Day 22

Sunday January 4

 

A BIG Day At Gulfstream

I debated about coming out today....on the one hand I wanted to get out to Gulfstream after not coming yesterday; but on the other hand I didn't want to force the issue by betting on horses I that I wanted to win, but wouldn't bet if I weren't on track.  After handicapping the Gulfstream card I had found nine selections on the eleven race card, and two of them were "prime time" bets.  So I decided to buy the Daily Racing Form and look through the cards, with an eye towards only taking runners that I felt pretty confident in.  From three cards - Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, and Santa Anita - I found eleven selections in total.  I was content with the selections for a day's worth of adventures at the track.....it wouldn't be a hectic day, but I had bets at least every 25  minutes.  Today when I got up I decided that I would look at the Tampa card to see if I could find any additional runners I liked.  I've not had much luck there so far this winter.  I told Kim as I left that I didn't know how long I'd be out at Gulfstream as I was still tired, and with the time between races if I wasn't winning I wouldn't be keen to stay late.  Well, the way the day started I thought I would be making a very early exit.  The first bet of the day was the opener at Gulfstream.  Sweet Rocket Man came out of the Kirk Ziadie barn and was cutting his claiming price in half off of back-to-back seconds.  The board was showing 1-9 when I walked in and stayed there until five minutes to post when he floated up to 1/5.  Then Mike Welsch's top pick - who HE said would be the lone speed, but I didn't think so based on his pace figures - took late money, being bet down to 3/1.  This let 'Rocket Man float up to 4/5.  I thought that was stealing.  But he broke slowly, recovered to be stalking the lone speed - Welsch's pick.  As he started to make his move, the rider - who is a low pct. rider - tried to come up the inside.  But at the furlong marker he was checked hard, and then again losing all chance.  Though to be honest I don't think he'd caught the lone speed.  I had tripled the bet, and that wasn't the way I saw the day starting.  But at Aqueduct in their second Pop of color was Dave Liftin's best of the day.  He'd debuted while setting a sizzling pace before weakening to be second while EIGHT clear of the show.  Then he'd worked a best-of-98 bullet.  This seemed like such a "duh" pick.  The 2/5 post time odds were just a give-away I thought.  I had $20 to win.  Right to the front, coasting on an easy lead into the lane.  Here came one late runner with some momentum, all it would take was to NOT stop running to win....but instead inside the final 100 yards he did shorten stride and I was second.  WOW.....0-for-2 with two big added money bets.  Maybe today was NOT a good day to come out!  However, to my credit I kept an even keel and stuck to my sheet of selections.

Next up was the second at Tampa.  Frankly, the only reason I'd picked Angora was that Antonio Gallardo, who had won five races on Wednesday when Jeff and I were out here, was on board.  He was allowed to float up to 5/2 from his 2/1 program odds and ran away from the field!  How ironic that after investing $35 in the first two picks, I only had the minimum on this one :)  Still, a win is a win and I felt like I was back on the right track.  The third at Aqueduct was their feature, the Ruthless Stakes for 3yo fillies.  If the second had been a slam dunk, this was even more so.....on paper.  There was a short field of five with an OBVIOUS favorite, Paulassilverlining.  She had debuted with a good fourth, then won her maiden, followed by a Grade 2.  Then she stretched out to a one mile Grade 3 when she was best-of-the-rest second.  Now today she's in a listed stakes for a barn winning at 43%.  All of that would make her a standout, but the four rivals today included a maiden, two last out maiden winners, and the only "legitimate" threat to Paula, but she'd been beaten already (soundly) by Paula!  For some reason the crowd was pounding THE MAIDEN down to 9/5 as the second choice and one of the last-out maidens to 3/1.  All of this allowed Paulassilverlining to be a more-than-fair 6/5.  Four of them lined up across the track as heads turned for home, but a seam opened up on the rail and Paula shot through.  She quickly put those four behind her, but here came the closer in the field.  It was a stirring stretch duel (watch the video recap at the top of the page), but on the wire the class of Paulassilverlining prevailed! 

I had a "prime time" investment and with NYRA pools rounding to the nickel instead of the time I earned back $45!  The third at Gulfstream was less than ten minutes later and here I had to make the choice between TWO Gulfstream 40% Club runners.  As I had begun handicapping the race I thought that 3-Oh So Debonaire (6/1) would be the pick, and I'd be getting a nice price.  sent out by Tamara Levy with Luis Saez, those two have clicked at better than 44% over the last two winters.  But then I came to #10 Smarts.  He too was a GP 40% Club for trainer Jorge Navarro who makes the club with his class droppers.  AND he had Javier Castellano up.  I wrote in my analysis that the "smart" move would be to take the longer price on 'Debonaire, but I made a LOT of money betting Jorge Navarro runners this summer at the Jersey Shore.  And then I saw the key to the race.  Four back Smarts had run in a 7 1/2 furlong turf event.  Then he dropped in class and went to a dirt mile - won by open lengths.  His last race - a 7 1/2 furlong turf event....and today he was dropping in price to run at a one-turn mile!  Uh oh!  I doubled the bet.  Smarts pressed the 11/1 leader to the turn, dueled with him into the stretch and then Castellano let him run....drew off easily! 

Somehow the crowd let him go off at better than 2/1 and the $6.80 return allowed me to cash for almost $35!  At Aqueduct I ran second in a claiming event after My Adonis was bet down from 6/1 to 2/1 at post time.  But then I had my fourth winner in spite of another dilemma in my handicapping.  On the second day of the meet there was a MSW for 2-year-olds that had not one but TWO Todd Pletcher colts.  Old Mountain Lane was the preferred choice as he'd run second in his debut at Keeneland behind a colt that had come right back to win and then tried a graded stakes.  The other was Itsaknockout who was debuting today.  I took the experience out of a KEY race and Old Mountain Lane moved to the lead into the stretch but was nailed on the final head bob by Itsaknockout.  Flash forward to today.......Itsaknockout was making his first start against winners but G Five, another Pletcher colt was also in the race.  This guy had not only broken his maiden, but he'd already cleared the nw1x condition, so he was running for the $75K optional tag today.  What to do?  I made my choice based on the fact that G Five had been badly beaten in his MSW debut and had to drop into a Gulfstream West $25K maiden claimer to win.  I figured the nw1x company there was probably equally soft and Itsaknockout had won in MSW company here at the prestigious Champions Meet.  Didn't hurt that Pletcher was winning at nearly a 50% clip over the last four years with dirt route runners stepping up in class!  Two front runners set an insane pace for a mile going :22.1 and a wicked :44.1 half mile!  They were at least half a dozen lengths clear of Itsaknockout as they hit the far turn, but then the ground started to swallow up between them.  But the top of the lane my pick had inhaled them and drew off handily.  Stopping the teletimer at 1:08 and change for six furlongs and 1:21 for seven panels just may indicate this colt is something special.  And the best part........

The payoff, WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO!  An amazing $7.40 meaning I'd cash on a Pletcher colt for nearly $40!  My third win locally.  My next bet wasn't until the next here at Gulfstream.  And just a sidenote......after worrying about the time between races this was working out great.  Because I was winning the time between events was just right for me to find a spot, record the video about the race, and get back downstairs in plenty of time to bet and find a spot in the simulcast center or on the rail.  In the fifth we were on the turf and it was a non-winners of two lifetime.  The very first horse just leapt off the page saying "PICK ME!  I'm THE WINNER!"  Franklin was being sent out by Michael Maker - that always gets my attention!  Well, Maker has four angles that get him into the Gulfstream 40% Club......first with class droppers, second with claiming events less than $40K, third with horses moving dirt to turf, and fourth when Javier Castellano on board.  Franklin had last raced in allowance company and was making his first-ever start for a claiming tag (1-class dropper);  today's claiming price was for $20K (2-less than $40K claimer);  his last start had been on the Turfway main track (3-dirt-to-turf); and today Javier Castellano took over the reigns (4-Castellano).  The ONLY worry was as a finisher type of runner he was pinned on the rail and probably would lose significant ground trying to get out for clear run.  But Castellano showed why he's won back-to-back riding titles here when as the gates opened he burst out with the leaders.  This forced the true front-runners to have to run hard to clear him, so as he relaxed after the first one hundred yards going into the first turn he was in "the garden spot" racing third behind dueling front runners, but clear of the field.  When they hit the far turn he eased off the rail and ran away effortlessly to the wire, clear by daylight.  As I'd written in my analysis he was as close to "single" in the Rainbow Pick Six as you could get with a horse that had a career mark of 12/1-2-3. 

I earned a sweet near $40 because I'd gone "prime time" on him as my co-Best of the day here.  I missed with two in a row before it was time for the 7th at Gulfstream, and this was my other "best" - and if I had to choose he would have been THE BEST of the day.  I wrote in my analysis that this race was what Gulfstream was all about.  A maiden special for three-year-olds just full of talented horses.  But to me it seemed obvious that the winner would be Todd Pletcher's Outlash.  He was a $390K Keeneland sales purchase for top NY owner Michael Repole.  And I know this guy, he doesn't like to race his horses unless they have a legitimate chance to win.  Pletcher had this colt working steadily since mid-October and had two sharp bullet works in the last month.  His outside draw in post 12 would allow him to settle off the speed and make a strong closing bid, or press the pace if quick enough.  He settled nicely off the leaders and was gradually improving as they moved through the far turn.  As I stood on the rail just past the finish line I could see on the jumbo-tron that he was not in full flight for the leader as they turned for home, but then he found another gear and was FLYING.  But the 40/1 leader looked to have just enough left to get to the wire....or did he?  PHOTO FINISH!  As you can tell from the photo at left I was pretty certain from my vantage point he'd been short of catching the winner.  You can tell I thought as much if you listen to the inflection in my voice on the highlight video.  As I turned and walked up the steps of the apron I passed two guys and the one said to the other, "it was 12-2" - WAIT a tic, I HAVE the 12....could he be right.  I turned and looked at the jumbotron just as the official photo was put up.......

OH YEAH baby!  WINNER-WINNER, CHICKEN DINNER!  And the best part was the crowd had let this promising youngster leave the gate at 8/5.  Just because I wanted to take as much of the crowd's money as they'd give me I waited for the payouts hoping that it paid $5.40 instead of $5.20.....and he did!  I cashed for over $50 and now I'm 2-for-2 with prime-time bets here at Gulfstream. 

I missed on the next three and then it was time for the second of the two Tampa races I'd bet on the day (I actually had a third but he scratched when it came off the turf).  Scottish Sweetie looked obvious in this MSW.  Two back he'd run second on the Keeneland turf and the fall meet at Keeneland is always full of top-class runners, especially maidens.  Then off a short layoff he had run second here.  With one over the course and some obvious ability I thought he'd easily be 6/5 or less than even money at post time.  But, because hot-riding Antonio Gallardo was NOT on board he floated up to 2/1 at post time.  He stalked the leaders into the stretch and then burst clear by three.  Here came the Gallardo runner, but too late to catch Scottish Sweetie.  The nice $6 payoff returned another $15 to my pocket.  I headed for home right after Great Attack ran second in a turf sprint to my third choice.  In the last five races that I watched on twinspires.com I had a win, two thirds and a second.  So for the day I finished an excellent 8-for-21 (38%) and was a clear profitable winner on the day.  Two things I'll remember about today:  first, the last minute decision to add in the Tampa races - 2-for-2 with a profit of over $20.....without those two picks I finish 6-for-19, still 30% but I'm in the red for the day!  And secondly, I was really happy with my ability to stay the course and trust my picks and money management.  After starting off 0-for-2 with two big bets I didn't back down and still fired away with three more prime time runners that all came home to score!  WHOOO HOOOO!

Here's a look back at this week's recap of the five days of racing for December 31 through January 4: