January 8: A "COOL DAY" At Gulfstream!
It was indeed a "COOL DAY" in more ways than one. As the lovely Lissette Gonzalez had forecast, the temperature was in the very low 50s this morning with gusty breezes that brought the "feels like" temperature to the upper 40s, and a projected high temperature of the day to struggle to get up to 70! Now, while we might be "cold" the Midwest and Northeast were suffering through minus temperature readings. My sister texted me that there was a -22 wind chill factor in Columbus! This seemed like a good day to head out to Gulfstream and spend the afternoon outside enjoying the cool winter weather. And fortunately when I'd handicapped the card I found selections in four of the first five races, one of which was CLEARLY the "BET of the Day!" In the opener I thought Artsy was the clear winner. Not only on form and talent, but she so reminded me of sooooo many of the winners that Paco Lopez rode for Eddie Plesa during my Monmouth Park Handicapping Project. She was lightly raced with a very sharp 3/1-1-1 record. She'd won her debut HERE in September 2013. Then she was a best-of-the-rest second for a $40K 2-lifetime sprint. She was off for eleven months and was a sharp second for a $25K 2-lifetime sprint in spite of having to check not once but twice through the first half mile. I watched the replay and while it didn't help her chances I didn't think it really compromised her chances to win late. Still, today the cut in claiming price by 50% to run in a $12.5K 2-lifetime event was just the kind of move that earned Lopez many of his wins when he won the riding title on the Jersey Shore. And the race unfolded just like so many of those. Lopez went right to the front, and while he looked to have pressure, but the opening quarter was a tepid :23 and change, the half in :46 and change. She could easily rattle off a :45 half mile so she had plenty left I knew. Sure enough when everyone was on the edge of their seat as they swung out of the turn and she was under pressure, Lopez shook the reigns and she was L-O-N-G gone! 
Now here's the ironic part. While I'll take the win and the near-$20 payoff, because I had plays in the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th I seriously considered playing a double. I was going to take Artsy and couple her with my top choice, who was 8/1 in the second, but there were three other logical ones, so I thought I'd take those also. The payoffs were are all between $25 and $50, but there was another horse was paying less than $30 that I had NOT considered. I thought, I'm not going to spread to five horses, I'll just watch. You have to know how this turns out......two of the three favorites I'd named were battling late with the "other" horse I didn't when in mid-stretch my top choice split horses and drew off handily....paying $18.40 and keying a $46 double. Man, for $2 I could have had it, but didn't. In the third it was another Lopez runner and with the favorite out - who I did NOT like - I considered upping the bet. But with ten minutes to go there were five horses between 7/2 and 5/1 - obviously a toss-up race. I'll be happy with the minimum on a 7/2 or 4/1 horse. Exploring led the 3rd race field into the stretch, but weakened to be fourth. In the 4th it was my BET of the DAY! It was a Maiden Special for 3-year-olds, and yes, it was a Todd Pletcher colt. The first thing I saw I did NOT like.....Royal Son had already been out twice and ran second both times. Hmmmm, a play against?
Had it been anyone but Pletcher I would have looked for another. But then I dug deeper. In his debut he was second behind a horse named Pride of Stride who came back to run third in the Sapling Stakes and then won an allowance. But it was his second start that proved the key. He was AGAIN a best-of-the-rest second, but this time he was behind El Kabeir who was then up against it in the Grade 1 Champagne, but followed that up by winning the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club and last weekend won the first leg of the New York Derby preps, the Grade 3 Jerome. The one nagging issue was when I looked up the third place horse from that race, he'd not won in several trips since. Hmmmm. So I had planned a "prime time" $20 bet. But at the track with the cool breeze blowing through my hair :) I thought that this colt just might be THAT good, and maybe a Florida Derby contender for WinStar Farm and John Velazquez. The crowd was pounding him to 1/5 and Christina Bossonakis - Gulstream analysis - said he looked fantastic in the paddock. I made the command decision to play $50 to win! As I waited for the race to start I could imagine myself narrating the video clip of how impressive he looked. He had run his first two races by stalking the pace, which I thought was the way to win here, but he broke on top. I didn't like that, but thought that Johnny V. thought he had "THE Horse" and would just take it over from the get-go. But down the backstretch he was under pressure. That's ok I thought, he'll move clear with ease into the turn, but no, now he was battling and I could tell Velazquez was having to ask him to run. As they turned for home there were three of them across the track and the outside horse seemed to have all the momentum. Oh no! That one edged to the front and I thought it was over, but then Royal Son battled back.....but could never get to the unofficial winner, second best AGAIN! Because it was close and I was on the inside I thought there was the slightest of chances maybe I'd been squeezed....but as I watched the replay it looked like I had a clean run to the wire. Maybe, still, in the up-close slow motion finish I'd see.....no, wishful thinking Mark :( But wait a tic, announcer Larry Colmus came over the PA and said, "Ladies and Gentlemen, please hold all tickets there is a stewards' INQUIRY into the stretch run involving the unofficial winner." HEYYYY! As I watched I didn't see it at first, and then when the announcement followed that the rider of #5, who finished unplaced, was objecting to the top one I focused on that part of the run....now I see it:
Still, I've seen much worse have no change, but I've also seen less taken down. The side view - at left, made it look like the #5 really was shut off. But if you look at the head-on (at right) there seems to still be room to run AND the #5 was clearly behind the #8 when he came over. As I watched the replay they looked at it for several minutes. More times than if they were just taking a cursory look. Maybe I have a chance....but still, if I were making the call I would have let it stand. Then the replays stopped. Typically if a change is NOT being made nearly immediately they announce as such. But there was a delay, then a L-O-N-G wait. Now I'm thinking that while they COULD say no change, this long of a wait usually means that the stewards are looking at how far back in the field to place him. I was watching the tote board and the "8" was blinking. I took it as a bad sign that Pletcher had not kept his colt on the track....apparently there would not be a winner's circle photo - or did he know that there wasn't going to be a change? Suddenly on the next blink the "8" was gone and now the "2" was on top!
I WIN!
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So, for the day I won over 40% and had a clear profit! Truly, a "COOL Day!"
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