Day 23

January 7

WIN The Feature / Disappointment Otherwise

Not once, but TWICE I was nailed at the wire when it looked like I was a clear winner!  And worse, they were in the first two selections of the day.  In the opener Courtney Ryan was not only a "Horse-for-the-Course" (21/9-4-3) but a Gulfstream 40% Club play for trainer Tamara Levy.  She's won at 44% over the last two winters with horses when ridden by Luis Saez.  Last time out Courtney Ryan was upset by today's favorite, Elusive Harmony.  But I thought that was a clear case of "pace makes the race" when she was loose on the lead.  Today she'd have no such trip, and I even wondered if she would even MAKE the lead.  I was right on the money as she did not, and Courtney Ryan made her patented move, though very wide into the lane and surged to the lead.  But a horse saving all the ground on the rail was right there....PHOTO FINISH!  I did not have a good feeling, and I was right.  Second.  And check the payoff - really?  Taken down by a $76 horse?  Sigh.....  Right back in the second we were going a mile on the inner turf course in a non-winners of three lifetime and it was another Gulfstream 40% Club play - March Reward for trainer Michael Maker.  Three of the four angles that qualify Maker for Club Membership applied:  Class dropper, running for less than $40K, and Javier Castellano riding.  But if this were not the case I would have gone against because he was coming off a win, and in the claiming ranks it is uncommon for a "blue collar" type runner to put two top efforts together.  She was sent off at a generous 2/1, stalked the pace into the stretch and surged to the front at the furlong marker.  When the closers came running she dug in and with 100 yards to go I was still in front. But in the final strides it was a four-horse blanket finish, and it was clear that I was not in front...... The fifth was the first of two longshot plays I had.  Saratoga Lake was 8/1 and was an even fifth.  I had passed the 4th and then the sixth and BOTH of my top picks won those races......wow.  In the 7th I backed Dreaming of Frank at 11/1 in a MSW for sophomores and he ran to his odds, 9th.  In the eighth the numbers pointed out the play, but I was not nearly as confident as the odds said I should have been.  It was another maiden race for three-year-olds.  Queen Carla was sent out by a local outfit that had won at 21% for 2014, and they scored at a 22% mark with FTS at a big $3.46 ROI AND Javier Castellano was on board.  Add in a bullet work and you can see why I liked her at 4/1.  The post-time odds were 4/5 as the crowd saw everything I did.  She broke slowly and then.....did absolutely NO running - 10th.  This is NOT the way I'd seen the week starting off.

The feature today was the Miami Shores Handicap.  One thing I've noticed in recent Gulfstream seasons is when they run a listed stakes, especially during the week, it's a race that seems written for a comeback horse with class that does not want to run or doesn't qualify for allowance conditions.  Such was the case with Wedding Toast today.  She had run second in her Saratoga debut before scoring there - so you know she's talented.  She won an entry level allowance, two listed stakes and was second in a Grade 3.  Off for five months she was a best-of-the-rest second behind multiple Grade 1 winner Princess of Sylmar.  But that was last April.....could she overcome the layoff?  Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin had her working regularly since November.  Her main competition appeared to be Best Behavior from the Marty Wolfson barn who was on a two-race win streak including a big effort in the Claiming Crown Glass Slipper.  She was cross-entered in a Friday optional-claiming event were she would be a short-priced winner it appeared, so if she went here you know Wolfson was confident.  She ran.....and she and Wedding Toast put on a ding-dong show from the gate to the final 50 yards!  They dueled stride for stride all the way with Best Behavior on the inside and Wedding Toast on the outside.  But in the end class prevailed, and I had my one and only win of the day!