Day 48

A HOT Start To A Cool Week

It was an excellent day of handicapping, and honestly a great day overall.  The day started with a crisp low 50's weather to greet me as I hopped in my cool Nissan 370Z sports car and headed out to Weston for a doctor's appointment at the Cleveland Clinic for a post-surgery follow-up.  The traffic, which I anticipated to slow me down was smooth as can be and I hit every light; I got to the hospital and where I'd had to drive around for over 30 minutes two weeks ago for a parking spot, I pulled right in and parked.  So I arrived obviously early.  No problem, had my book.  When I got to see the doctor he told me that my surgical cut was healing great and that I would notice a change in the way I feel within a couple of weeks.  And then we spent about a half hour talking about hockey and horse racing.  Left for Cypress Bay High right up the road to visit with my pals from my working days.  Got to see Kim in action in her classroom and then spent time with three good lookin' ladies that were close friends of mine.  I got home before noon in plenty of time to enjoy the afternoon's racing.  And what a day of racing it was!  When I had handicapped the card Tuesday morning I thought it was a pretty average to below-average quality card for Gulfstream, and especially for a January afternoon.  But as I went through the card I found six races that I was willing to invest in where I thought I had a solid angle.  Three of them were minimum bets and three were double investments.  Before the racing started I checked for scratches and found that one of the added investment selections in the middle of the card had withdrawn.  I was handicapping the Friday card and so I decided to watch the races on HRTV.  This is the most interesting twist to the day......and I know you will say that this is silly and one has nothing to do with the other, but these ARE the facts.  Generally, and especially this winter season I've found that when I'm home and watch the races live on HRTV I have a very low winning percentage.  So much so that often I may begin watching the races and I'll turn it off and wait to finish watching my selections on twinspires.com later in the evening.  And I seem to have a much better winning percentage if I wait for all the races to be over and watch them at the end of the day.  And I considered this as I turned on HRTV.  But I decided today that (a) this could not have an impact on my racing results, and (b) since I had a pick in the opener I would watch that race and decide from there whether to continue watching or not.  As the Gulfstream Xtra coverage began the two HRTV analysts and on-track analyst Caton Bradar all agreed that Dreamin of Joey, the favorite was clearly the speed of the race and very likely to take them wire-to-wire in the opener.  I had gone in another direction, so I figured I might get a solid price on a Gulfstream Park 40% Club play.  I liked Congrats Rob who was second off the claim for trainer Jorge Navarro.  He was making his second start off a layoff, and according to the Gulfstream Handicapper author Jim Mazur, Navarro had won with 70% of his runners making a first or second start off a layoff when bet down below 6/1.  Add in a jockey switch to Edgar Zayas who is winning at nearly a 50% clip.  Right off the bat 'Joey was out-sprinted to the front.  And while he'd cleared the field after the opening quarter, he'd had to run quickly to get there.  I thought, as Congrats Rob sat right behind the leaders, that this might have been just enough to soften him up.  As they turned for home 'Rob made his move by coming off the rail and had dead aim on the favorite.  At the 16th pole he looked to be making progress but was not past yet......but in the final fifty yards he edged in front and while officially deemed a photo finish and there was some question about the winner, the slow motion replay showed Congrats Rob was the clear winner! 

The $7.20 price meant I was cashing for over $35 and regardless of what happens the rest of the day I am a profitable winner!  WHOOOOOO HOOOOOOOO!  You'll note that the winning photo above (and the remainder of this journal entry) is taken of my big screen TV projecting the winner.  I did this because of how unusual it is that I win while watching the races live on HRTV!  In the second I didn't have a play.  The third was a non-winners of two lifetime event with fillies and mares going a one-turn mile.  This race is just another example of what a good day today was.  My top pick was being sent out by trainer Luis Duco.  Duco's son - and assistant - is a friend of ours through our daughter Julie - and any time we see each other we talk horses.  But the thing is, their barn rarely, and I mean RARELY win....especially at the Championship Meet.  And my selection, Arabian Dream, was typical of their runners.  She had compiled a career resume of 15 / 1 - 3 - 6 ...... YIKES.  I next-to-never bet these kind of runners, but one of the many lessons I've learned since I've become a more serious handicapper is that there is no rules written in stone as "must bet" or "must avoid" horses.  You never know where you will find a runner with an edge.  Two things I liked about her chance were, (1) in BOTH of her last two starts 'Dream had been clear on the lead and looked to be the winner, only to give it up late; and (2) today she got a big rider upgrade to Luis Saez.  I figured that Saez would have a much better judge of the pace and would be able to ration her speed to get her home in time.  And I noted that Saez had only accepted the mount four times for the Duco barn, and had won with two of them - 50%!  Right to the front and clear by five!  Into the lane she was still four in front and looked to be in hand galloping to the wire.....and then you could tell.  She was being asked to run and she wasn't accelerating while the field was rapidly gaining ground.  As they got inside he final 100 yards I could tell that while this would be close, she would last today! 

TWO FOR TWO!  While I only had the minimum on her and she was the 6/5 favorite, a win is a win!  No pick in the 4th, and honestly as I watched the lead-up to the race I considered making a bet on my top selection, No Act.  She was being well bet and everything said she should win as she came into this spot off of two big wins.  But I had passed the race - as I reminded myself when I re-read my analysis - because at TODAY'S distance of six furlongs she was 2-for-16.  Not willing to take a short price with those kind of numbers.  Sure enough, she did not make the lead and ran out of ground with her rally and my second pick - who had run a career best figure in her best and I questioned if she could repeat - wired the field.  The fifth race was a five furlong turf sprint, a starter optional claimer.  As I wrote, "....how many times do you get 8/1 on a Javier Castellano mount...."  He was taking the reins for Jane Cibelli on #11, Aquinnah.  Cibelli was enjoying a strong meet with 24% wins overall and much like with Arabian Dream and Luis Saez, Castellano had only accepted eight mounts for Cibelli, but he'd won with FOUR of them, 50% again, at a big $3.40 ROI.  I knew I wouldn't get 8/1, but Aquinnah figured to be a nice price.  Well, when HRTV switched to Bradar with minutes to post time Aquinnah was the favorite and she remarked how surprised she was because she thought there were at least two others more deserving of being the winner.  I disagreed and saw the wide post as a plus to sit just off the pace setters into the lane and open up.  It didn't hurt my chances that the inside runner I thought would be the speed of the speed did not break sharply and was interfered with by the filly that DID make the lead.  But the race unfolded the way I saw it going.  Castellano had his filly poised right off the flank of the leader and in spite of floating a couple paths wide into the stretch when he asked her to sprint home she opened up easily and scored by daylight!  THREE FOR THREE....what a great day I'm having (watching them win on my big screen HD TV!). 

Aquinnah had floated up a little in price and paid $5.60, so I was adding nearly $30 to my winnings for the day.  As unusual as today's story is - especially in regards to watching/not watching on TV - it's about to get a little more weird!  No bet in the 6th, the 7th was my scratched selection, and no bet in the 8th.  So I turned off the TV and was doing some work on the computer.  I checked the time and it was approaching post time for the 9th where I had Bikini Beauty.  She had been the focus of the DRF story for today, but the drawback was she was being ridden by Joe Bravo in this marathon turf event.  The horse appeared a legitimate win threat, but Bravo has really been struggling at this meet with a 5-for-101 record.  As a result I've avoided him at nearly every turn.  But here he was riding for Christophe Clement and they've always been a dynamic team, and still - in spite of Bravo's current record overall - were winning at a 21% clip at Gulfstream.  Legitimate horse, nice price (7/1), and a sharp human connection.....I'm in.  But right out of the gate I knew THIS is why Bravo is not winning here.  Unlike when he rides at Monmouth (or anywhere earlier in his career) he did not give his mount a chance.  Right away she's between horses, running up on heels of the ones in front of her.  Get her out in the open or take her back?  No, he keeps her where she is an all the way through the turn she's struggling to run while he's blocked, pulling back on her.  Into the lane, swing wide or dive to the rail?  No, stays where he is and the horse is fighting him the entire way.  WOW.  Finally at the 16th pole he switches out and she kicks into high gear, but it is WAY too late, fourth.  Sigh......at least I only had the minimum on her, and hey, let's not be greedy as I've cashed on three winners already.  As I continued to work online the final race was coming up and both Ron Nicoletti and Christina Bossanakis - the Gulfstream analysts - were talking about how Move The Chains, the favorite and my pick in the finale, just stood out over this field AND how she looked a picture in the walking ring.  This caught my attention so I checked the multi-race payoffs and she was being pounded in these wagering pools.  Then it hit me......where did I watch the first three bets?  On the big screen, and they WON!  Where did I watch the fourth pick, on the computer and I LOST!  So I doubled the bet, turned the computer off and went into the living room to the big screen television.  My one concern about Move The Chains, in spite of the fact that she was second last out, she was WELL clear of the show runner.  And that was for a $75K tag, today she was plunging to a $25K level.  Was this a red flag?  And the rider was NOT one of the top jockeys, only one win from fourteen mounts.  But I thought she seemed much the best in the field.  Move The Chains stalked the leaders into the lane, moved off the rail and seemed to be spinning her wheels to the 16th pole......it was a red flag drop....but then she found her best stride and blew by to score by daylight! 

My FOURTH win of the day!  So for the day I finished with four wins from five selections (and watched them all on the big TV), and had a profit of well over $50!  A great start for the day.