing experience - had shown a lot of ability.  But when I got halfway through the field, there was the winner.  Mrs Mcdougal just leapt off the page to me.  First, she was a $450K Keeneland grad; second she was trained by top turf conditioner Chad Brown; third, she had the leading rider in Javier Castellano.  All of that would point her out as the play, but considering that none of the runners with experience had ever received a figure out of the 60s said she was going to win with authority if she could overcome her inexperience.  She was well bet from the opening bell and would leave the gate at even money.  She was keen to go from the get-go, but Castellano had a hard hold on her as she rated three-wide off the leaders.  He finally let her run as they spun out of the turn and she just ran away and hid.  Following the race Chad Brown was quoted on HRTV that she had been as impressive as he had hoped and that her next start would be in stakes company! 

My final two selections both went off at a nice price (7/2 and 5/1) but both stopped like they were shot finishing well beaten 11th in both cases.  So, I was 3-for-7 on the day - over 40%!