Tampa Bay Derby Day
Gulfstream Handicap Day / Big 'Cap Day
Today was a H-U-G-E day in the thoroughbred racing world. In addition to the multiple graded stakes at Tampa, Gulfstream, and Santa Anita there were also to graded stakes in New York. After handicapping those four tracks, I added in the Fair Grounds and was set to go with over thirty selections on my sheets - eleven of which were stakes and eight of those graded stakes. With all of Kim's family in town for the weekend I bid them a fond farewell around 11 am and headed off to enjoy what I anticipated being a big day. And as you'll see, I was NOT disappointed! My first selections were the early double at Tampa. In the opener I liked a longshot, Coomer at 10/1 in the program. He left the gate at 6/1 and never really was in contention. The second half of the double was another price play. The second was a 6 1/2 furlong sprint and was carded as a $40K overnight handicap. The field was littered with horses with black type on their resume - this easily could have been a name/listed stakes event. But I went with a horse that did NOT have stakes results on his resume. The race appeared to have a LOT of early speed and Tairneach was turning back from a route. He had been a late running third in a two-turn optional allowance that carried a $100K price tag - obviously a high quality event. Looking down his pp's I saw an example of a route-to-sprint move and he'd drawn off with authority. He was the bet at 5/1 in the program. Just as I had anticipated a sizzling speed duel developed. The two favorites knocked heads through a :22 flat and :44 and change pace duel. You can't go :44 and change at Tampa unless you are truly talented and hang on to finish. As they hit the far turn Tairneach was hitting his best stride. As they turned for home he was in full flight of the front runners. Inside the 16th pole he collared the surviving speed horse and was clear on the wire. And the best part - he paid a juicy $10.40! I cashed for almost $26 to kick off the day. Worthy of a "selfie" which I posted on Facebook! 
Next in my program was the second from Gulfstream. This was a Maiden Special for three-year-olds on the turf. Yes, there was a Pletcher runner, and yes he was my pick. But the issue was that this race was carded for a mile and three sixteenths and NONE of these maidens had ever gone this far previously. So making a pick was largely guesswork. Under normal circumstances I'd have passed the race, but at Gulfstream, in a 3yo maiden event.....I'm never going to let a Todd Pletcher horse win and not have it. I doubled the bet on Tapkee. When the crowd hammered him down to 3/5 at post time I felt that the betting action clearly meant "somebody knew something!" He pressed the front runner into the far turn and they were well clear of the rest of the field. I knew at any minute Javier Castellano would accelerate by and win for fun. But at the furlong marker it was the longshot leader that accelerated and left Tapkee running for second money. At Aqueduct Storied Lady was sent off as the 8/5 favorite in the overnight Cat Cay Stakes. Wide on both turns, fortunate to be third I thought after losing a ton of ground. Back to Tampa where Good Pick Nick seemed like a standout in a Maiden Special. The Stonestreet Stable colt was a $625K Keeneland grad and had been the favorite in his Aqueduct debut, but he failed to fire. He was even money here in his 3yo debut, but was second, however he was SEVEN clear of the show. A good recent work pointed him out to win today. He rallied four wide into the late and with a surge at the wire it was a PHOTO finish......second. Sigh. Next was the fourth at Gulfstream in a "redo" of a turf event from last Saturday's washout card. In this spot last week I'd favored a Bill Mott horse. But while he was in the field again today, Mott had switched riders to Joe Bravo. As I've written throughout the meet, this guy can't get a winner home with over 100 losses. Not for me today. Instead I went with Inchcape. He had been second at this nw2x level EIGHT times already! But today he got Javier Castellano - he SHOULD make the difference. The big priced front runner went on an insane front-running mission going :21.4 and :44.3 in this mile and a sixteenth event.....stupid. On the far turn the field inhaled him and Inchcape moved off the rail into the lane from third to burst to the front and win. HORRAY! Wait.....objection, AGAINST ME! It was on the turn, but the front-runner who was in the midst of plunging through the field like he had an anchor tied to him. No way they let that minor event - which I didn't think was interference anyway - stand. And they didn't! My first win at Gulfstream and Inchcape paid a nice $6.60! The fourth at Aqueduct was next and it was the first of the graded events in my program, the Grade 3 Tom Fool. Salutos Amigos had won three straight stakes races, two of them Grade 3 events like this. As an off-the-pace sprinter Salutos Amigos can be a victim to the pace flow, but last time out his main rival had been loose on an easy lead and was four clear into the lane. STILL 'Amigos ran right by him. With a contested pace anticipated today he looked like a slam dunk. My only "concern" was voiced by the DRF stakes analysts in their video preview, and that was at some point the horse had to hit a wall and not perform up to his current hot form. I thought that today was not going to be that day with the way the race set up. When they completed the opening quarter and Salutos Amigos was already stalking the dueling front-runners in third, only three off the lead I knew I was home free. Sure enough, at the top of the lane he accelerated and romped. 
You HAD to believe that even the casual fan with a program would see how consistent this guy was AND he was facing virtually the same field today - certain to be 1/9 or maybe 1/5. NO, they let him go at a very big 3/5 and I was cashing for over $30 with my "prime time" investment! After missing in a Tampa allowance (4th at 4/5) I had the biggest disappointment of the day. I had very much been looking forward to seeing Todd Pletcher's Daredevil run in last Saturday's Grade 2 Swale. So when they cancelled the second half of the card, then announced it would be run today I was pumped up that Daredevil was declared ready to roll. But when I read Javier Castellano's comments that he didn't like the #1 post and he'd have to see how the race played out, that just didn't seem to glow with the kind of confidence I'd have with a horse that was considered one of the two-year-old stars and a Kentucky Derby contender. He broke slowly and was quickly fourth, some six or seven lengths out of it. But while I would have preferred to see him on the engine, I was ok with him being "schooled" on how to rate today because I was convinced he was/is a legitimate star. He made his move on the turn and quickly gained second, but the front running third choice was not going to be caught today. Sigh.....Daredevil had been my Gulfstream "Best" of the day. Santa Anita was ready to open their Santa Anita Handicap card and I liked runners I both halves of the early double. Sheer Talent in the opener had suffered a miserable trip at this level last out when wide and steadied but was sill second beaten less than a length. He went off at even money but was fortunate to get third when VERY wide, again. In the second half Alfiero was dropping out of MSW company where he had dueled through a sizzling :21 and change half mile. Looked long gone on the front with the drop in class. He led comfortably into the stretch, but when it was time to accelerate to the wire he was empty - fourth at 5/2. At the Fair Grounds Commander Sport was a longshot front-runner - never made the lead. WOW. Back to Tampa for the 7th, an entry-level allowance. I liked Songsational who had aired in his debut last time out. Now I get it that a horse's first start against winners is often his most difficult test of his career, but he had been "ridden out" as tons the best while earning a 90 BSF that day and even a regression probably put him back in the winner's circle. As they approached the far turn I could tell the rider had a snug hold on him, not wanting him to move too soon in this 7 furlong test. Midway through the turn he asked for run, but by now he was 3-wide and the two leaders had set sail for the finish. Still, Songsational was making up ground.....could he get there in time? Determinedly he kept fighting and finally inside the final 100 yards he had the momentum to push by to keep his record perfect at 2-for-2.
While Daredevil had been my "best" at Gulfstream, in the 7th Wisecracker was many other handicapper's "best." He had debuted by dueling on the lead and then finishing second best - while some three lengths clear of the show - behind Todd Pletcher's new star, Khozan. That one had come back to romp in allowance company and was pointed for the Florida Derby until suffering an injury this past week. Wisecracker was the heavy 3/5 favorite and was in control of the race into the stretch, but when a late runner came to him he had no resistance. Still, second best, but that's no good to me with my WIN ticket! I again was loose on the lead, this time at Aqueduct with Elusive Talmo at 5/2 in heir 7th, but again my pick weakened. What is it with I'm always zigging when they are zagging? Last week I had predominately closers and could not get there in time, and this week I have the lead and can't get to the wire first! Next in my program was the Challenger Stakes at Tampa for older runners going a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt. As a three-year-old General A Rod had won the Gulfstream Park Derby on January 1 and then run in all the Derby preps before finishing third in the Florida Derby. Then he ran in all three Triple Crown Races. He was off from the Belmont in June until an allowance here in January, but he faltered as the odds-on favorite for Michael Maker. The owners moved General A Rod out of Maker's barn and into Todd Pletcher's. If there is one lesson I've learned while handicapping Saratoga and Gulfstream, it's that when an established horse moves into the Pletcher barn he nearly ALWAYS spots him to win and the horse runs one of his best career races. So when General A Rod showed up here, first time Pletcher, in a listed stakes, I knew he was the bet. He was handled confidently to the far turn when Johnny Velazquez let him go and he quickly was clear by two and romped home handily!
He was a very fair 9/5 at post time and I cashed for nearly $30! Missed at even money at the Fair Grounds before going back to my seat in Section 101 to watch the 8th at Gulfstream Park. This was a Maiden Special for 3-year-olds. My pick was a Todd Pletcher first-time starter, ridden by Javier Castellano, who as a $300K sales purchase. Now ANYBODY who knows ANYTHING about racing, especially at Saratoga or Gulfstream KNOWS that no matter how you cut it, any Pletcher first-time starter - especially one that's sold for that price AND has the top rider - MUST be one of the favorites if not THE favorite. Yet the DRF linemaker made Chipit 20/1 in his morning line odds. Seriously? When the gates opened Chipit broke slowly and was quickly in the back - NEVER a good thing when the race is only 5 1/2 furlongs. But this is why Castellano is king here......never had a panic attack, just let the horse get his feet under him and at the top of the far turn began advancing. He split horse coming out of the turn and had dead aim on the leader. He was wide into the stretch but seemed to have all the momentum and was in front on the wire. Apparently many handicappers shared the DRF linemaker's opinion because this Pletcher colt, who should have been odds-on went off at 2/1 and paid $6.80......cashed for nearly $35!
March 7 Video Highlights: Part 1
Even if I didn't see the race unfolding like that! The payoff of $4.60 meant I'd cash for nearly $35! The Grade 3 Hillsborough from Tampa was approaching post time by the time the El Kabeir race was official. The DRF stakes analysis, and an article I'd read, both listed this race as the best betting race and most wide-open of the day. And while there were many graded stakes winners in the field, I thought that Stephanie's Kitten was the CLEAR choice. She was exiting EIGHT STRAIGHT Grade 1 appearances when entered in this Grade 3 spot. She was last seen running a good second in he Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf to loose-on-the-lead Dayatthespa and nearly caught her. Many felt if she'd won that race - and she would have if anyone had pressured Dayatthespa who normally could never run that far - then Stephanie's Kitten might have been Turf Filly & Mare of the Year. The only question was the layoff. That was negated by two factors in my opinion. First, Chad Brown is excellent with layoff types, especially on the turf. But most importantly I am very familiar with Stephanie's Kitten's owners, Ken & Sarah Ramsey. These people do not EVER spot a horse to set up another race, get some conditioning, etc. They enter with one thing and one thing in mind only - TO WIN! If they don't think they can win, they don't run. So I was very confident she could win. She rated nicely inside while saving all the ground in 4th or 5th to the turn. John Velazquez patiently waited behind a wall of four others and when they fanned out into the lane a big seam opened on the rail and it was ALL OVER! Stephanie's Kitten blew by and won under wraps!
Another very fair price of $4.80 - considering she's a multiple graded stakes winner exiting eight Grade 1 events. Two graded stakes wins in a row! I had time to see the prices posted before making my way to the rail for the feature at Gulfstream, the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap. When I looked at the field, and there were only six running, I could see that in spite of the short field, it was a very talented field. Five of the six were graded stakes winners and four of them I could easily see finishing first, the other would have been a small surprise. But as I considered the field I thought that the key here was the timing of the race. And this is one of the great things I really enjoy about handicapping. There is no "system" or a right way or a wrong way to look at a race. Every race at every track on every day of racing is unique in and of itself with the key to winning being something very unique to these particular horses on this particular day. So here's how I saw the contenders......Valid is a very good horse, but a Grade 3 is about his limit, and this is a Grade 2. Also, he has been running regularly since the fall, so I think he's chances of running a peak race are slim. Private Zone won back-to-back Grade 1 events in New York in spite of being based in California. Today he was first time Jorge Navarro - and that is always a strong angle, but that's usually in claiming company. I think he runs his best in New York for some reason. And while many thought he was clearly the one to beat as the lone speed, I thought he'd be compromised by Valid, just to his outside who never lets anyone loose on the front. Wicked Strong is a Grade 1 winner, but today he is coming off a long break, dating back to September, and while he COULD win, I think ownership is considering many longer races for bigger money. This is to be his "kickoff race" for the season. That brings me to Honor Code. He was considered a Derby candidate at this time last year but then he lost in allowance company in his 3yo debut and was subsequently hurt. He wasn't seen from February to November when he won a sprint race - seemingly too short for his style. Now he had a couple of months to get ready for this race. I felt like Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey wanted to make a statement today that his horse WAS as good as advertised and WILL be a player in the handicap division. AND he had top rider Javier Castellano riding today. It just seemed so clear to me. I was right about everything except one thing.....I never saw Honor Code quickly disappearing out of the TV picture as the race began. It was only a one-turn mile and by the time they were halfway down the backstretch he was completely out of the pan version of the monitor. OK, I thought, he's a closer, he'll move soon. The dueling leaders - just like I thought, Private Zone and Valid - were setting fast fractions as they hit the far turn and STILL no Honor Code. In fact the little chicklets along the bottom of the screen did not include his #1! But midway on the turn here came a blur of green silks; even race track announcer Larry Colmus called out that he was making progress. As the turned for home he still had about eight lengths to make up and was now running in tandem with Wicked Strong. At the 16th pole he had all the momentum, but the wire was coming up fast.........NAILED THEM about two jumps before the wire! WHOOOOO HOOOO! Not only do I win, but I was SOOO right in my handicapping thinking! I LOVE IT!
And, he had gone off at a generous 5/2, so I cashed for $35 more! THREE stakes wins in a row! I got inside just as the Fair Grounds' 7th field was hitting the far turn, an my pick, Trifecta, was surging to the front in this maiden claiming turf. WINNER! My fourth consecutive win - another $23! They were just across the wire when the field began loading into the gate for Tampa's featured Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. Again, I get it that every handicapper has their own opinion, but it seemed SO obvious to me. Carpe Diem from the Todd Pletcher barn had been written about back in early summer as one of his future stars to watch. He had not debuted until late in the meet, but when he did he was my "BEST" of the day and won off easily in a 5 1/2 furlong sprint. He showed up next going two turns at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity, and won again! His final stop in his juvenile campaign was the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He made up a lot of ground and was moving on the leader when Texas Red freaked and blew by to win. Still, Carpe Diem cleared the rest of the field and was a best-of-the-rest second. Off from November to this race I knew Pletcher and the WinStar ownership group had Kentucky Derby on their mind. They would want to get the Derby qualifying points today so they could have options before the first Saturday in May. They would not have mapped out this campaign with this race to kick off the season as a prep because that would mean they would HAVE to win the next one to get into the Derby. After being a bit of a handful to load Carpe Diem stalked the leaders to the far turn. John Velazquez shook the reigns as they made their way through the turn and in a blink of an eye he was in front. As they were about to spin out of the turn I saw him peak under his arm - that's the best sign to see in racing when your jockey is looking around to see if anyone is coming! He was on a daylight lead into the lane and accelerated to the furlong pole before winning in hand!
My fifth win in a row and FOURTH STAKES in a row! WOW I am having a good day! Particularly at Tampa where Carpe Diem was my fifth winner on their card and the third stakes winner there! I felt like Carpe Diem should have been 2/5 or 3/5, but instead was allowed to go off at even money. I had bet "prime time" on him as my "Tampa Best" of the day so I cashed for $40 more! I knew I'd had a good day, and while I certainly was hoping to win a couple more races before leaving, the way the day would turn out would now rest on the outcome of Santa Anita's featured race, the Big Cap! I was a good second at 5/1 in Gulfstream's 11th, then a best-of-the-rest second in Santa Anita's last Derby prep before the Santa Anita Derby, again at a nice price (4/1 on Prospect Park who chased Bob Baffert's unbeaten Dormund who was loose on an easy lead). An even trip in the 12th at Gulfstream resulted in a fourth place finish before I left the track. Once I got home I watched the China Doll for 3yo fillies on the turf at Santa Anita. As I remarked earlier on camera in a clip I ended up not using, I would have passed the race but Curlin's Fox was Brad Free's BEST of the day, and I have too much respect for his opinion to let one of those go. She was flying late, but just missed, my EIGHTH second place finish of the day. I had DVR'd the Florida Panthers' hockey game and was watching the first period when they loaded into the gate for the $1 million, mile and a quarter Santa Anita Handicap. Shared Belief was my pick. He looked to lay over this field on paper, but as I said, still, it's a horse race. I had a little nagging feeling that maybe this could be a big upset in the making, but still, I had confidence and before I left for the races I pulled a $100 bill out of my envelope to put on this race alone. But as I approached the window I was wavering and thought, "mmmm, maybe $50 to win." I called out a prime time bet on the 9th, the Grade 2 San Carlos but my horse was scratched. Brief pause as I considered this, and then I made it - "Santa Anita, race 11 - $100 to WIN on #5!" And I took my ticket! As the betting opened and up until three minutes before post time Shared Belief was 1/9. And that was what he should be. Part of my consideration to back off the bet was that I'd be wagering $100 to win $10. But I had hopes that maybe I'd get more.....even so, it wasn't about the money, it was about my confidence that he WAS the best horse in North America and SHOULD have been Horse of the Year. He floated up to 1/5 as they left the gate. Moreno, a Grade 1 winner went right to the front and was loose on the lead. I thought the pace was a little fast and as they approached the far turn Shared Belief was still in mid-pack. But as they hit the turn there was the familiar black cap on Hall of Fame Mike Smith's head gliding up on the outside inhaling horses one by one. He quickly was up on the outside of Moreno and as they turned for home he cleared the field and was on a daylight lead! STILL, Mike Smith sat motionless! In the final 16th after never even raising the stick or shaking the reigns, Smith motored him down to a canter. TONS the best, or as Trevor Denman called it, "....poetry in motion....."
When the prices came up he'd floated up on more tick and paid $2.60. I would cash for $123 and that - like the Salutos Amigos payoff, was giving money away! For the day I'd won nearly 40% of my races overall, and had picked SIX graded stakes winners from eight graded stakes selections! I had a nice profit of nearly $35 as well. And to top off the day, the Panthers won in a shoot-out to move within two points of a playoff spot! What a G-R-E-A-T day!
March 7 Video Highlights: Part 2
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