Great Handicapping MAKES The Day!
Today was a really unusual day, but I was so thankful for online racing and wagering platforms today that allow me to "go to the races" virtually. After I had handicapped the day I had six selections on the day, but after a selection in the first I was "off" until the 7th. There is no way I would have ever gone out to the races and sat for three and a half hours without betting, even for me....a guy that just loves to be at the races and watch the horses run! In the opener Lure of the South was the obvious class play. But you had to be concerned about the plunge in class as a red flag. But trainer Jane Cibelli, who has been hot overall, is a GP 40% Club member scoring at a huge 60% over the last two winters when Joel Rosario rides - as he was today. A longshot took off through the first turn of this 8 1/2 furlong test and was reminiscent of Presious Passion he was a pole in front down the backside. But he was going too fast too early it looked to me and Lure of the South had dead aim on him as they entered the turn. Unfortunately races at a mile and a sixteenth at Gulfstream have the "first finish line" and the leader did NOT have to hang on the length of the stretch. Just enough to get the win at the early finish wire. My next play wasn't until the 7th, and here was the race that made my day. As a sidenote, the five races I passed in a row - NONE of the horses I picked on top, but didn't have enough confidence in to bet, came home a winner. Good wagering decisions! So the 7th was a claiming event going seven furlongs. At first glance they looked like a rag-tag collection of runners who took turns beating up on each other and similar friends while floating in and out of form. But then I saw the subtle handicapping angle. The horse that caught my eye was #8-Gloton. Check out this edited past performance info:
The first thing I draw your attention to is his career record at Gulfstream (bottom right) - he's made 21 starts over the Hallandale track with a mere two wins. YIKES. That can't be good. Next, check out his trainer: Luis Duco - only 15-for-254 in 2014, and a mere 5-for-54 at Gulfstream this meet. You'll note the jockey is Luis Saez. So here's what I noticed.....a month ago I scored with Arabian Dream. That horse had a career mark of 15/1-3-6. But on that afternoon Duco had enlisted Luis Saez to ride. And that day I noted that over the last two years Duco had won with Saez, out of only four mounts, two times. And he won again for me! So here we are again.....the horse has the ability to at least be close with two back-to-back second place finishes when beaten less than a length. And now the Saez-Duco connection JUST AT GULFSTREAM was up to 2-for-3 at a $4.53 return for every $2 bet. It cannot be a coincidence that either Duco only asks, or Saez only agrees when the mount is live. So I not only bet, but DOUBLED the bet. Gloton sat near the back, as is his usual running style until the field reached the far turn. Saez asked for run and the response was immediate as Gloton noticeably accelerated. He was picking off horses one by one and had the most momentum in the field. He circled the field some six wide through the turn, but by the time they reached the top of the stretch he'd collared the leader AND STILL had the momentum. He surged past and by the 16th pole he was clear by two lengths. A closer was running on late, but it was too little, too late and Gloton had WON! Great job Mr. Mark of picking up on this subtle angle!
Unfortunately, as you can see in the caption, Gloton did not go off at his 8/1 program odds, but he'd had gone off at a very nice 7/2. The $9.40 payoff combined with my doubled-down investment meant I'd be cashing for nearly $50 and I was home free for the afternoon regardless of how the other for races turned out. WHOOOO HOOOOO! In the 8th Southern Stroll was first off the claim for Jorge Navarro and he put Javier Castellano on board - a 36% win angle. Sent off as the 3/2 favorite he never ran a lick and was a distant 9th. Passed the ninth; in the 10th I liked Tarnished - enough to bet, but not with a lot of confidence. He had run well in all four career starts having finished first, second, third, and fourth while earning nearly identical speed figus in three of those (76-78-76). Her last start was the fourth place finish, but she was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths despite coming of a six month break. Toss in that the runner-up had come right back to win and that Alan Goldberg was winning at a sharp 31% and you have enough to make a wager with some degree of confidence. One reason I did not double the bet (or more) was that Hot and Spicy - my second choice - was a mystery. After winning her debut HERE at 13/1 last season she'd been in five straight sakes, and finished second in two of them! But she's been off since October and her start today will mark trainer James Bond's first runner of the meet - on Day 66! Hmmm. Tarnished stalked the leader along the rail for Paco Lopez, swung out at the top of the lane and was clear on a daylight lead at the 16th pole. But then here came a longshot with all the momentum.......WHERE'S THE WIRE!!!!!! PHOTO FINISH! I thought at first glance I won, but the slow-motion replay made me reconsider. But, on the turf at Gulfstream the camera angle is all wrong and you never know who won, even in their "official photos" you have to wonder because the inner red rail is silver in the pics (never have understood this!). The results came up.......
WINNER! She was the 9/5 favorite and I'd only bet the minimum. But hey, I was already in the black for the day, so what ever I got back was clear profit! I'll take the additional $14.50 without any hesitation. In the 11th, a $100K Allowance-Optional claiming event, it was field full of stakes quality runners. I went with Kitten's Dumplings who had raced in four graded stakes, including a Grade 1 in 2013. She was a flat 3/2 favorite in her seasonal debut for Mike Smith at the Fair Grounds - maybe she needed one? She was a GP 40% Club play for Michael Maker. Trailed to the stretch, then improved position slightly to be 6th. And in the finale, a Todd Pletcher FTS on the turf was last all the way around the track as the 5/2 choice. So, for the day I was 6/2-1-0 and profited over $15!
For the week my totals were:
Week 14 Highlights
No comments:
Post a Comment