Day 67

FOUR WINS!

It couldn't have gone any better, well I could have won them all, but that seems a bit greedy!  When I first had looked over the entries to the Wednesday card and scanned through the racing card it looked like a weak collection of races, especially for a Gulfstream Championship meet.  My initial thought was that I'd have a hard time finding a race or two to invest in.  But after my handicapping was completed I had six races I was interested in.  Not only did I score in four of them, but the two I missed were THE ONLY TWO that I invested the minimum!  It's the great thing about this game of thoroughbred handicapping.  You NEVER KNEW when or where your next win or winning day will come from.  And one of the lessons that was again confirmed today is that they pay out for ANY WINNER - you need not pick the winner of a Grade 1 event to have a winning day; you can just as easily win three maiden events and a starter race on a Wednesday afternoon to have a great day at the races!  And like all days at the track, the wins came with great tales to tell.  As I wrote in my analysis of the first race, the opener of the first day of "Derby Month" there were two ways to look at the race....either BL's Wagon provided you with a "free bingo square" to the early double OR you were going to get paid handsomely for finding the upset winner against a vulnerable favorite.  In my opinion the way to go was to take the short price because 'Wagon looked VERY SOLID in my opinion.  She was being sent out by the streaking Larry Pilotti barn which is winning at a monstrous 43% rate and BL's Wagon just dazzled in a FIFTEEN length romp while earning a huge 87 Beyer.  Add in top rider Javier Castellano and she looked formidable indeed.  The concern - would she bounce today?  IF you believed that the hot barn and top rider were not enough to prevent that, you had to consider that even if she bounced by multiple lengths she would still be best in here.  And if you looked down her pp's you'd see a similar romp by 24 widening lengths, which was followed by another daylight romp.  Too good to go against.  Through the first twenty minutes of wagering she was a prohibitive 1/9, which was probably her legitimate odds.  Then she floated to 1/5 and at one point was a "big" 1/2.  Finally she settled at 2/5.  She hit the top of the lane five in front.  Castellano never asked her for her best and she cantered around the track scoring by an official eight length margin. 

I tripled the investment so I was cashing for over $20 to start the week.  In the second I went for the upset with Stranahan Dragon who was 6/1 in the program.  But by post time she was 9/5.  She made up some ground late, but it was obvious she was accelerating through the stretch - an even fourth with the minimum bet.  No bet in the third.  In the fourth it was a maiden claiming event for 3-year-olds for a bottom level $12.5K price tag.  Belstorm - I wrote - was as solid a favorite as you can get at this level.  He had nearly paired figures while racing on the turf and then a one-turn mile n his most recent.  In that last event he was stuck way outside and was near the back before swooping up to grab the lead after six furlongs - the distance of today's race.  But going a mile he weakend to be fourth, but was only beaten two lengths.  A big plus was his rider change from a jockey with only five wins this winter to the second leading rider, Luis Saez, who had piled up 63 victories.  My only concern was the fact that since his last race he'd not had any published works.  Belstorm stalked the pace along the rail behind three dueling leaders, and Saez waited patiently.  When those three floated off the rail he shook the reigns and Belstorm went from two back to three in front in the blink of an eye with the rail-skimming move.  He galloped out in full stride to be over nine clear on the wire.  Ultra-impressive for this level of competition!  WHOOO HOOOO! 

He too went off as the chalk, but he paid $4.20 and the double-down bet returned over $20 again.  I thought the fifth boiled down to two horses and I couldn't separate them, so I passed (the lower priced favorite was an easy winner).  My "price play" of the day came in the 6th where we were going a mile over the turf.  And this, like a lot of my winners during this Gulfstream season, was an example of good handicapping.  There are many angles that can point out a winner, but one that I've found to be consistently successful is what are called "trainer patterns."  Thoroughbred trainers are like the rest of us in our daily lives - when something works, you return to that routine to try and get the same results.  Victory Mast displayed such a "trainer pattern" here.  Check out his past performances:

Three races back he was coming off a long layoff when he was entered in a $35K turf event where he stalked the early pace and then faded.  He dropped down for this $20K level and just missed with a good finishing kick.  Last out he was back in for a $30K tag where he was again close to the pace and then faded.  Today, drops back down to the $20K level.  The upgrade in jockeys was also noted.  He stalked the big priced leader - my second choice - into the turn, collared him as they entered the stretch and then ran away in the final furlong.  HORRAY - my THIRD WIN of the day! 

And when the prices were posted, the generous payoff of $6.20 meant I'd be cashing for over $30!  Much like my other, earlier loss the 8th was a price play - or so I thought.  A MSW for 3yo, without a Pletcher runner, meant a wide open affair.  Uknowwhatimean was a first time starter; a $390K Keeneland purchase with a best of 37 bullet work listed at 10/1 in the program.  He was 2/1 at post time and broke behind the field.  He got going late but was never a threat - even fourth, and like the other miss, with a minimum investment.  The final selection of the day was my "BEST" of the day.  Strict Compliance was a 3yo filly entered in a MSW turf event by top trainer Chad Brown.  And while Brown wins with all kinds of runners, he seems most effective with his turf charges.  Strict Compliance had debuted in mid-October for Brown and in no surprise to me was flying late, finishing second by a diminishing neck.  The surprise was the fact the crowd let her go off at 20/1!  I knew I wouldn't get that kind of price today.  Especially with top rider Javier Castellano on board.  Those two are scoring at a big 31% together here.  Brown's over stats were also very positive angles:  24% wins off the layoff; 35% with second time maiden starters; and one that has been VERY successful for me this winter, Brown runners turning back from a route distance to a sprint distance were winning at a huge 57%.  Castellano had her sitting mid-pack to the turn, and then you could literally see him "step on the accelerator" as she burst by horses as she swooped around the field at least five wide.  She was in front by the time heads were pointed for home, and she lengthened her stride through the lane to draw clear late without having to be pressed for her best. 

She was the obvious favorite, but I'd tripled the bet so I was cashing for over $25!  For the day I finished a superb 4-for-6; I had invested $60 and collected $98.50!  What a great day at the races!