From a racing standpoint, I've seen FAR better weekends. On Saturday I cashed a single ticket as the favorites went down in flames.....the only consolation at the track was that I wasn't the only handicapper who missed all over the board. And I gladly would trade those losses at Gulfstream for the EPIC win by our Florida Panthers Saturday night before a packed house of 17,000 intense fans. The game was the epitome of all the cliches in sports: "do or die," "win or go home," "there is no tomorrow," etc. We are chasing the Boston Bruins for the final playoff spot with eleven games left with three of them against the Bruins. We scored first, but they tied it. After a desperate overtime period it went to the shootout and as you can tell by my photo, we WON! Awesome. On the Sunday card I had eight selections - have to give myself credit for sticking with the handicapping project, and with the betting. I've learned that in the long run my selections WILL win out at better than 30% so if I go through a stretch where I'm winning at less than that level I know that a day WILL be coming where I will have a big day (or series of days). I thought it might just be today as in the first race I was betting, the second. Tsonga had run two Beyers in the 50's in his last two starts (57-52), and while that's not a particularly strong set of figures, of the twenty-five other races run by his rivals nlyONE figure compared to those two....and that one figure was earned by a 19-race maiden! Tsonga looked to be in complete control from the moment they approached the far turn in spite of being some six or seven lengths off the top four. But the rider was sitting confidently and when he shook the reins Tsonga started gobbling up the ground and picking off runners one-by-one. By the time they reached the top of the lane he collared the front runner and just kept on putting daylight between himself and the rest of the field. He left the gate as a well deserving favorite and was much the best. But then, more of "the same racing luck" set in. In the third I was 5th at 6/5 when Acapulquito led into the stretch and gave way; in the 5th Friend's Pro was also 6/5, and was outrun before finishing a non-threatenin 4th; Tricoastal was Javier Castellano's first mount of the day and was 4/1.....no threat, 5th at 4/1. Wow. Artemis was the 5/2 second choice and was rallying late....second in the 8th. Simple Love pressed the pace as the 9/5 favorite in the 9th. But when they hit the far turn she stopped like she was shot and faded off the screen to finish ninth. The 10th was my "Best" of the day with seven rivals having a total of six turf wins from 43 combined starts; meanwhile Double The Energy held a 7-for-17 turf resume....AND had Javier Castellano. Completely, COMPLETEL outrun from the start - 6th as the 3/2 favorite. Wow-squared. But I have to say that I DID have the thought run through my mind as I clicked over to the next and final replay in the 11th....."you never know." As they finished loading into the gate I saw that Super Spender had been 4/1 at post time. Uh oh - he was a Gulfstream 40% Club play for me - class droppers for trainer Jane Cibelli make the club list - so I had the automatic double investment. A quick mathematics calculation told me a win here would get me back at least $50 and make my day! He was sitting in mid-pack some seven lengths off the lead as they approached the turn in this five-furlong turf sprint. But he was hugging the rail saving all the ground. I could read the jockey's mind - go wide and lose valuable ground, or take the inside route, a much more likely path to the finish line, BUT risk a troubled trip and being stopped. He held the rail! As they swung for home he'd closed to forth and a gap opened. Super Spender accelerated into the opening between horses and BLEW BY TO WIN!!!!!!
The $10.60 payoff netted me $53 to close the day and bring me back to even in spite of going 2-for-8. I'll take it! A great way to finish the weekend and now look forward to Florida Derby Week!
When I handicapped the Friday card I thought it was one of the weakest, or most puzzling, of the meet as I went race after race without having any convictions. In the end I'd found a minimum investment in the 2nd, then two double investments in the 3rd & 4th; and finally - after passing five races - a double investment in the finale. My handicapping was right on the money as three of the four were solid winners. In the second race I liked General Ann. She had been off slowly and found herself tenth of eleven runners in her debut six weeks ago for trainer Chad Brown She made up ground but was carried five-wide through he final turn. Considering all that I thought it was remarkable she ended up fourth only two lengths off the winner. Today with a clean trip I thought she'd run an improved race. She rode the rails well back to the far turn. She kicked into high gear when swung out for a clear run and blew by to score!
She paid a generous $6.20 so I cashed for over $15. Right back in the third I doubled the bet on Rebecca's Surprise. She had multiple races in her past performances that would make her a daylight winner in here. In her last she chased a runaway winner but was ELEVEN clear of the rest of the field! My two concerns were that she'd not been to the winner's circle since October at Laurel, and with two straight second place finishes at this level I had to wonder if she still had the heart to win. No worries! She drew up four wide on the turn and cantered home with jockey Paco Lopez never moving a muscle....just a hand ride to the wire!
She paid $3.20 so I cased for over $15 again! In the fourth I liked Michael Maker's Tex Appeal who was a huge 5/1 at post time. Led into the stretch and I thought I might have a nice winner, but he tired late to finish third. My final bet was in the tenth - yes, I skipped the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th races....and none of my top picks won! Good decision Mr. Mark! In the finale it was a maiden claimer for three-year-olds going a mere 5 1/2 furlongs. Twelve of he fourteen starters had been beaten in their last race by a combined 268 lengths! OH MY! That's an average of over 20 lengths per horse! You can see that I didn't have to find a superstar to pick the winner here! Rocket Man Richie was second in his last start and beaten less than a length. In comparison to the rest of this field he was a Breeders' Cup Champion! AND the show horse out of that race came right back to win! I doubled the bet. 'Richie went right to the front and never looked back!
The third win from four selections paid $3.40 and I cashed for over $15 again.....for the day I was 3-of-4 and collected nearly $50! One other item worth mentioning...... in looking through the thoroughbred news of the day I was D-E-L-I-G-H-T-E-D to read that the top candidate for the Kentucky Derby, Bob Baffert's American Pharaoh - who was the 2014 Juvenile Champion - has been committed to run in the April 11th Arkansas Derby.....you may remember that Kim and I will be in Hot Springs that day! WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!
Initially I was disappointed when two of my selections were scratched out of the Thursday lineup, but as it turned out it all worked out for the best. After struggling with only one winner through the first two days of racing this week I scored with two of five for a 40% strike rate today, and even better was that the second winner was my "BEST" of the day at a more-than-fair price. The first win on the day came as I went against top jockey Javier Castellano who seems to win nearly every race, BUT like me he seemed to be struggling the first two days. He was on the 8/5 favorite, but she had already lost four in a row, at this maiden-claiming $35K level - the last three at short prices with Castellano on board. My pick was Rockin Round who was dropping out of a $75K spot. She had debuted for $60K at Arlington this summer and was second by a neck, then tried MSW at Churchill. She was beaten less than four lengths and then was the 8/5 favorite with a big closing kick last out. The favorite shot to the lead, but like her most recent she caved in and Rockin Round blew by to score by daylight.
She paid a generous $6.40. In the eighth the circumstances were very similar. It was on the turf, for fillies and mares, and I did NOT like the favorite, who would be ridden by Castellano and was sure to draw attention. The favorite was trained by Chad Brown so there were reasons to like her, but I noted that her three turf wins were in a cheap maiden claimer at the Meadowlands (much lower quality than most tracks I play), and then a 2-lifetime and a 3-lifetime claiming event at Belmont. She'd run in back-to-back optional claimers like this spot here this winter and had been no threat. Conversely, my top choice - Jackie's Daughter - was a Gulfstream 40% Club angle......she was sent out by Michael Maker who's won with better than 40% of his horses dropping in class, and she was. Unlike the favorite who had won for restricted claiming tags, Jackie had won three races back in open nw2x allowance company; then she was in a stakes and last time out was in an open nw3x allowance. That race also came off the turf, where she was beaten only a lenght. Maker is a 40% winner with surface changes as well. She pressed the pace to the turn, accelerated past the leader and romped home easily holding off the favorite. And at a nice $6.20 I cashed for nearly $50!
March 18 - Impressive Winner In Today's Featured Captiva Island Handicap Well, the spin I'll put on the current 1-for-13 skid is that I'm glad that it's happening this week, and early in the week before the weekend which features two graded stakes and most importantly before Florida Derby Day. It's been a puzzling skid because it's not like I had marginal picks, I had SOLID horses. On the special St. Patrick's Day card Tuesday Purely Boy had won five of six, beaten less than a length in his latest AND he was running for Michael Maker as a DOUBLE Gulfstream 40% Club play - running for less than $40K and with Javier Castellano on board - third at even money. And Downey Gap had earned back to back figures that were better than all by one of the 35 races run by her rivals. But after pressing the pace to the turn she stopped and didn't finish the race at 8/5. And in the finale I listed Castellano as an upset possibility on Gorgeous Dream, but thought Anita Partner was a solid price play at 10/1 in the program. Anita Partner went off at 4/1 and was flying at the end, but could not catch the lone speed - Gorgeous Dream with Castellano who paid $25.40 to win. Wow. Then today three added money losses - Kings Over was confidently handled through the turn, collared the longshot leader, but could not get by - 2nd; Aquinnah pressed the pace into the stretch at even money with Castellano, took the lead and couldn't hold on, 3rd. Right back with prime time on Ghost Is Clear who was another Maker-Castellano combination dropping out of ELEVEN stakes races and an allowance race to run in this claiming spot. 4/5 at post time, but was fourth at 6/5. FINALLY snapped the skid when Free As A Bird won the featured Captiva Island going five furlongs on the turf. She broke slowly and was well back, but was picking off horses through the turn. Joel Rosario tried to split horses and was checked, steadied and then complete shut off at the furlong marker. He made a hard right hand turn and at the 16th pole 'Bird "unleashed the fury" and just BLEW by the field to score going away. OK......should have all the losses for the week out of my system by now, right?
Today we were off to Disney's Hollywood Studios for our second day of the Disney weekend. The highlights of the day came at the very beginning when we went on the signature attraction, "The Tower of Terror" and posed for a family pic (which was the BEST photo of the weekend), and then at the end of the day when we went to the "Lights, Motors, Action" Car Stunt Show, followed by dinner at the "Prime Time Café" where it's like eating in the kitchen of a 1950s-1960s All-American home (much like my grandmother's or my own childhood home) and all the waitresses are in character as "your mom." We were given the "rules of the kitchen" which included my having to remove my hat and all of us taking our elbows off the table. For all the pictures of the great day (and two videos) go here: Disney Day #2: Hollywood Studios
Kim and I said good-bye to the kids and got in my cool Nissan 370-Z sports car at 7:30 pm and were home by 10:45 pm. I then went online and watched the replays from the races Sunday. I missed with my first two selections, both minimum investments when Hardly ran 4th at 5/2 and Hobbs was second at the same price. In the fifth I liked first-time starter Munasara in a Maiden Special for sophomores. He stalked the leader into the stretch then took over as much the best. Bet way down to 4/5 I cashed for less than $10, but..... a win is a win.
In the sixth Startk Ravin' Ready was a GP 40% Club play from the Kirk Ziadie barn, but was a dismal 15th at 3/1. Wow. The race that made the difference in the bottom linewas next. On the turf I doubled the be on Michael Maker's Reach For A Kitten. He'd been listed at 30/1 in the DRF, which I knew was completely out of line. But I also thought he would NOT be the favorite. He was close to the pace through the turn, the took a narrow lead into the stretch. He looked clear at the 16th pole, but the horse he'd collared late would not give up and surged late......PHOTO FINISH!
Oh so close. At 9/2 I would have cashed for over $50 and made money on the day. I scored my second win of the day in the 9th. Fashion Fund was my "BEST" of the day. She got top rider Javier Castellano, who had flown around the world from Dubai and arrived here at Gulfstream shortly before the race. The Beyers that Fashion Fund routinely ran were equal to/better than the lifetime best earned by her rivals. She pressed the pace to the stretch and then set sail for the wire clear on the lead.
She paid a more than fair $4.40, so I collected well over $40. AND it was Castellano's 100th win of the meet - the fourth consecutive season he'd achieved that level of success! I was a disappointing second in the 10th when 8/5 Trophee was pinned on the rail and never give a chance to run. That race in a nutshell exemplifies the current difference between the top two riders for Todd Pletcher - John Velazquez often doesn't give his horses their best shot while you can always count on Castellano to have his horse in a position to win if good enough. In the 11th, my final ply of the day I liked Todd Pletchers' returnee Rock Fall. He was off slowly but blew by the field on the turn while 4-wide and held the field safe through the lane. Even money got me back a little more than $20. So, 9/3-3-1 for the day and a GREAT weekend at Disney.
Well, Friday the 13th proved to be unlucky for me at the races, but you could not spoil the fun of the anticipation of this coming weekend. I made my bets this morning and then this afternoon Kim & I headed out towards Orlando to spend the weekend with our "kids" - Julie, Brad & Lauren - for a Disney weekend, my 10th trip of my "Sixteen Trips In Sixteen Months" odyssey. We arrived at Julie's around 7 pm and went out for a light dinner. When we were back at her house I checked my racing selections and went 0-for-6 for the day. Sigh..... No worries, big races on Saturday at Oaklawn! Saturday March 14 I handicapped the Gulfstream card and then I also handicapped the Oaklawn card as there were three big graded stakes in Arkansas - two of them featured legitimate stars, Eclipse-award winning champions Untapable and American Pharaoh. It turned out to be a good weekend to be at Disney as there were two listed stakes as the feature races locally, so I didn't mind at all missing the live action. We had such a great day at EPCOT with the kids. You can see all the photos here: Disney Day March 14 We left shortly after our dinner at Chefs de France and once back at Brad & Lauren's I logged onto to twinspires.com to watch the replays. Right away I was a winner and thought I was "off to the races" to a big day. The opener at Gulfstream was a turf event going nine furlongs. I liked Midnight Notes who had earned a career best when last racing at this distance and he was dropping in class by 50%. He tracked the leaders into the turn, blew by and opened up by daylight. The closers were coming late, but he had enough to hang on comfortably.
The best part was he was allowed to leave the gate at a BIG 3/1 price. The nice $8.80 payoff meant I was kicking off the day with a $44 win ticket! WHOOOO HOOOOO! But the good times at the track were short-lived. Second at 5/1 in the 5th with a double investment would have made the day and then a very disappointing 4th place finish by Mrs McDougal in the 7th with a triple investment. That filly had been ultra impressive in her debut maiden win prompting trainer Chad Brown to remark on HRTV that she was headed to stakes company. She was my top choice last weekend in Tampa's Grade 3 Florida Oaks, but she scratched. So I thought she laid over this nw1x allowance field. Disappointed.
But that wasn't nearly as disappointing as the first of the three stakes races at Oaklawn Park. Champion 3yo filly Untapable had gone 6-for-7 in 2014 with her only loss a dull effort chasing Breeders' Cup Classic Champion and the other colts in the Grade 1 Haskell (ironically when I was there!). In her six races against fillies she was unbeaten, including a dominant win in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff. She was sent off as a prohibitive 1-9 in the Grade 3 Azeri. All the public handicappers had said she was WAY the filly to bet and the only question was the forecast for a wet track, which she'd never raced on. As they hit the far turn the 8/1 leader had Untapable breathing down her neck. John Velazquez eased her out to engage the leader and even took the always telling peek under the arm to see if anyone was coming. Nope. But instead of just blowing by they ran head and head for about a 16th of a mile. Velazquez asked a little more and Untapable responded, but immediately the longshot leader reached down and put her head in front.....and stayed there to the wire. This miss cost me a break-even day in and of itself. Sigh.....the only good news is there is a possibility that she may return to Oaklawn and run in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom on the Friday Kim and I are there. But, the day finished well as I won with three of my last four selections on the day, all of them stakes races. In the 8th at Oaklawn it was the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap. There was a lot of publicity for Untapable's stable-mate Tapiture who was exiting a best-of-the-rest second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, but I didn't like him in this spot. I liked Todd Pletcher's Race Day. He'd run two huge races in Hallandale, and had just missed in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper. Today looked to be his day. Much like Untapable he ranged up to Bob Baffert's Midnight Hawk, and began to edge away. But much like the Untapable race, that leader would not go away and it was a ding-dong stretch duel. Not until the final few jumps did Race Day finally have a winning advantage.
I was disappointed he wasn't a bigger price, but 2/1 was a fair number for him considering his Beyer figures. The $6.20 price allowed me to cash for over $30. The next race on the sheet was the co-feature at Gulfstream the Silks Run going five furlongs on the turf. Power Alert was 6/1 in the program and got my nod as he made his US stakes debut. His pp's showed four wins in his native Australia, g'day! And in his first US start he'd earned a big 96 figure. I probably would have upped the bet had I known that he was going to leave the gate at the odds-on price of 4/5. He raced three wide around the turn and blew by the field into the lane. He probably could have won by more, but the rider didn't really ask for anything extra as he safely held the field at bay to win.
The short 4/5 odds didn't even get me back $10 :( But hey, a win is a win. Missed in the finale at Gulfstream at 5/2 before the final bet of the day in the Grade 2 Rebel - the Oaklawn prep for their Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. And this race featured the return of champion 2yo American Pharaoh. He had been dazzling in his two Grade 1 wins last fall, but was injured in the week leading up to the Breeders' Cup. He'd been working sensationally for his comeback and would have been my top play on the basis of his 2yo form. But he was also the LONE SPEED. I gave a lot of thought to lowering the bet on Untapable and upping the bet here, but in the end I couldn't see Untapable losing, so I kept her wager the same, but I did up the investment a little on American Pharaoh. He burst from the gate, took charge while setting less than demanding fractions and when the field began to sprint for home he opened up willing and ran away.
He was a prohibitive favorite, but like Untapable, he may run back next in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby when Kim and I are on track in April! So while the loss with the filly cost me a profit n the day, I still cashed on 4-of-13 picks for over 30%!
Proven Handicapping Adage Leads To Price Play WINNER
For the second consecutive day I scored multiple wins and a solid profit. And the excellent day at the races was topped with an exciting win by our Florida Panthers at the arena. The best story of the day came in the first bet of the day. When I handicapped this Thursday card and came to the second, it appeared at first glance that Bellamy Chief was a standout. The race was a six furlong, non-winners of two lifetime claiming sprint. The 'Chief was dropping in class after showing early speed against better, and appeared to be an example of the proven "early speed, class drop" angle. But the closer I looked at his record, the less I liked him. Check out his most recent past performances........
See the pattern? No matter what the race conditions or distance, he quits. Many years ago when I was first starting to learn this great game and how to handicap my best friend and racing buddy Keith Moran was preparing to move back to Illinois. Kim and I asked him over for dinner and afterwards I had him sit down with me at the kitchen table and share his most proven handicapping angles and lessons. One of the things I have always remembered that he told me was this, "...a quitter, is a quitter.......is a quitter." Bellamy Chief looked like the proverbial quitter to me. You COULD make the excuse that his last two were at the wrong distance and he'd appreciate the cut back to six furlongs. But I thought that if he faced true sprint speed early he would cave yet again today. And as I looked over the field, there was the win candidate...the inside speed in #2-Torrid Heat. This guy was turning back from a turf sprint where the early pace is always much faster than a dirt sprint. He'd worked well on the main track, AND the barn was winning with 50% of their surface changing runners (albeit with a limited number of starters) at a big $4.01 ROI. The way I saw the race was Torrid Heat outrunning Bellamy Chief, who would press and then quit, yet again. I also saw the plummet in class from $35K to $12.5K as a red flag. As I watched the live broadcast from Gulfstream, both Ron Nicoletti and Christina Bossanakis extolled the virtues of Bellamy Chief and just saw no way he could lose today. Not so fast my handicapping friends! Sure enough, the gates opened and quickly Torrid Heat was in front. Cruising through the turn in a sharp half mile of :45.3. Bellamy Chief was sitting third and made his move. As heads turned for home he collared Torrid Heat, and they dueled for a 16th of a mile. But as they passed the final pole, the quitter came out in Bellamy Chief and Torrid Heat drew clear to WIN! WHOOOO HOOOOO!
The payoff was a generous $9.40 and I cashed for well over $20! I picked up my phone and immediately texted Keith how I had just scored with a nice priced winner and it all traced back to him. In the fourth Tightly Bridled was bet down from 9/2 to 9/5 and set the pace into the stretch where he gave it up without a fight to finish a well beaten third. In the fifth Todd Pletcher's Gemonade ran as I expected - evenly. But as I wrote, I couldn't let him win at a fair price without a bet. In the seventh we were travelling a marathon mile and three-sixteenths on theturf and everyone seemed to settle on Magic of Reality who had bested several of these earlier in the meet at this distance. But I had my eyes on a Chad Brown filly. Hellenistic was listed at 9/2 in the program and I wrote that even at 3/1 this would be a huge overlay. She had raced in her native Ireland until her most recent where she was put in Grade 3 company. The edge in class that Euros hold over their North American counterparts made her a "BIG TIME" play here. She was my "BEST" of the day. She sat near the back through the first two turns and as they approached the far turn top rider Javier Castellano gave her the cue. She began picking off horses one-by-one as she circled the field. She was some five wide into the lane as she continued to surge to the front and within a couple of jumps on the straight-away she was in front where she set sail for the wire. A couple of closers were making up ground slowly, but she easily held them off while SETTING A NEW COURSE RECORD for the distance!
Best of all the crowd had let her go at a big 5/2 so I was cashing in for well over $50 and my day was made! WHOOOO HOOOOO! Right back in the 7th with Todd Pletcher's Escondido on the turf. As I wrote in my analysis, I would not have been at all surprised if he didn't win here, but in this case it was the one Gulfstream Park 40% Club angle for which Pletcher qualifies for this season. Here's the story.....Three pack Escondido won his MSW sophomore debut, no surprise. Off that he tried entry level allowance runners and was fifth. He came back in his most recent in a starter-optional claimer like this and won. Normally Pletcher runners do not run at this kind of class level, and when they do they either don't win or are claimed away. And in a race like this where I thought the favorite was good enough to win, but I couldn't find a way to beat him with questions about his ability to repeat I would pass the race. But over the last two winters Pletcher has been scoring at well over 40% with any runner he enters for less than a $40K claiming tag. Unusual considering the stock he usually runs here, but with today's tag being $25K, it was a "Club Play." I doubled the bet. As they turned for home Escondido moved off the rail where he'd tracked the leaders in third, and surged between horses to take the lead. He was clear by daylight with a furlong to go, but then here came the late running Ramsey colt, Seventhfleethumor, my second choice. He kept closing ground while Escondido was desperately reaching for the wire.......PHOTO FINISH! I felt pretty confident I'd won and though the official slow-motion replay was still inconclusive, I felt I had the winner. Close, but indeed, my third win of the day! HORRAY!
I had doubled the bet so the more than $20 I collected just added to the profit for the day! In a side note, as I watched the races today I began working on my Florida Derby program - a little over two weeks before the signature day!
It couldn't have gone any better, well I could have won them all, but that seems a bit greedy! When I first had looked over the entries to the Wednesday card and scanned through the racing card it looked like a weak collection of races, especially for a Gulfstream Championship meet. My initial thought was that I'd have a hard time finding a race or two to invest in. But after my handicapping was completed I had six races I was interested in. Not only did I score in four of them, but the two I missed were THE ONLY TWO that I invested the minimum! It's the great thing about this game of thoroughbred handicapping. You NEVER KNEW when or where your next win or winning day will come from. And one of the lessons that was again confirmed today is that they pay out for ANY WINNER - you need not pick the winner of a Grade 1 event to have a winning day; you can just as easily win three maiden events and a starter race on a Wednesday afternoon to have a great day at the races! And like all days at the track, the wins came with great tales to tell. As I wrote in my analysis of the first race, the opener of the first day of "Derby Month" there were two ways to look at the race....either BL's Wagon provided you with a "free bingo square" to the early double OR you were going to get paid handsomely for finding the upset winner against a vulnerable favorite. In my opinion the way to go was to take the short price because 'Wagon looked VERY SOLID in my opinion. She was being sent out by the streaking Larry Pilotti barn which is winning at a monstrous 43% rate and BL's Wagon just dazzled in a FIFTEEN length romp while earning a huge 87 Beyer. Add in top rider Javier Castellano and she looked formidable indeed. The concern - would she bounce today? IF you believed that the hot barn and top rider were not enough to prevent that, you had to consider that even if she bounced by multiple lengths she would still be best in here. And if you looked down her pp's you'd see a similar romp by 24 widening lengths, which was followed by another daylight romp. Too good to go against. Through the first twenty minutes of wagering she was a prohibitive 1/9, which was probably her legitimate odds. Then she floated to 1/5 and at one point was a "big" 1/2. Finally she settled at 2/5. She hit the top of the lane five in front. Castellano never asked her for her best and she cantered around the track scoring by an official eight length margin.
I tripled the investment so I was cashing for over $20 to start the week. In the second I went for the upset with Stranahan Dragon who was 6/1 in the program. But by post time she was 9/5. She made up some ground late, but it was obvious she was accelerating through the stretch - an even fourth with the minimum bet. No bet in the third. In the fourth it was a maiden claiming event for 3-year-olds for a bottom level $12.5K price tag. Belstorm - I wrote - was as solid a favorite as you can get at this level. He had nearly paired figures while racing on the turf and then a one-turn mile n his most recent. In that last event he was stuck way outside and was near the back before swooping up to grab the lead after six furlongs - the distance of today's race. But going a mile he weakend to be fourth, but was only beaten two lengths. A big plus was his rider change from a jockey with only five wins this winter to the second leading rider, Luis Saez, who had piled up 63 victories. My only concern was the fact that since his last race he'd not had any published works. Belstorm stalked the pace along the rail behind three dueling leaders, and Saez waited patiently. When those three floated off the rail he shook the reigns and Belstorm went from two back to three in front in the blink of an eye with the rail-skimming move. He galloped out in full stride to be over nine clear on the wire. Ultra-impressive for this level of competition! WHOOO HOOOO!
He too went off as the chalk, but he paid $4.20 and the double-down bet returned over $20 again. I thought the fifth boiled down to two horses and I couldn't separate them, so I passed (the lower priced favorite was an easy winner). My "price play" of the day came in the 6th where we were going a mile over the turf. And this, like a lot of my winners during this Gulfstream season, was an example of good handicapping. There are many angles that can point out a winner, but one that I've found to be consistently successful is what are called "trainer patterns." Thoroughbred trainers are like the rest of us in our daily lives - when something works, you return to that routine to try and get the same results. Victory Mast displayed such a "trainer pattern" here. Check out his past performances:
Three races back he was coming off a long layoff when he was entered in a $35K turf event where he stalked the early pace and then faded. He dropped down for this $20K level and just missed with a good finishing kick. Last out he was back in for a $30K tag where he was again close to the pace and then faded. Today, drops back down to the $20K level. The upgrade in jockeys was also noted. He stalked the big priced leader - my second choice - into the turn, collared him as they entered the stretch and then ran away in the final furlong. HORRAY - my THIRD WIN of the day!
And when the prices were posted, the generous payoff of $6.20 meant I'd be cashing for over $30! Much like my other, earlier loss the 8th was a price play - or so I thought. A MSW for 3yo, without a Pletcher runner, meant a wide open affair. Uknowwhatimean was a first time starter; a $390K Keeneland purchase with a best of 37 bullet work listed at 10/1 in the program. He was 2/1 at post time and broke behind the field. He got going late but was never a threat - even fourth, and like the other miss, with a minimum investment. The final selection of the day was my "BEST" of the day. Strict Compliance was a 3yo filly entered in a MSW turf event by top trainer Chad Brown. And while Brown wins with all kinds of runners, he seems most effective with his turf charges. Strict Compliance had debuted in mid-October for Brown and in no surprise to me was flying late, finishing second by a diminishing neck. The surprise was the fact the crowd let her go off at 20/1! I knew I wouldn't get that kind of price today. Especially with top rider Javier Castellano on board. Those two are scoring at a big 31% together here. Brown's over stats were also very positive angles: 24% wins off the layoff; 35% with second time maiden starters; and one that has been VERY successful for me this winter, Brown runners turning back from a route distance to a sprint distance were winning at a huge 57%. Castellano had her sitting mid-pack to the turn, and then you could literally see him "step on the accelerator" as she burst by horses as she swooped around the field at least five wide. She was in front by the time heads were pointed for home, and she lengthened her stride through the lane to draw clear late without having to be pressed for her best.
She was the obvious favorite, but I'd tripled the bet so I was cashing for over $25! For the day I finished a superb 4-for-6; I had invested $60 and collected $98.50! What a great day at the races!
Today was a really unusual day, but I was so thankful for online racing and wagering platforms today that allow me to "go to the races" virtually. After I had handicapped the day I had six selections on the day, but after a selection in the first I was "off" until the 7th. There is no way I would have ever gone out to the races and sat for three and a half hours without betting, even for me....a guy that just loves to be at the races and watch the horses run! In the opener Lure of the South was the obvious class play. But you had to be concerned about the plunge in class as a red flag. But trainer Jane Cibelli, who has been hot overall, is a GP 40% Club member scoring at a huge 60% over the last two winters when Joel Rosario rides - as he was today. A longshot took off through the first turn of this 8 1/2 furlong test and was reminiscent of Presious Passion he was a pole in front down the backside. But he was going too fast too early it looked to me and Lure of the South had dead aim on him as they entered the turn. Unfortunately races at a mile and a sixteenth at Gulfstream have the "first finish line" and the leader did NOT have to hang on the length of the stretch. Just enough to get the win at the early finish wire. My next play wasn't until the 7th, and here was the race that made my day. As a sidenote, the five races I passed in a row - NONE of the horses I picked on top, but didn't have enough confidence in to bet, came home a winner. Good wagering decisions! So the 7th was a claiming event going seven furlongs. At first glance they looked like a rag-tag collection of runners who took turns beating up on each other and similar friends while floating in and out of form. But then I saw the subtle handicapping angle. The horse that caught my eye was #8-Gloton. Check out this edited past performance info:
The first thing I draw your attention to is his career record at Gulfstream (bottom right) - he's made 21 starts over the Hallandale track with a mere two wins. YIKES. That can't be good. Next, check out his trainer: Luis Duco - only 15-for-254 in 2014, and a mere 5-for-54 at Gulfstream this meet. You'll note the jockey is Luis Saez. So here's what I noticed.....a month ago I scored with Arabian Dream. That horse had a career mark of 15/1-3-6. But on that afternoon Duco had enlisted Luis Saez to ride. And that day I noted that over the last two years Duco had won with Saez, out of only four mounts, two times. And he won again for me! So here we are again.....the horse has the ability to at least be close with two back-to-back second place finishes when beaten less than a length. And now the Saez-Duco connection JUST AT GULFSTREAM was up to 2-for-3 at a $4.53 return for every $2 bet. It cannot be a coincidence that either Duco only asks, or Saez only agrees when the mount is live. So I not only bet, but DOUBLED the bet. Gloton sat near the back, as is his usual running style until the field reached the far turn. Saez asked for run and the response was immediate as Gloton noticeably accelerated. He was picking off horses one by one and had the most momentum in the field. He circled the field some six wide through the turn, but by the time they reached the top of the stretch he'd collared the leader AND STILL had the momentum. He surged past and by the 16th pole he was clear by two lengths. A closer was running on late, but it was too little, too late and Gloton had WON! Great job Mr. Mark of picking up on this subtle angle!
Unfortunately, as you can see in the caption, Gloton did not go off at his 8/1 program odds, but he'd had gone off at a very nice 7/2. The $9.40 payoff combined with my doubled-down investment meant I'd be cashing for nearly $50 and I was home free for the afternoon regardless of how the other for races turned out. WHOOOO HOOOOO! In the 8th Southern Stroll was first off the claim for Jorge Navarro and he put Javier Castellano on board - a 36% win angle. Sent off as the 3/2 favorite he never ran a lick and was a distant 9th. Passed the ninth; in the 10th I liked Tarnished - enough to bet, but not with a lot of confidence. He had run well in all four career starts having finished first, second, third, and fourth while earning nearly identical speed figus in three of those (76-78-76). Her last start was the fourth place finish, but she was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths despite coming of a six month break. Toss in that the runner-up had come right back to win and that Alan Goldberg was winning at a sharp 31% and you have enough to make a wager with some degree of confidence. One reason I did not double the bet (or more) was that Hot and Spicy - my second choice - was a mystery. After winning her debut HERE at 13/1 last season she'd been in five straight sakes, and finished second in two of them! But she's been off since October and her start today will mark trainer James Bond's first runner of the meet - on Day 66! Hmmm. Tarnished stalked the leader along the rail for Paco Lopez, swung out at the top of the lane and was clear on a daylight lead at the 16th pole. But then here came a longshot with all the momentum.......WHERE'S THE WIRE!!!!!! PHOTO FINISH! I thought at first glance I won, but the slow-motion replay made me reconsider. But, on the turf at Gulfstream the camera angle is all wrong and you never know who won, even in their "official photos" you have to wonder because the inner red rail is silver in the pics (never have understood this!). The results came up.......
WINNER! She was the 9/5 favorite and I'd only bet the minimum. But hey, I was already in the black for the day, so what ever I got back was clear profit! I'll take the additional $14.50 without any hesitation. In the 11th, a $100K Allowance-Optional claiming event, it was field full of stakes quality runners. I went with Kitten's Dumplings who had raced in four graded stakes, including a Grade 1 in 2013. She was a flat 3/2 favorite in her seasonal debut for Mike Smith at the Fair Grounds - maybe she needed one? She was a GP 40% Club play for Michael Maker. Trailed to the stretch, then improved position slightly to be 6th. And in the finale, a Todd Pletcher FTS on the turf was last all the way around the track as the 5/2 choice. So, for the day I was 6/2-1-0 and profited over $15! For the week my totals were:
Today was a H-U-G-E day in the thoroughbred racing world. In addition to the multiple graded stakes at Tampa, Gulfstream, and Santa Anita there were also to graded stakes in New York. After handicapping those four tracks, I added in the Fair Grounds and was set to go with over thirty selections on my sheets - eleven of which were stakes and eight of those graded stakes. With all of Kim's family in town for the weekend I bid them a fond farewell around 11 am and headed off to enjoy what I anticipated being a big day. And as you'll see, I was NOT disappointed! My first selections were the early double at Tampa. In the opener I liked a longshot, Coomer at 10/1 in the program. He left the gate at 6/1 and never really was in contention. The second half of the double was another price play. The second was a 6 1/2 furlong sprint and was carded as a $40K overnight handicap. The field was littered with horses with black type on their resume - this easily could have been a name/listed stakes event. But I went with a horse that did NOT have stakes results on his resume. The race appeared to have a LOT of early speed and Tairneach was turning back from a route. He had been a late running third in a two-turn optional allowance that carried a $100K price tag - obviously a high quality event. Looking down his pp's I saw an example of a route-to-sprint move and he'd drawn off with authority. He was the bet at 5/1 in the program. Just as I had anticipated a sizzling speed duel developed. The two favorites knocked heads through a :22 flat and :44 and change pace duel. You can't go :44 and change at Tampa unless you are truly talented and hang on to finish. As they hit the far turn Tairneach was hitting his best stride. As they turned for home he was in full flight of the front runners. Inside the 16th pole he collared the surviving speed horse and was clear on the wire. And the best part - he paid a juicy $10.40! I cashed for almost $26 to kick off the day. Worthy of a "selfie" which I posted on Facebook! Next in my program was the second from Gulfstream. This was a Maiden Special for three-year-olds on the turf. Yes, there was a Pletcher runner, and yes he was my pick. But the issue was that this race was carded for a mile and three sixteenths and NONE of these maidens had ever gone this far previously. So making a pick was largely guesswork. Under normal circumstances I'd have passed the race, but at Gulfstream, in a 3yo maiden event.....I'm never going to let a Todd Pletcher horse win and not have it. I doubled the bet on Tapkee. When the crowd hammered him down to 3/5 at post time I felt that the betting action clearly meant "somebody knew something!" He pressed the front runner into the far turn and they were well clear of the rest of the field. I knew at any minute Javier Castellano would accelerate by and win for fun. But at the furlong marker it was the longshot leader that accelerated and left Tapkee running for second money. At Aqueduct Storied Lady was sent off as the 8/5 favorite in the overnight Cat Cay Stakes. Wide on both turns, fortunate to be third I thought after losing a ton of ground. Back to Tampa where Good Pick Nick seemed like a standout in a Maiden Special. The Stonestreet Stable colt was a $625K Keeneland grad and had been the favorite in his Aqueduct debut, but he failed to fire. He was even money here in his 3yo debut, but was second, however he was SEVEN clear of the show. A good recent work pointed him out to win today. He rallied four wide into the late and with a surge at the wire it was a PHOTO finish......second. Sigh. Next was the fourth at Gulfstream in a "redo" of a turf event from last Saturday's washout card. In this spot last week I'd favored a Bill Mott horse. But while he was in the field again today, Mott had switched riders to Joe Bravo. As I've written throughout the meet, this guy can't get a winner home with over 100 losses. Not for me today. Instead I went with Inchcape. He had been second at this nw2x level EIGHT times already! But today he got Javier Castellano - he SHOULD make the difference. The big priced front runner went on an insane front-running mission going :21.4 and :44.3 in this mile and a sixteenth event.....stupid. On the far turn the field inhaled him and Inchcape moved off the rail into the lane from third to burst to the front and win. HORRAY! Wait.....objection, AGAINST ME! It was on the turn, but the front-runner who was in the midst of plunging through the field like he had an anchor tied to him. No way they let that minor event - which I didn't think was interference anyway - stand. And they didn't! My first win at Gulfstream and Inchcape paid a nice $6.60! The fourth at Aqueduct was next and it was the first of the graded events in my program, the Grade 3 Tom Fool. Salutos Amigos had won three straight stakes races, two of them Grade 3 events like this. As an off-the-pace sprinter Salutos Amigos can be a victim to the pace flow, but last time out his main rival had been loose on an easy lead and was four clear into the lane. STILL 'Amigos ran right by him. With a contested pace anticipated today he looked like a slam dunk. My only "concern" was voiced by the DRF stakes analysts in their video preview, and that was at some point the horse had to hit a wall and not perform up to his current hot form. I thought that today was not going to be that day with the way the race set up. When they completed the opening quarter and Salutos Amigos was already stalking the dueling front-runners in third, only three off the lead I knew I was home free. Sure enough, at the top of the lane he accelerated and romped.
You HAD to believe that even the casual fan with a program would see how consistent this guy was AND he was facing virtually the same field today - certain to be 1/9 or maybe 1/5. NO, they let him go at a very big 3/5 and I was cashing for over $30 with my "prime time" investment! After missing in a Tampa allowance (4th at 4/5) I had the biggest disappointment of the day. I had very much been looking forward to seeing Todd Pletcher's Daredevil run in last Saturday's Grade 2 Swale. So when they cancelled the second half of the card, then announced it would be run today I was pumped up that Daredevil was declared ready to roll. But when I read Javier Castellano's comments that he didn't like the #1 post and he'd have to see how the race played out, that just didn't seem to glow with the kind of confidence I'd have with a horse that was considered one of the two-year-old stars and a Kentucky Derby contender. He broke slowly and was quickly fourth, some six or seven lengths out of it. But while I would have preferred to see him on the engine, I was ok with him being "schooled" on how to rate today because I was convinced he was/is a legitimate star. He made his move on the turn and quickly gained second, but the front running third choice was not going to be caught today. Sigh.....Daredevil had been my Gulfstream "Best" of the day. Santa Anita was ready to open their Santa Anita Handicap card and I liked runners I both halves of the early double. Sheer Talent in the opener had suffered a miserable trip at this level last out when wide and steadied but was sill second beaten less than a length. He went off at even money but was fortunate to get third when VERY wide, again. In the second half Alfiero was dropping out of MSW company where he had dueled through a sizzling :21 and change half mile. Looked long gone on the front with the drop in class. He led comfortably into the stretch, but when it was time to accelerate to the wire he was empty - fourth at 5/2. At the Fair Grounds Commander Sport was a longshot front-runner - never made the lead. WOW. Back to Tampa for the 7th, an entry-level allowance. I liked Songsational who had aired in his debut last time out. Now I get it that a horse's first start against winners is often his most difficult test of his career, but he had been "ridden out" as tons the best while earning a 90 BSF that day and even a regression probably put him back in the winner's circle. As they approached the far turn I could tell the rider had a snug hold on him, not wanting him to move too soon in this 7 furlong test. Midway through the turn he asked for run, but by now he was 3-wide and the two leaders had set sail for the finish. Still, Songsational was making up ground.....could he get there in time? Determinedly he kept fighting and finally inside the final 100 yards he had the momentum to push by to keep his record perfect at 2-for-2. While Daredevil had been my "best" at Gulfstream, in the 7th Wisecracker was many other handicapper's "best." He had debuted by dueling on the lead and then finishing second best - while some three lengths clear of the show - behind Todd Pletcher's new star, Khozan. That one had come back to romp in allowance company and was pointed for the Florida Derby until suffering an injury this past week. Wisecracker was the heavy 3/5 favorite and was in control of the race into the stretch, but when a late runner came to him he had no resistance. Still, second best, but that's no good to me with my WIN ticket! I again was loose on the lead, this time at Aqueduct with Elusive Talmo at 5/2 in heir 7th, but again my pick weakened. What is it with I'm always zigging when they are zagging? Last week I had predominately closers and could not get there in time, and this week I have the lead and can't get to the wire first! Next in my program was the Challenger Stakes at Tampa for older runners going a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt. As a three-year-old General A Rod had won the Gulfstream Park Derby on January 1 and then run in all the Derby preps before finishing third in the Florida Derby. Then he ran in all three Triple Crown Races. He was off from the Belmont in June until an allowance here in January, but he faltered as the odds-on favorite for Michael Maker. The owners moved General A Rod out of Maker's barn and into Todd Pletcher's. If there is one lesson I've learned while handicapping Saratoga and Gulfstream, it's that when an established horse moves into the Pletcher barn he nearly ALWAYS spots him to win and the horse runs one of his best career races. So when General A Rod showed up here, first time Pletcher, in a listed stakes, I knew he was the bet. He was handled confidently to the far turn when Johnny Velazquez let him go and he quickly was clear by two and romped home handily!
He was a very fair 9/5 at post time and I cashed for nearly $30! Missed at even money at the Fair Grounds before going back to my seat in Section 101 to watch the 8th at Gulfstream Park. This was a Maiden Special for 3-year-olds. My pick was a Todd Pletcher first-time starter, ridden by Javier Castellano, who as a $300K sales purchase. Now ANYBODY who knows ANYTHING about racing, especially at Saratoga or Gulfstream KNOWS that no matter how you cut it, any Pletcher first-time starter - especially one that's sold for that price AND has the top rider - MUST be one of the favorites if not THE favorite. Yet the DRF linemaker made Chipit 20/1 in his morning line odds. Seriously? When the gates opened Chipit broke slowly and was quickly in the back - NEVER a good thing when the race is only 5 1/2 furlongs. But this is why Castellano is king here......never had a panic attack, just let the horse get his feet under him and at the top of the far turn began advancing. He split horse coming out of the turn and had dead aim on the leader. He was wide into the stretch but seemed to have all the momentum and was in front on the wire. Apparently many handicappers shared the DRF linemaker's opinion because this Pletcher colt, who should have been odds-on went off at 2/1 and paid $6.80......cashed for nearly $35!
March 7 Video Highlights: Part 1
Now that my friends is Gulfstream's best impression of giving money away at the track! I was looking forward to betting Chad Brown's Mrs. McDougal in Tampa's Grade 3 Florida Oaks, but she scratched. I thought about betting my second choice, the favorite, but held back.....she ran second to Quality Rocks. Ironically Quality Rocks had been my pick in last week's Grade 3 Herecomesthebride but it got rained off the turf. Then two odds-on runners went down for me. Never Ends at Santa Anita had run back-to-back seconds in MSW company earning Beyers that would win over 90% of all maiden races. Second again. This seems to be a bad habit forming for her. Then Night Prowler was a troubled-trip fourth at 1/1 in Gulfstream's Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes for 3yo colts on the turf. Now we were coming to the heart of the racing day as I had eight stakes selections from the next ten picks on my page. The next on the sheet was New York's next to last step towards the Kentucky Derby, the Grade 3 Gotham. El Kabeir had won the Grade 2 Jockey Club at Churchill to close out his 2yo campaign, then romped in the Grade 3 Jerome here at Aqueduct three and two back. He went into the Grade 3 Withers last out as the prohibitive favorite. That day I thought his rider mistakenly tried to duel on the front, figuring he had the best horse, and he fell victim to the pace battle to an off-the-pace closer. I figured he'd rate today just off the leaders. But then I watched the DRF Stakes Analysis video and Dan Illman - who I respect a lot - said he believed that El Kabeir's best chance was to take it to the field immediately and wire them. I still thought a rating tactic was best. They left the gate and before they hit the first turn, and it's a short run going 8 1/2 furlongs there, he was quickly near the BACK of the field! This cannot be good. Sigh.....but as the field approached the far turn, he got into gear like he had always been a deep closer! When they hit the top of the lane he was in full stride and easily ran by the field to win going away while under wraps! Well, aren't I smart for making him a triple investment?
Even if I didn't see the race unfolding like that! The payoff of $4.60 meant I'd cash for nearly $35! The Grade 3 Hillsborough from Tampa was approaching post time by the time the El Kabeir race was official. The DRF stakes analysis, and an article I'd read, both listed this race as the best betting race and most wide-open of the day. And while there were many graded stakes winners in the field, I thought that Stephanie's Kitten was the CLEAR choice. She was exiting EIGHT STRAIGHT Grade 1 appearances when entered in this Grade 3 spot. She was last seen running a good second in he Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf to loose-on-the-lead Dayatthespa and nearly caught her. Many felt if she'd won that race - and she would have if anyone had pressured Dayatthespa who normally could never run that far - then Stephanie's Kitten might have been Turf Filly & Mare of the Year. The only question was the layoff. That was negated by two factors in my opinion. First, Chad Brown is excellent with layoff types, especially on the turf. But most importantly I am very familiar with Stephanie's Kitten's owners, Ken & Sarah Ramsey. These people do not EVER spot a horse to set up another race, get some conditioning, etc. They enter with one thing and one thing in mind only - TO WIN! If they don't think they can win, they don't run. So I was very confident she could win. She rated nicely inside while saving all the ground in 4th or 5th to the turn. John Velazquez patiently waited behind a wall of four others and when they fanned out into the lane a big seam opened on the rail and it was ALL OVER! Stephanie's Kitten blew by and won under wraps!
Another very fair price of $4.80 - considering she's a multiple graded stakes winner exiting eight Grade 1 events. Two graded stakes wins in a row! I had time to see the prices posted before making my way to the rail for the feature at Gulfstream, the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap. When I looked at the field, and there were only six running, I could see that in spite of the short field, it was a very talented field. Five of the six were graded stakes winners and four of them I could easily see finishing first, the other would have been a small surprise. But as I considered the field I thought that the key here was the timing of the race. And this is one of the great things I really enjoy about handicapping. There is no "system" or a right way or a wrong way to look at a race. Every race at every track on every day of racing is unique in and of itself with the key to winning being something very unique to these particular horses on this particular day. So here's how I saw the contenders......Valid is a very good horse, but a Grade 3 is about his limit, and this is a Grade 2. Also, he has been running regularly since the fall, so I think he's chances of running a peak race are slim. Private Zone won back-to-back Grade 1 events in New York in spite of being based in California. Today he was first time Jorge Navarro - and that is always a strong angle, but that's usually in claiming company. I think he runs his best in New York for some reason. And while many thought he was clearly the one to beat as the lone speed, I thought he'd be compromised by Valid, just to his outside who never lets anyone loose on the front. Wicked Strong is a Grade 1 winner, but today he is coming off a long break, dating back to September, and while he COULD win, I think ownership is considering many longer races for bigger money. This is to be his "kickoff race" for the season. That brings me to Honor Code. He was considered a Derby candidate at this time last year but then he lost in allowance company in his 3yo debut and was subsequently hurt. He wasn't seen from February to November when he won a sprint race - seemingly too short for his style. Now he had a couple of months to get ready for this race. I felt like Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey wanted to make a statement today that his horse WAS as good as advertised and WILL be a player in the handicap division. AND he had top rider Javier Castellano riding today. It just seemed so clear to me. I was right about everything except one thing.....I never saw Honor Code quickly disappearing out of the TV picture as the race began. It was only a one-turn mile and by the time they were halfway down the backstretch he was completely out of the pan version of the monitor. OK, I thought, he's a closer, he'll move soon. The dueling leaders - just like I thought, Private Zone and Valid - were setting fast fractions as they hit the far turn and STILL no Honor Code. In fact the little chicklets along the bottom of the screen did not include his #1! But midway on the turn here came a blur of green silks; even race track announcer Larry Colmus called out that he was making progress. As the turned for home he still had about eight lengths to make up and was now running in tandem with Wicked Strong. At the 16th pole he had all the momentum, but the wire was coming up fast.........NAILED THEM about two jumps before the wire! WHOOOOO HOOOO! Not only do I win, but I was SOOO right in my handicapping thinking! I LOVE IT!
And, he had gone off at a generous 5/2, so I cashed for $35 more! THREE stakes wins in a row! I got inside just as the Fair Grounds' 7th field was hitting the far turn, an my pick, Trifecta, was surging to the front in this maiden claiming turf. WINNER! My fourth consecutive win - another $23! They were just across the wire when the field began loading into the gate for Tampa's featured Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. Again, I get it that every handicapper has their own opinion, but it seemed SO obvious to me. Carpe Diem from the Todd Pletcher barn had been written about back in early summer as one of his future stars to watch. He had not debuted until late in the meet, but when he did he was my "BEST" of the day and won off easily in a 5 1/2 furlong sprint. He showed up next going two turns at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity, and won again! His final stop in his juvenile campaign was the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He made up a lot of ground and was moving on the leader when Texas Red freaked and blew by to win. Still, Carpe Diem cleared the rest of the field and was a best-of-the-rest second. Off from November to this race I knew Pletcher and the WinStar ownership group had Kentucky Derby on their mind. They would want to get the Derby qualifying points today so they could have options before the first Saturday in May. They would not have mapped out this campaign with this race to kick off the season as a prep because that would mean they would HAVE to win the next one to get into the Derby. After being a bit of a handful to load Carpe Diem stalked the leaders to the far turn. John Velazquez shook the reigns as they made their way through the turn and in a blink of an eye he was in front. As they were about to spin out of the turn I saw him peak under his arm - that's the best sign to see in racing when your jockey is looking around to see if anyone is coming! He was on a daylight lead into the lane and accelerated to the furlong pole before winning in hand!
My fifth win in a row and FOURTH STAKES in a row! WOW I am having a good day! Particularly at Tampa where Carpe Diem was my fifth winner on their card and the third stakes winner there! I felt like Carpe Diem should have been 2/5 or 3/5, but instead was allowed to go off at even money. I had bet "prime time" on him as my "Tampa Best" of the day so I cashed for $40 more! I knew I'd had a good day, and while I certainly was hoping to win a couple more races before leaving, the way the day would turn out would now rest on the outcome of Santa Anita's featured race, the Big Cap! I was a good second at 5/1 in Gulfstream's 11th, then a best-of-the-rest second in Santa Anita's last Derby prep before the Santa Anita Derby, again at a nice price (4/1 on Prospect Park who chased Bob Baffert's unbeaten Dormund who was loose on an easy lead). An even trip in the 12th at Gulfstream resulted in a fourth place finish before I left the track. Once I got home I watched the China Doll for 3yo fillies on the turf at Santa Anita. As I remarked earlier on camera in a clip I ended up not using, I would have passed the race but Curlin's Fox was Brad Free's BEST of the day, and I have too much respect for his opinion to let one of those go. She was flying late, but just missed, my EIGHTH second place finish of the day. I had DVR'd the Florida Panthers' hockey game and was watching the first period when they loaded into the gate for the $1 million, mile and a quarter Santa Anita Handicap. Shared Belief was my pick. He looked to lay over this field on paper, but as I said, still, it's a horse race. I had a little nagging feeling that maybe this could be a big upset in the making, but still, I had confidence and before I left for the races I pulled a $100 bill out of my envelope to put on this race alone. But as I approached the window I was wavering and thought, "mmmm, maybe $50 to win." I called out a prime time bet on the 9th, the Grade 2 San Carlos but my horse was scratched. Brief pause as I considered this, and then I made it - "Santa Anita, race 11 - $100 to WIN on #5!" And I took my ticket! As the betting opened and up until three minutes before post time Shared Belief was 1/9. And that was what he should be. Part of my consideration to back off the bet was that I'd be wagering $100 to win $10. But I had hopes that maybe I'd get more.....even so, it wasn't about the money, it was about my confidence that he WAS the best horse in North America and SHOULD have been Horse of the Year. He floated up to 1/5 as they left the gate. Moreno, a Grade 1 winner went right to the front and was loose on the lead. I thought the pace was a little fast and as they approached the far turn Shared Belief was still in mid-pack. But as they hit the turn there was the familiar black cap on Hall of Fame Mike Smith's head gliding up on the outside inhaling horses one by one. He quickly was up on the outside of Moreno and as they turned for home he cleared the field and was on a daylight lead! STILL, Mike Smith sat motionless! In the final 16th after never even raising the stick or shaking the reigns, Smith motored him down to a canter. TONS the best, or as Trevor Denman called it, "....poetry in motion....."
When the prices came up he'd floated up on more tick and paid $2.60. I would cash for $123 and that - like the Salutos Amigos payoff, was giving money away! For the day I'd won nearly 40% of my races overall, and had picked SIX graded stakes winners from eight graded stakes selections! I had a nice profit of nearly $35 as well. And to top off the day, the Panthers won in a shoot-out to move within two points of a playoff spot! What a G-R-E-A-T day!
