Days 69-70

Disney Weekend - Day 1

EPCOT Flower & Garden Festival

Well, Friday the 13th proved to be unlucky for me at the races, but you could not spoil the fun of the anticipation of this coming weekend.  I made my bets this morning and then this afternoon Kim & I headed out towards Orlando to spend the weekend with our "kids" - Julie, Brad & Lauren - for a Disney weekend, my 10th trip of my "Sixteen Trips In Sixteen Months" odyssey.  We arrived at Julie's around 7 pm and went out for a light dinner.  When we were back at her house I checked my racing selections and went 0-for-6 for the day.  Sigh.....  No worries, big races on Saturday at Oaklawn! 

Saturday March 14 
I handicapped the Gulfstream card and then I also handicapped the Oaklawn card as there were three big graded stakes in Arkansas - two of them featured legitimate stars, Eclipse-award winning champions Untapable and American Pharaoh.  It turned out to be a good weekend to be at Disney as there were two listed stakes as the feature races locally, so I didn't mind at all missing the live action.  We had such a great day at EPCOT with the kids.  You can see all the photos here: Disney Day March 14  We left shortly after our dinner at Chefs de France and once back at Brad & Lauren's I logged onto to twinspires.com to watch the replays.  Right away I was a winner and thought I was "off to the races" to a big day.  The opener at Gulfstream was a turf event going nine furlongs.  I liked Midnight Notes who had earned a career best when last racing at this distance and he was dropping in class by 50%.  He tracked the leaders into the turn, blew by and opened up by daylight.  The closers were coming late, but he had enough to hang on comfortably. 

The best part was he was allowed to leave the gate at a BIG 3/1 price.  The nice $8.80 payoff meant I was kicking off the day with a $44 win ticket!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  But the good times at the track were short-lived.  Second at 5/1 in the 5th with a double investment would have made the day and then a very disappointing 4th place finish by Mrs McDougal in the 7th with a triple investment.  That filly had been ultra impressive in her debut maiden win prompting trainer Chad Brown to remark on HRTV that she was headed to stakes company.  She was my top choice last weekend in Tampa's Grade 3 Florida Oaks, but she scratched.  So I thought she laid over this nw1x allowance field.  Disappointed. 


But that wasn't nearly as disappointing as the first of the three stakes races at Oaklawn Park.  Champion 3yo filly Untapable had gone 6-for-7 in 2014 with her only loss a dull effort chasing Breeders' Cup Classic Champion and the other colts in the Grade 1 Haskell (ironically when I was there!).  In her six races against fillies she was unbeaten, including a dominant win in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff.  She was sent off as a prohibitive 1-9 in the Grade 3 Azeri.  All the public handicappers had said she was WAY the filly to bet and the only question was the forecast for a wet track, which she'd never raced on.  As they hit the far turn the 8/1 leader had Untapable breathing down her neck.  John Velazquez eased her out to engage the leader and even took the always telling peek under the arm to see if anyone was coming.  Nope.  But instead of just blowing by they ran head and head for about a 16th of a mile.  Velazquez asked a little more and Untapable responded, but immediately the longshot leader reached down and put her head in front.....and stayed there to the wire.  This miss cost me a break-even day in and of itself.  Sigh.....the only good news is there is a possibility that she may return to Oaklawn and run in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom on the Friday Kim and I are there.  But, the day finished well as I won with three of my last four selections on the day, all of them stakes races.  In the 8th at Oaklawn it was the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap.  There was a lot of publicity for Untapable's stable-mate Tapiture who was exiting a best-of-the-rest second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, but I didn't like him in this spot.  I liked Todd Pletcher's Race Day.  He'd run two huge races in Hallandale, and had just missed in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper.  Today looked to be his day.  Much like Untapable he ranged up to Bob Baffert's Midnight Hawk, and began to edge away.  But much like the Untapable race, that leader would not go away and it was a ding-dong stretch duel.  Not until the final few jumps did Race Day finally have a winning advantage. 

I was disappointed he wasn't a bigger price, but 2/1 was a fair number for him considering his Beyer figures.  The $6.20 price allowed me to cash for over $30.  The next race on the sheet was the co-feature at Gulfstream the Silks Run going five furlongs on the turf.  Power Alert was 6/1 in the program and got my nod as he made his US stakes debut.  His pp's showed four wins in his native Australia, g'day!  And in his first US start he'd earned a big 96 figure.  I probably would have upped the bet had I known that he was going to leave the gate at the odds-on price of 4/5.  He raced three wide around the turn and blew by the field into the lane.  He probably could have won by more, but the rider didn't really ask for anything extra as he safely held the field at bay to win. 

The short 4/5 odds didn't even get me back $10 :(  But hey, a win is a win.  Missed in the finale at Gulfstream at 5/2 before the final bet of the day in the Grade 2 Rebel - the Oaklawn prep for their Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.  And this race featured the return of champion 2yo American Pharaoh.  He had been dazzling in his two Grade 1 wins last fall, but was injured in the week leading up to the Breeders' Cup.  He'd been working sensationally for his comeback and would have been my top play on the basis of his 2yo form.  But he was also the LONE SPEED.  I gave a lot of thought to lowering the bet on Untapable and upping the bet here, but in the end I couldn't see Untapable losing, so I kept her wager the same, but I did up the investment a little on American Pharaoh.  He burst from the gate, took charge while setting less than demanding fractions and when the field began to sprint for home he opened up willing and ran away. 

He was a prohibitive favorite, but like Untapable, he may run back next in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby when Kim and I are on track in April!  So while the loss with the filly cost me a profit n the day, I still cashed on 4-of-13 picks for over 30%!