Day 20

January 2 - ANOTHER 40% Day

Well, the holiday season is over as the kids headed out today around lunch time.  The good news is that Kim & I still have the weekend - and our wedding anniversary to look forward to - but already it's seemed like a L-O-N-G holiday season.  The cruise got us off to a great start, and then the weekend in Orlando, followed by Cameron's visit with our other two kids.  Couldn't have asked for more!  But, racing continued today and it was another big day! 

Like yesterday I had five selections.  In the opener I had a pick, but was fairly certain he wouldn't run - he was a main track only pick and Gulfstream (unlike Calder management FOR YEARS) was running turf races regardless of the weather.  Sure enough Cosmo Blue was out.  But in the second it was a maiden claiming event and Lemon Up looked to be a standout.  He was plunging over 50% in claiming price for Kirk Ziadie off of back-to-back runner-up efforts.  Some barns send their runners down the claiming ladder like this to dump them, but Ziadie does this all the time with his first goal being a WIN!  If the horse gets claimed he goes out and gets another.  The only red flag, which kept my bet at a double investment instead of prime time was an 0-for-24 jockey was on board.  Still, I reasoned, if he just lets the horse break the rest is history.  And that is EXACTLY what happened.  Within the first five jumps Lemon Up was in front by daylight...by the time the opening quarter had been passed he was in front by three....at the half mile pole by TEN.....at the top of the stretch he was in front by EIGHTEEN lengths, and continued to expand his winning margin to the wire with the final number being over TWENTY-ONE lengths.  Ultra impressive as was the time:  :44.4 for the half and a sizzling 1:09.4 for the final time. 

The $13 cashout was like free money to me.  My next pick was my BET of the DAY!  The fourth was the first stakes race of 2015, the Bal Harbor Handicap.  When Gulfstream runs a listed stakes like this, especially on a weekday card, it's to give a proven stakes winner a place to make a comeback; and typically as a confidence builder.  Granted, nothing is a mortal lock, it's a horse race.  But still, that's how you approach these kind of events and often you can win at a high percentage by looking for the class play.  Two fillies jumped off the page when you scanned through the past performances........U.S.S. O'Brien and House Rules.  Check out their past performances and you'll see what I saw: 

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CLEARLY the class of the field is House Rules.  While U.S.S. O'Brien actually equaled House Rules career best figure in her last-out win, you can see that she's run in three entry allowance events then wired a listed stakes race last out.  Meanwhile House Rules had been in SIX graded events, twice running a best-of-the-rest second here against the ill-fated champion Onlyforyou and beaten a neck by In Tune in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (who was my BEST of the day on Derby Day).  She'd seen Untapable twice, multiple Grade 1 winner Sweet Reason, and in her last the winner, Snowbell had capped a two-race win streak in the Grade 3 Comely.  The only time House Rules had faced listed/allowance foes she'd won by 5, by 6, and by 6.  She looked MUCH the best to me.  I was hoping that some "value" players would try to beat her with U.S.S. O'Brien.  And they did, betting her down to 9/5 as the second choice.  She jumped to the front and House Rules was patiently ridden by Javier Castellano along the rail into the far turn.  You can tell (if you watch the weekly highlight video) that track announcer, like the crowd, expected the two fillies to hook up in a stretch duel as House Rules cruised up to look U.S.S. O'Brien in the eye as they turned for home.  But that lasted about one stride as House Rules BLEW by and drew off geared down by NINE widening lengths as the outclassed U.S.S. O'Brien caved to third.  PRIME TIME baby! 

The $3.60 payoff got me back nearly $40 and that was "easy money" in my opinion.  Lost the last three but finished another good day of handicapping 5/2-0-2!