Day 74

March 19 - 40%....Back On Track!

Initially I was disappointed when two of my selections were scratched out of the Thursday lineup, but as it turned out it all worked out for the best. After struggling with only one winner through the first two days of racing this week I scored with two of five for a 40% strike rate today, and even better was that the second winner was my "BEST" of the day at a more-than-fair price.  The first win on the day came as I went against top jockey Javier Castellano who seems to win nearly every race, BUT like me he seemed to be struggling the first two days. He was on the 8/5 favorite, but she had already lost four in a row, at this maiden-claiming $35K level - the last three at short prices with Castellano on board. My pick was Rockin Round who was dropping out of a $75K spot. She had debuted for $60K at Arlington this summer and was second by a neck, then tried MSW at Churchill. She was beaten less than four lengths and then was the 8/5 favorite with a big closing kick last out. The favorite shot to the lead, but like her most recent she caved in and Rockin Round blew by to score by daylight.

She paid a generous $6.40. In the eighth the circumstances were very similar. It was on the turf, for fillies and mares, and I did NOT like the favorite, who would be ridden by Castellano and was sure to draw attention. The favorite was trained by Chad Brown so there were reasons to like her, but I noted that her three turf wins were in a cheap maiden claimer at the Meadowlands (much lower quality than most tracks I play), and then a 2-lifetime and a 3-lifetime claiming event at Belmont. She'd run in back-to-back optional claimers like this spot here this winter and had been no threat. Conversely, my top choice - Jackie's Daughter - was a Gulfstream 40% Club angle......she was sent out by Michael Maker who's won with better than 40% of his horses dropping in class, and she was. Unlike the favorite who had won for restricted claiming tags, Jackie had won three races back in open nw2x allowance company; then she was in a stakes and last time out was in an open nw3x allowance. That race also came off the turf, where she was beaten only a lenght. Maker is a 40% winner with surface changes as well. She pressed the pace to the turn, accelerated past the leader and romped home easily holding off the favorite. And at a nice $6.20 I cashed for nearly $50!