January 11: It's A Washout, But....
BET of the Day WINS!
I originally had nine selections from the eleven race card to close down the week, and I was certain that the four slated for the turf would go as scheduled because last week the grass races remained on despite overnight rains on a couple of days, and on a couple of instances it was actually raining when they ran the race. So, this morning I didn't think there was any reason to check later in the day about the status of the races. Well, as it turns out we were off the turf, so I had only five handicapping selections today. The first race on the card was a starter-optional claiming and my top choice was a Gulfstream 40% Club play for trainer Peter Walder with Javier Castellano on board: Palatine Hill. There were actually two club plays in here, but Chillin Dylan had earned his best numbers against cheaper company and by coming from off the pace. Palatine Hill had a pace-pressing style that plays better here AND his best figures were earned against better. When I opened the replays this evening to watch, while I was disappointed we were off the grass - costing me the four plays - I was delighted for this race. I had seen Palatine Hill romp twice last winter on off tracks. Castellano gave him a smart ride as 'Hill is a giant horse and so the two-time riding champion gave up some ground around both turns but kept the big boy out in the open where he could run free. As they moved through the far turn he made his move and announcer Larry Colmus called it point on when he said, "....and Palatine Hill comes lumbering up to the leaders...." He went right on by them and galloped out to the wire to score!
The crowd wasn't fooled and had bet him down to 4/5 favoritism so I cashed for a touch below $20. The next live bet was in the third where Upon Reflection was sent out by trainer Jorge Navarro. This six-year-old had been in the Navarro barn back in 2013 when he was claimed by Navarro and he'd won at this level. But last August he lost him through the claiming box for $5K. But right away he paid $16K to get him back. The drop in for $6K today seemed to be putting him where he rightfully belonged. The main threat seemed to be Kirk Ziadie's Yes It's Me, and as the field turned for home it was that one on the lead with Upon Reflection having dead aim on him with what looked like all the momentum. He got right to his neck but could not get by (that's him, #8 on the outside in the photo above). Sigh........The fourth race today was my "BET of the Day." It was a six furlong sprint for 3-year-old maiden special weight runners. As I wrote in my analysis, everyone (well, everyone who follows the races at Gulfstream) knows that in MSW races for 3-year-olds you start by evaluating the Todd Pletcher horse, if there is one. It's like Saratoga in the summer with two-year-olds. If you go against Pletcher you will be wrong a vast majority of the time, so you'd better have a really solid choice at a really good price. For players like me, I have always shown a flat-bet profit by taking the Pletcher maidens at both of these meets. But on occasion the other handicappers go for a "value" play and I get a fair price. And to be fair there are a few that appear vulnerable, but like every winter this year I went against Pletcher in a couple spots early in December thinking his runners were going to get beat and I paid the price by missing a good payoff. So I'm automatic on Pletcher. Well, Materiality in here was NOT one you'd want to go against. The $400K sales purchase had been working bullets since coming to So Florida in October. He was CLEARLY the one to beat. I thought he towered over the field so I went "PRIME TIME" on him. He stalked the 13/1 pace setter into the turn, collared him and instead of blowing by he gradually edged clear. When a closer began to gather momentum John Velazquez opened Materiality up and he drew off with authority! 
The 8/5 post time odds were absurdly high in my opinion for this kind of Pletcher runner. Sometimes he'll send out a 3-year-old who has lost once or twice in New York and you might think he's not as good as most, but a debuting runner with a price tag like this? I'll gladly accept the $50 and change! WHOOOOO HOOOOOO! In the fifth I had a Gulfstream 40% Club play on a Pletcher runner. He's had many different angles over the years, but this year the only one that's held over the last two winters is with claiming runners for less than $40K. Seems odd for the quality of horses he has, but Palace Gate fit that profile. As I wrote, anyone but Pletcher training and this guy would have been a play against. And he ran like that - fifth at even money! The eighth was my final pick and in it Roy Aire ran poorly from the start, finishing 12th at 5/2. So, for the day I was a solid 40% with 2 wins in five selections for a profit of nearly $20. Before I close, just a note to be honest about my betting. There are occasional times when I will add money or a bet with "my own money" that I don't count as a handicapping play. And then there are some days like today that if I had been at the races or betting live during the races online I would NOT have stuck with my turf runners on the main track. But I did make the bets online this morning. So I had one of the four scratch and ran 3rd, 9th, and 2nd with them. But when this happens I typically either count them all, or none. And today it was none.
Week 6 Highlights
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