Day 37

Sunday January 25

 

I made my way out to the races today and truly enjoyed the weather.  But, I have to say, the story of the day were the two that got away.  While I did score six times on the afternoon there were NINE selections that ran second today.  Any hope of a big day went with that stat.  But even so, it was two in particular that cost me from having at least a good day, if not one of "those days" where I have a big money-making afternoon.  The first came in the fourth race.  It was a claiming event on the turf going 7 1/2 furlongs.  I liked 10/1 Raro.  The first sign of trouble came when she opened in the wagering as the 3/1 favorite and then Christina Bossinakiss put her on top.  But as post time approached she floated up to a fair 4/1.  I'd doubled the bet so I was looking at maybe cashing for over $50.  Jockey Paco Lopez had his mare tracking the speed and in perfect striking position to the stretch and as they approached where I was standing on the rail she was clear!  YES I'm about to have a nice score.  Then there was a blur of gray as a longshot came closing on the outside.....PHOTO FINISH!  Even after watching the slo-mo replay I thought I'd won.  I passed two guys who indicated to each other that my mare had held on.  Even watching the HRTV broadcast at home later their analysts both thought I'd hung on.  No.....second by a whisker.  I had a second consecutive photo in the fifth race, but I won this one and honestly while they had to look at the photo, it was obvious my filly had hung on.  Then in the sixth race we were going 7 1/2 furlongs again on the grass - this one was a maiden special for three-year-olds.  Yep, there was a Pletcher debuting colt, Itsonlyactingdad who was NOT the favorite.  But there was also a debuting colt from the Chad Brown barn who had Javier Castellano on board, Ayaady who was the program favorite.  I thought I might get a price but did NOT expect Aaady to be 8/5 while Itsonlydancingdad to be 10/1 in the early wagering.  As the money kept coming in like this I seriously considered putting Ayaady on top as a "prime time" play, but then I thought - what if this is one of those rare Pletcher scores and I had it, then changed my mind!  So I kept the bet.  As they hit the far turn Itsonlydancingdad was poised to strike while Ayaady was in fourth.  I forged to the front just as Castellano got his runner under way and by mid-stretch they were on even terms.  One head up and one head down to the wire, but I truly thought I had a very slight edge.  They hit the wire virtually together and when you watch the slo-mo in the video (above) you'll see what I mean.  Again several people I passed remarked that Itsonlydancingdad seemed to have held on.  Again the photo - second.  GRRRRRR.  Those two misses cost me over $150!  I'm usually good at letting losses go and moving on to the rest of the selections but the remainder of the day I kept thinking about how sooooo close I'd come to big winnings.  Sigh......

At the end of the day I had two double investments - both of which I thought were going to be handy winners - scratch at the gate, so I "won" those by getting the money back at least.  And then I closed out the day when my "BEST" at Santa Anita, Prize Exhibit was much the best. 

For the day I was just below 30% again.....but oh those two photos......

Week 8 Highlights

 

Day 36

Holy Bull Stakes Day

I would have liked to have made plans to be on track for this first big day for the sophomores, but two things were working against that happening.  First, I had my second procedure on my head Tuesday for removal of basal cell tissue.  And while it all went well, I just didn't feel 100% all week.  On Wednesday night Kim & I took our friend Elaine to see the Broadway production of the "The Lion King" and when we got home I just was "off" - and I was afraid a full day at the races was just pushing it.  Secondly, the weather forecast was for rain to move through the area on Saturday then have a real chill down on Sunday under sunny skies.  So I planned to head out tomorrow.  Because we didn't have any plans for Saturday, after I completed my handicapping of the Gulfstream card I followed my fall plan and downloaded a stakes-exclusive racing form from Brisnet.  This left me with a line-up of seventeen races to bet online.  The first three races did not go well, though in the first two you could make the argument that I should not have had expectations.  In Gulfstream's first my horse was a whopping 75/1.  I had thought he'd be 5/2 after the DRF made him 10/1.  I obviously mis-judged him.  Though to be fair heading into the far turn he was close enough if good enough.  No bet in the second; in the third I had a Javier Castellano runner for trainer Michael Maker.  I mocked the DRF for making these guys 12/1....but they went to the post at 17/1 and finished 9th.  Then in the fourth, Todd Pletcher sent out Overcontrol off a powerful maiden debut here.  He was the heavy 1/1 favorite.  But after pressing the pace to the turn he tossed out the anchor and sank to the back of the field to finish a dismal 9th.  WOW, didn't see that coming!  I passed the fifth and now we came to the 6th, a Maiden Special for three-year-olds.  And like so many of these this winter Pletcher had two that both looked good.  I went against Porch Pounder who was a $500K purchase and went with Khozan, a $1 million sales grad, ridden by Javier Castellano.  Now on just that info, who in their right mind would make them both 20/1 on their line?  I doubled the bet on Khozan who broke sharply and though wide, moved comfortably within striking range on the turn and then ran away from the field!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO! 

The $5.80 payoff netted me $29 and just like that I was nearly even again.  Now it was time for the stakes action and I was "ready to rumble!!!!"  Sigh.....nothing but disappointment - 6th in the Grade 3 Hutcheson, 7th in the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant, 7th in the Grade 2 Forward Gal, and 6th in the Kitten's Joy.  Meanwhile at Tampa - after one of my three stakes runners scratched - I was equally disappointed:  3rd in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay (after leading under a strong hold into the lane) and 3rd again in the Pelican Stakes;  at Santa Anita it was "longshot day" as big prices paid off all day - unbeaten Acceptance was 4th at 1/2, Heat Trap was 5th as the 2/1 favorite in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint, and San Onofre was 2nd at 3/5 in the Cal Cup Sprint.  It made for a L-O-N-G afternoon.  But sandwiched in the middle was THE race of the day on the national scene, the Grade 2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream.  This is the first real prep for 3-year-olds as they head towards the Florida Derby and onto the Kentucky Derby.  I looked over the field and thought it looked fairly obvious - Upstart had dominated state-bred MSW juveniles at the Spa this summer in his debut and then came right back to run all over his foes in the state-bred Funny Cide Stakes also at Saratoga.  Now, any two-year-old that wins impressively at Saratoga has got talent, even if those races were NY-bred races.  He'd get his acid test in the Grade 1 Champagne.  Daredevil, a Todd Pletcher colt, ran the fastest Beyer figure of the year for a two-year-old and dazzled....but Upstart was clearly the best of the rest in second.  Good enough for trainer Rick Violette to take his rising star out west to Santa Anita for the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  He had a wide draw and was bumped as he was making his move into the lane, but still was in second as Texas Red ran by them all in a scintillating performance.  Right on the wire Pletcher's other star, Carpe Diem rallied to nip Upstart for second.  So here's a colt with two wins to start his career then excellent second & third place finishes in back-to-back Grade 1 events.  AND he was working great.  What's not to like?  Duh.  But the crowd, and many handicappers liked Kiaran McLaughlin's Frosted.  He'd won in his debut then second time out was second in the Grade 2 Remsen despite a wide draw and trip.  He drew the rail and figured to have the early jump on Upstart.  I just didn't see it.  The crowd bet Frosted early, then they were both 9/5 with about five minutes to post time.  But as they left the gate Frosted took late action and was 3/2 while Upstart floated up to a generous 2/1.  As I thought, Frosted was not quick enough to make the lead so he was shuffled back.  Upstart was away smoothly and today was a close-up third.  I knew as they hit the backstretch that if he was as talented as I thought he was, this race was already over......and I was RIGHT!  As they hit the far turn Frosted was spinning his wheels in fourth while Upstart took flight for the wire!  The favorites finished 1-2, but it was a LONG way back to the runner-up as Upstart dominated!

Upstart RUNS AWAY IN GR 2 HOLY BULL

I had gone "prime time" on him and cashed for over $60!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!  That big win carried me through the day as I lost all those other stakes races.  I had three selections left, all at Sam Houston Park where it was their signature night.  They were hosting the Houston Ladies' Classic with several big-name fillies, but I didn't like any of them.  BUT, on the stakes undercard I had three plays.  In the Turf Sprint Heitai just looked WAY too quick for his competition; in the Allen's Landing for sophomores Al Stall's Exodus reminded me oh-so-much of his colt a few years ago, Departed, who became a multiple stakes winner; and in the lone graded event, the Grade 3 John Connally Turf Cup I thought Ken & Sarah Ramsey's Coalport, trained by Michael Maker was a standout - I made him my "best" of the evening.  Heitai broke slowly but before they'd gone a quarter of a mile he was in front.  Against stronger rivals I think they might have made him pay for the tardy beginning, but not tonight.  Still clear by a length on the wire.  Exodus was 9/2 in the program and I was hoping maybe we'd get 5/2 - no such luck as everyone who could read the Daily Racing Form saw what I did and he ran away from these as the heavy 2/5 favorite.  Finally in the Connally I thought Coalport would track the leaders, but right out of the gate he was quickly two in front and the race was for all intents and purposes over.  He took them gate-to-wire without ever taking a deep breath! 

So with these three straight wins I finished 5-for-17, a solid 29% on the day!

Days 35

Friday January 23:  Really?

WOW.....not once, not twice, but THREE times a longshot was on the lead and my choice was tracking them as the only logical runner who would catch them.  Not once not twice, but three times my rider seemed to have plenty of horse and as they turned for home I cruised up to engage the leader.  Then not once, not twice, but THREE TIMES my horse could not get by!  At even money with a triple investment and then TWICE with a double investment on a runner at 7/2 - ANY of the three win and it's a nice day!  Luckily I was able to salvage the day with a late play at the Fair Grounds.  I had turned on HRTV at noon with the intention of watching "The Player" with Aaron Vercruysee and Jeff Siegle.  I'd met both these guys at the Breeders' Cup in 2013 and I always enjoy their analysis.  Typically they do a rundown of the big races for the weekend and I thought that might be today.  Not so, but in the initial stages of the program they were highlighting what was going on around the country and Siegle mentioned that there was a lot of rain in New Orleans which would take the featured turf sprint off the grass.  He pointed out that this made Bourbon Cowboy and even tougher favorite because in his last he had been a very close second behind multiple stakes winning Cinco Charlie in the Sugarbowl Stakes.  So to run on dirt today, especially against a short field of runners who preferred turf would give him a big edge.  Siegle went so far as to say, ".....I don't see how he loses unless the sloppy going completely alters his form....."  Good enough for me.  I went PRIME TIME - PLUS with a $25 WIN bet.  It was only a five horse field but right away he was behind horses and jockey Miguel Mena took him to the rail.....really?  Asking for trouble.  Sure enough through the turn he had no where to go.  As heads turned for home there was a narrow seam on the rail and Mena headed for it.  But it slammed shut!  He put on the brakes (now we are at the 1/8th pole - lucky the Fair Grounds has a long stretch!) and he makes a right hand turn, splits horses and with clear sailing blows by in the final 16th!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!

Day 34

A GOOD Start To The Short Week

With the holiday racing on Monday we are only racing this week Thursday through Sunday.  Today I originally had six selections, but my top choice in the finale scratched out of the race.  So the week began in the Thursday opener where I liked Anfield Park with Javier Casellano.  Sent off as the 6/5 favorite he was a non-threatening third.  In the third I had my one and only added money investment.  We were going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf in a non-winners-of-two lifetime event.  My top pick was Stately Defence who I figured would NOT be the favorite.  That looked to be Big N Toasty who was 2/1 in the program, but his 12/1-6-1 record on the grass was a big turn-off to me.  Stately Defence had just missed going wire to wire against $20K "beaten" company (which means there WERE multiple winners in the field) and now would drop back to the nw2L condition from two back where he was a rallying third against $20K runners, like these.  I thought with Javier Castellano on board he'd be able to look at the Form and see his best shot was to stalk and run late, which is exactly what he did.  Blew by turning for home and cruised home!  And the best part was the price......

That's right, a nice 2/1 - $6.20 payoff generating a return on investment of $31.00!  I am guaranteed to win today.  In the fifth I was the 6/5 favorite with Southern Stroll - second.  In the 7th we were on the turf again, open claiming going 7 1/2 furlongs.  My top pick was Tiz Sardonic Joe.  He won the Grade 2 Ft. Lauderdale here in 2013, but has lost a few steps over the years and now finds himself with the blue-collar runners.  Still he was last seen in allowance company at Tampa and anything close to his "A" game would put him the easiest kind of winner.  Indeed it was today as he bounded from the gate, right to the front and never looked back winning EASILY!  He paid $6.00 again and I was sorry I had not invested more.  In the 9th I had two runners I analyzed.  I went with Aquinnah who was 6/1 in the program and was a 4x winner of turf sprints.  But I mentioned that 15/1 Freewest was dropping in class, like my pick, but routinely sets :21 and change / :44 and change fractions and that would put him on the lead...dangerous if let loose up front.  Aquinnah tracked Freewest into the stretch, but was no match for that one who paid $36.....wow, should have bet that one!

But the best news was the email I received later in the day (see top of this entry) where Gulfstream Park informed me that we were second in the Gulfstream "Fan Photo" contest.  The free seats and programs were nice, but best of all is the book.  This book was published last year in celebration of Gulfstream's 75th anniversary and is a history of the track filled with photos.  I wanted to buy it last winter but it was way too much - $75.  I put it on both my Christmas and Birthday wish lists, but told everyone it was an expensive gift for something I'd only look at occasionally.  Still, when this Championship Season opened in December I went to the gift shop to see if the book was there (it was) and to see if it was on sale (it was NOT!).  So now my patience is rewarded!

Days 32 - 33

Disappointing End To An Otherwise GOOD Week

Yes, the last to days of the week were nothing to write home about.  Sunday the only win I had on the day was in the sixth when Pearl of a Girl moved four wide on the turn from post 12 to wear down the leaders late.  The $6.60 payoff let me cash for over $30, but that was it as none of the other four even hit the board.  Sunday was even worse when I was winless with a second and a third.  But, it wasn't just me that took a beating as the winners wee nearly all longshots:  $30.20, $22.20, $14.00, $51.00, $13.60, $47.00, $33.20, and $17.80 were the winning payoffs in eight of the eleven races today.  Still for the week I was over 30%, so I'll take that. 

Check out the weekly highlight video to watch my eleven winners!



Day 31

Sunshine Millions Day

An EXCELLENT Day At Gulfstream

And that's will be the focus of today's journal.  I handicapped several other tracks (Fair Grounds, Tampa, Aqueduct, Parx, and Santa Anita) but of the seven wins on the day FOUR were local and they were the highlights of the day.  Check out the video recap at the bottom to find out about the other wins.  I passed on the opener at Gulfstream, so the first bet of the day came in the second, a Maiden Special for 3-year-olds going two turns at a mile and a sixteenth.  Like several times already at the meet, there were TWO Todd Pletcher colts.  The task would be to pick the right one!  In post two was Old Mountain Lane.  I knew this guy.....when he first showed up here it was in a seven furlong MSW on Opening Weekend.  He was exciting a best of the rest second out of a race that had already produced multiple winners.  He went off as the favorite and was in front close to the line when the "other" Pletcher colt, Itsaknockout came flying by to nip him on the wire.  Well, Itsaknockout stretched out in his next start and was sensational.  So today looked to be Old Mountain Lane's day.  The other Pletcher colt was named JS Bach and he too had been second in his latest.  But that had been at 5 1/2 furlongs.  His Beyer that day, a huge 92, was the best in the field, but could he do that again, and going around two turns?  That was a lot to ask I thought, so I tabbed Old Mountain Lane.  Then on Friday morning on the talk radio show I listen to they had HRTV's Caton Bradar on to preview the Millions Day program.  She talked about some of the big races and at the end of the segment she made the comment, "....watch out for JS Bach on the undercard, he looks very talented...." Hmmmm.  I considered switching my picks.  Then I saw the Gulfstream preview video with on-track analyst Christina Bossanakis - her closing comment was, ".....I'm really looking forward to seeing JS Bach run tomorrow....."  And finally, when I downloaded the DRF Analysis of the card, Mike Welsch not only liked JS Bach as well, he made JS Bach his "BEST BET!"  So now we have three professionals who are around the track, the horses, and the stables everyday and they ALL like the horse that I was torn between putting first or second.  I switched the order, re-worded my analysis sheet and tripled the bet on him!  He broke alertly and went right to the front.  The fractions were honest and he had company pushing him just enough so he wasn't on an easy lead.  As they hit the far turn the others began their run in earnest, but jockey John Velazquez shook the reigns and he rebroke to burst home winning with authority as he distanced himself from the field with each and every stride. 

The crowd had sent him off at 4/5 (ironically the second place horse was Old Mountain Lane!) and so I cashed for nearly $30!  He looked so good that on my video I remarked I MIGHT have just found my Florida Derby horse!  In the third I liked Libby'sluckycharm who was 5-for-5 in the exacta at the distance and had won for races.  Rallied late behind a loose-on-the-lead frontrunner to be a distant third.  In the fourth I went with a 30/1 shot, Biedermeir was a turf runner for Team Pletcher and I wasn't about to let a longshot from that barn beat me....distant sixth as my third choice won the race.  In the fifth it was the start of the Sunshine Millions program and it was the sprint.  At first I was against Happy My Way who'd be the favorite and was on the rail.  But the more I looked at it he was clearly the class of the field, hd posted six straight triple digit Beyer figures with FOUR of them HERE.  Even Joe Bravo who is off to a 3-for-30 start to the meet only had to get out in front and it was all over.  Right to the front he broke and he was on an easy lead.....I'm home free I thought.  As the field turned for home and I anticipated his burst to the wire - nothing.  The winner was ridden by Javier Castellano - the top rider - and had been picked by Bossinakis!  Paid over $11.  Sigh....... My friend Jim Anderson arrived with two family members and we sat together in the grandstand as they went to post for the sixth, the Sunshine Millions Turf.  This race was at 1 1/16th mile and it looked to have a lot of speed in the race, so I looked for a closer.  I settled on Manchurian High.  He was exiting two marathon events -at 1 1/2 miles, so the cutback was a concern.  But two back he'd won the $100K Laurel Cup, and in his last, the Grade 3 William L. McKnight he was five wide while trying to close into the pedestrian splits of :51 for a half and a pokey 1:17 for 3/4 of a mile.  Still he was a close third.  That was his first start off a layoff AND the figure he earned in the McKnight was nearly identical to that of the Laurel race - which meant there was a good chance he'd move forward today.  And with the anticipated hot pace I thought that was a real possibility.  He also was NOT going to be the favorite.  He was near the back as pace was indeed hot, then as they were on the far turn he started picking off horses one by one.  With about a furlong to go he swept by and drew off impressively!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO! 

He paid a generous $8.20 and I was cashing for over $40.  I told Jim he was my good luck charm!  In the 7th there was an allowance race to split the five stakes races.  This too was on the turf and also at the 8 1/2 furlong distance.  Pleuven was my choice.  He'd won last two starts in Europe before coming over here last year to run third in the Grade 3 Dania Beach and then fourth (beaten 1 1/2 lengths) in the Grade 3 Palm Beach for Chad Brown.  He'd been away from the races since that March run, but Brown was a good 30% with long layoff types, he had Javier Castellano on board, AND he'd put Pleuven through a series of solid works for today.  Castellano had him on the rail all the way through the far turn saving ground, but as they turned for home he switched outside an Pleuven gave him a sudden acceleration and he shot to the front in the final 1/16th of a mile!  Best of all, the odds were a sharp 9/2! 

The payoff on the board of $11.60 meant I was cashing for nearly $60!  The eighth was the third of the five Sunshine Million Stakes, the Distaff.  Todd Pletcher's Dame Dorothy was my top choice and she was a Grade 3 winner.  But she was stuck on the outside in post eleven.  I was a little hesitant when I read Pletcher's comments that this was NOT the original planned comeback spot, but when Gulfstream opened the Millions stakes races up to NY and Maryland-breds it looked like too good of a spot to pass up....even though it was at seven furlongs and she's probably better (Pletcher said) going two turns.  She was wide from the start, but in perfect position to strike as they hit the far turn.  She began to move and as they spun out of the turn headed for the finish line she'd swept in front by nearly two lengths.  Coasted home and I had my FOURTH winner at Gulfstream and my second SSM race! 

The toteboard flashed $6.00 and that was more than fair to me, I cashed for $30.  I was a good second in the SSM Filly & Mare Turf with Waterway Run and then had a troubled start in the SSM Classic - fourth.  I also missed in the finale.  But for the day at Gulfstream I'd hit on four of ten, and cashed out to the tune of  $156 for the $115 I'd wagered!  I won for the day at Tampa, but what really cost me on the bottom line was that at the Fair Grounds where it was "Road To The Derby Day" I missed on all five stakes races with only two of them even hitting the board - and that included a 3/5 favorite and a 4/5 favorite.  At Aqueduct the "other" horse won the feature as I listed the winner second, after she'd NOT won for me last time.....sigh.  I did win once in NY with a 1/2 favorite.  And at Santa Anita I had what looked like two obvious winners, and they looked like it at the top of the stretch (at 3/5 and 4/5), but both collapsed late.  So, for the day I had seven wins from thirty selections.  Gulfstream Park was also playing host to the Eclipse Awards Saturday night after the races.  The next day when the winners were announced I noted that of the ten awards given to thoroughbred champions, SEVEN  awards went to horses that I'd won with:  Horse-of-the-Year and 3yo of the Year went to California Chrome who I'd won with in the Preakness.  Untapable was the three-year-old filly of the year - I'd cashed on her in the Fair Ground Oaks, the Kentucky Oaks, the Mother Goose, the Cotillion, and the Breeders' Cup Distaff.  Ironically her lone loss of the year came when I went to see her LIVE when taking on the boys in the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park.  Close Hatches was a winner for me in the Personal Ensign - she was older Filly & Mare champion; and the winner of the Older Male & Turf Horse of the Year went to Main Sequence who I'd had in the Joe Hirsch on Breeders' Cup Preview Day at Belmont.  Congrats to those top notch runners and to the three big winners in the human categories who provided me with so many wins:  Top Trainer Todd Pletcher; top jockey Javier Castellano; and top breeders Ken & Sarah Ramsey! 

Check out the highlight video for the entire day here:

Day 30

My Second 3-Bagger Of The Month

It's a different mind-set when I'm working on a Handicapping Project that entails daily handicapping and selections.  Unlike a typical day at the races where I'll have 20 to 30 selections and it's not uncommon to win at least seven or eight races, winning more than two is a rare treat on a daily basis when you only have five to seven selections.  And you have to accept this as you follow your results on a daily basis knowing that over the course of a week or a month you'll get your share of winners, just not in the same kind of bunches they come in on a full day of racing.  So, today was one of "those days" where I upped the winning totals by cashing on three different winners and two of them came at nice prices!  The first win didn't come until the fourth race.  In the opener I was third at 2/1 with Latent Fire, and that is significant because not only did it cost me money by losing, but it cost me money I WOULD have made with my winning selection in the fourth.  Here's the story......in Latent Fire's last race, it was a "beaten" claiming race for this same $6K price tag.  She had been second-best in that race behind a multiple winner and well-clear of the show horse who had come right back to win in open company.  So the drop from "beaten" claimers to restricted claimers was big.  This is significant because the winner of that race was No Act, who was my top selection in the fourth race.  I wrote in my analysis that if Latent Fire were to win in the opener and with the show horse already having come back to win, then I would consider upping the bet on No Act.  Well, Latent Fire did not win, so I stuck with my double investment.  No Act was also a Gulfstream 40% Club Play for Jorge Navarro.  Over the last four seasons when bringing back a horse first or second off a 30 day or more break he'd won with five-of-seven....so when No Act won last time out that moved up to six-for-eight!  Should have upped the bet - with No Act near the back as they hit the far turn he accelerated effortlessly and inhaled the field.  Blew by under wraps to score with ease!  Make the Navarro angle SEVEN-for-NINE!  And I had my first winner! 

In the 7th it was a marathon turf event going 1 7/16 miles.  Last time out Change of Command had bested Belisarius.  Change of Command had coasted on an easy lead, then dueled with Belisarius through the lane before both were caught near the wire by a deep closer.  I thought Change of Command would have more pace pressure today and that would set the table for his rival.  The crowd agreed and made Belisarius the 7/5 favorite.  But instead, Change of Command was loose on the lead again and coasted home as the wire-to-wire winner; I settled for second.  I had two plays left in the last two races of the day, both on the grass.  In the ninth it was an allowance-optional claiming race with a $100K price tag so you know these guys have some ability.  But the "story" of the race was the jockey on my pick Sky Blazer.  Rajiv Maragh is a top rider - in fact he was the regular rider for one of my all time favorites, multiple Breeders' Cup Champion Groupie Doll.  Back in October in the Grade 1 Jockey Gold Cup at Belmont he'd broken his arm in a spill and today marked his first race back....on my horse.  Sky Blazer was 24/2-3-4 at all other tracks, but at Gulfstream he had a 6/3-1-0 record.  He, like his jockey, had not been to the races in months (since November) but his pp's showed four excellent races first off the shelf.  He had a bullet work and there seemed to be several speed types to set the table for his patented late run.  He was last as they hit the far turn, but then he was FLYING through the lane and in a perfectly judged ride was JUST UP IN TIME!  How exciting for Rajiv Maragh....and for me! 

And the price....he paid $6.20!  Then in the finale it was an even better pay out.  I liked Lightouse Sound who was coming off a six week vacation last time out when just missing.  With one under his belt, and considering he was three clear of ELEVEN other horses off the shelf I thought he was set for a big effort.  He was chasing Fan Base, who'd won on the lead for me last time, but like Change of Command in the earlier race today I thought he'd have pressure. And he did while I sat just off the pace.  Lighthouse made his move to the lead at the top of the stretch then held off the closers late to WIN!  The payoff was generous $10!  So for the day I finished 3-for-5 and cashed for nearly $60 and made a profit of almost $25!

Days 28 - 29

Slow Start To Extended Week

This week we are racing for six days with a special holiday program on Monday.  And the week did not get off to a flying start.  In the first race I had a selection in, the second, my top choice Centella went right to the front and I thought looked ready to wire the field.  But as they crossed over to the main track leaving the one-turn mile chute she bolted and tossed the rider!  The fourth race winner paid $91.60 - no, not my pick as I was 7th at 6/1.  The 6th I had picked Lemon Up if this sprint came off the turf, it stayed on the grass.  Contemplated sticking with the speedster making her turf debut, but in the end stayed away.  Good thing, she was second at odds on.  In the 7th Candy Man Can was third at 5/1 on the grass.  The winner paid $76.20!  Then the biggest disappointment of the day when General A Rod made his return to the races in an allowance spot.  He'd won the Gulfstream Park Derby and was graded placed in the Derby preps before running in all three Triple Crown Races.  Towered over these on class.....was off slowly and seemed to have to be pushed from the beginning to run.  Was lucky to get fourth while the winner paid $55.40.  Finally got on the board when Leveraged Loan won the finale.  He stalked the pace to the top of the stretch and drew off with ease.  Though he was the 3/2 favorite, the $25 in winnings was enough to make the day's losses "manageable" considering I was only 1-for-5. 

Thursday:  Strong Bounce Back Day!  WHOOO HOOO

On the second day of racing I came out guns blazing!  The first race of the day was also my first bet.  My pick in this mid-level claiming sprint was Dad'z Laugh.  This time last year he was running in stakes races and when he finally got his black type score in early summer it was my 4,900th win.  Then he went off form and so his connections dropped him in for a claiming tag last time out to boost his confidence.  He responded with a rousing win.  It was OBVIOUS, duh, at least to me that he was rounding back in form.  So with him still in for a claiming tag I thought he'd be odds on.  The crowd made him a tepid 2/1 favorite.  Top jockey Javier Castellano went right to the front despite the outside draw and the race was all but over already.  Coasted on the lead to the wire and I'm off to a $30 collection at he windows!  

In the third I ran second with a minimum investment runner.  Then the BEST of the day was in the fifth.  Todd Pletcher was bringing back his filly, Got Lucky.  She dominated one-turn mile maidens HERE last winter and then went on a steady diet of stakes races facing Untapable, My Miss Sophia, Stopcharginmaria, an Don't Tell Sophia - all multiple graded stakes winners.  She was dropping out of the Grade 1 Spinster to face nw2x allowance foes and just seemed to TOWER over these.  I considered upping the bet to $50 to win, but when I recalled how General A Rod had faltered yesterday under similar circumstances I kept the wager at "prime time $20."  She was in prime position throughout and when asked to run she collared the leader in mid-stretch, then edged clear late.  It was not a dominant, breath-taking win, but it was a WIN and I was cashing for another $40!  

In ended up only having one more selection on a day where so many races were puzzling because after running 5th in the 9th race my triple investment on Purely Boy on the turf went down the drain as he was a late scratch just minutes before post time at 6/5.  So for the day I was super 2-for-4 an had won nearly all the money back from yesterday.  Ironically for the week I'm now at 3-for-10.....always right around 30% or a little better!

Day 27

January 11:  It's A Washout, But....

BET of the Day WINS!

I originally had nine selections from the eleven race card to close down the week, and I was certain that the four slated for the turf would go as scheduled because last week the grass races remained on despite overnight rains on a couple of days, and on a couple of instances it was actually raining when they ran the race.  So, this morning I didn't think there was any reason to check later in the day about the status of the races.  Well, as it turns out we were off the turf, so I had only five handicapping selections today.  The first race on the card was a starter-optional claiming and my top choice was a Gulfstream 40% Club play for trainer Peter Walder with Javier Castellano on board:  Palatine Hill.  There were actually two club plays in here, but Chillin Dylan had earned his best numbers against cheaper company and by coming from off the pace.  Palatine Hill had a pace-pressing style that plays better here AND his best figures were earned against better.  When I opened the replays this evening to watch, while I was disappointed we were off the grass - costing me the four plays - I was delighted for this race.  I had seen Palatine Hill romp twice last winter on off tracks.  Castellano gave him a smart ride as 'Hill is a giant horse and so the two-time riding champion gave up some ground around both turns but kept the big boy out in the open where he could run free.  As they moved through the far turn he made his move and announcer Larry Colmus called it point on when he said, "....and Palatine Hill comes lumbering up to the leaders...."  He went right on by them and galloped out to the wire to score! 

The crowd wasn't fooled and had bet him down to 4/5 favoritism so I cashed for a touch below $20.  The next live bet was in the third where Upon Reflection was sent out by trainer Jorge Navarro.  This six-year-old had been in the Navarro barn back in 2013 when he was claimed by Navarro and he'd won at this level.  But last August he lost him through the claiming box for $5K.  But right away he paid $16K to get him back.  The drop in for $6K today seemed to be putting him where he rightfully belonged.  The main threat seemed to be Kirk Ziadie's Yes It's Me, and as the field turned for home it was that one on the lead with Upon Reflection having dead aim on him with what looked like all the momentum.  He got right to his neck but could not get by (that's him, #8 on the outside in the photo above).  Sigh........The fourth race today was my "BET of the Day."  It was a six furlong sprint for 3-year-old maiden special weight runners.  As I wrote in my analysis, everyone (well, everyone who follows the races at Gulfstream) knows that in MSW races for 3-year-olds you start by evaluating the Todd Pletcher horse, if there is one.  It's like Saratoga in the summer with two-year-olds.  If you go against Pletcher you will be wrong a vast majority of the time, so you'd better have a really solid choice at a really good price.  For players like me, I have always shown a flat-bet profit by taking the Pletcher maidens at both of these meets.  But on occasion the other handicappers go for a "value" play and I get a fair price.  And to be fair there are a few that appear vulnerable, but like every winter this year I went against Pletcher in a couple spots early in December thinking his runners were going to get beat and I paid the price by missing a good payoff.  So I'm automatic on Pletcher.  Well, Materiality in here was NOT one you'd want to go against.  The $400K sales purchase had been working bullets since coming to So Florida in October.  He was CLEARLY the one to beat.  I thought he towered over the field so I went "PRIME TIME" on him.  He stalked the 13/1 pace setter into the turn, collared him and instead of blowing by he gradually edged clear.  When a closer began to gather momentum John Velazquez opened Materiality up and he drew off with authority! 

The 8/5 post time odds were absurdly high in my opinion for this kind of Pletcher runner.  Sometimes he'll send out a 3-year-old who has lost once or twice in New York and you might think he's not as good as most, but a debuting runner with a price tag like this?  I'll gladly accept the $50 and change!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!  In the fifth I had a Gulfstream 40% Club play on a Pletcher runner.  He's had many different angles over the years, but this year the only one that's held over the last two winters is with claiming runners for less than $40K.  Seems odd for the quality of horses he has, but Palace Gate fit that profile.  As I wrote, anyone but Pletcher training and this guy would have been a play against.  And he ran like that - fifth at even money!  The eighth was my final pick and in it Roy Aire ran poorly from the start, finishing 12th at 5/2.  So, for the day I was a solid 40% with 2 wins in five selections for a profit of nearly $20.  Before I close, just a note to be honest about my betting.  There are occasional times when I will add money or a bet with "my own money" that I don't count as a handicapping play.  And then there are some days like today that if I had been at the races or betting live during the races online I would NOT have stuck with my turf runners on the main track.  But I did make the bets online this morning.  So I had one of the four scratch and ran 3rd, 9th, and 2nd with them.  But when this happens I typically either count them all, or none.  And today it was none.

Week 6 Highlights

 

Day 26

A G-R-E-A-T Day At Gulfstream

It was indeed a great day, the kind of day that lingers with you and makes you want to come to the races for this kind of experience.  Big crowds, beautiful weather, great racing, and cashing lots of tickets.  It doesn't get any better than this. 

But it didn't start out like it would be that kind of day; but then again, that was one of the things that DID make it a great day.  When I arrived at Gulfstream the first thing I did was check for scratches.  I had big plans for a "frantic" day of racing as I'd handicapped SEVEN different venues and had more than forty selections. Not to be.  The complete Aqueduct card was cancelled due to snow and cold.  Tampa, Laurel, Gulfstream and Santa Anita all had scratches and now I've got thirty picks which is a busy day, but my picks ran late into the evening so from 12:30 to 6:30 I was operating on races about every 20-30 minutes, which is OK, but not the frantic pace I had thought I'd enjoy.  So, out at the races a little early my first pick was still about 25 minutes away in the opener at Gulfstream when I went inside the simulcast center and looked up.  On the Tampa monitor the opener was less than five minutes to post and the #7 was hovering at 3/5.  Hmmmm, I opened the entries on my phone and saw it was an Antonio Gallardo runner who'd been 8/5 in the program.  I thought, "I've got all this Aqueduct money, let's fire away!  Gallardo had Blending stalking the pace into the lane, surged to the front and held the runner-up at bay through the final 100 yards.  I WIN!  This could be a very good day if this is the way my racing luck will go I thought!  I'd doubled the bet and collected over $15.  Well, uh, no.  When Blending crossed the finish line a little before 12:30 pm I was destined to not cash another ticket until after 3 pm.  That my friends is a long afternoon and can shake the confidence of even the most avid racing fan.  The opener at Gulfstream was a maiden claiming turf sprint for sophomores.  There looked to be a chance for an upset as all the major contenders were exiting the same race and none had distinguished themselves in any other races.  I went with Bigger Than Boss who was a first time starter for Michael Maker. 

Bigger Than Boss broke a bit slowly but when he swung wide into the lane he was absolutely flying late, a clear best-of-the-rest second to the free on the lead winner.  And it was a big 6/1 - that would have been nice.  At Tampa Flow's Strawberry went right to the front and was well held while the closest chasers were being hard ridden.  I thought I was long gone at 8/5, but she weakened late to fourth.  In the third at Gulfstream it was a good time to probably play against Commissioner who was certain to take money.....last seen finishing second in the Grade 1 Belmont last June at big odds, he was in 2x allowance company, but off a long layoff.  Todd Pletcher had him working sharply and he'd won here last year at this distance.  He went right to the front, but wasn't clearly the best as he had to fight.  But he was in front 100 yards from the line, but was third in a 3-way photo.  I got my second win of the day, and the only one in this streak when Lots o' Lex scored at Tampa.  Now typically speed is NOT the way to go over the Oldsmar course, but it has seemed to play more fairly this winter.  Last out Lots o' Lex had faded going a mile, but I chalked it up to facing winners for the first time and I thought that the longer distance today - nine furlongs - would allow her to relax.  Right on point Mr. Mark.  She cleared the field early and was never threatened.  At Laurel Final Forest chased the loose-on-the-lead front runner from start to finish, third at 5/2.  At Gulfstream Xtra Spice was looking to buck the trend of Bill Mott first-time starters.  Only 4-for-85 over the last two years, but this filly was working sensationally with four straight bullets.  I thought it was not a good ride as she was pinned inside throughout and when finally able to get off the rail was full of run, but well behind the winner - 2nd.  But wait, objection!  Memories of the win on Thursday came back as the claimed foul was not that serious, but it did impede another......no, results stood.  At the Fair Grounds Rosie Napravnik's husband Joe Sharp is off to a great start (34%) and winning over 40% with new horses to his barn.  Such was the case with Bellamy's Verdict.....but second best all the way around the oval at 3/5.  Then at Laurel Iknewuweretrouble dueled on the lead from the gate to the final 16th, then weakened to be third at 8/5.  I turned the page with only two wins on my selection sheet to start the day.  I was wondering what kind of day this was going to be, but I told myself (a) enjoy the day of racing, (b) stick with the program, you never know until the end of the day what kind of day you'll remember this as, and finally (c) the big races were still to come. 

The next race on my sheet was a turf claiming event at the Fair Grounds.  Abena had the top rider, James Graham, a 5/2-2-0 local record, and the perfect stalking style for this event.  He was a nice 9/2 price, but as they hit the first turn he took up sharply and then was floated about ten wide losing all chance.  My son Jeff called.  He was at the track in Houston but all but two tracks were blacked out due to a contract dispute and one track he could play was the Fair Grounds and this happens to start his day.  He left within the hour, felt bad for him that he couldn't have enjoyed what was going to be a good day for me in the end.  I finally was able to cash a ticket in the sixth at Gulfstream.  We were on the turf for an starter-optional claiming event.  Javier Castellano was on board Empire Knight for Michael Maker, making this a Gulfstream 40% Club play.  The pace was very quick so Castellano had his horse in mid-pack to the far turn.  Then he moved up with authority and blew by to win as much the best!  Not only am I finally in the winner's circle, it was at a nice $6.80 price! 

At the Fair Grounds Catherine's Dream pressed the pace and stopped to be fifth, but then came the first of many BIG wins on the day.  The 7th at Gulfstream was the Grade 3 Hal's Hope, the first of three graded events on the day.  In this race last year Lea had made his first start since moving into the Bill Mott barn.  He'd entered into Mott's care with a solid turf resume, a Grade 3 win and a runner-up performance behind Horse-of-the-Year Wise Dan.  But Mott put him onto the dirt and I picked him, with thoughts of the same move with the great Cigar.  He won last year and paid over $17 then came right back to win the Grade 1 Donn Handicap.  But then he'd fallen ill and had not been seen until today.  He'd worked sharply and he'd won off layoffs before.  I made him my "BEST" of the day at Gulfstream.  It was a short five horse field and he found himself blocked behind all four others as they swung out of the turn and into the stretch.  As jockey Joel Rosario later told the press, he was waiting for a horse to move in or to move out to create a seam, but by the time they passed the final furlong marker he was still blocked.  Rosario swung Lea five wide and stepped on the gas.  The acceleration was sensational and he blew by them in the shadow of the wire where I was standing!  YEEESSSSSS! 

He'd been a nice 2/1 early in the betting but was bet late to go off at even money.  But with my investment I cashed for $40.  Walked inside and was disappointed when Russell Baze - the jockey who RULES Golden Gate Fields was third at 8/5.  But moments later it was time for the feature at the Fair Grounds, the Pan Zaretta Stakes, a turf sprint.  Good Deed was the obvious choice, but she'd been beaten in this spot last year at odds on and the rider was struggling at the meet.  To be fair she'd won with her in the prep for this.  You either are a Beyer guy or you're not - I am.  Of the last 98 races by the five rivals she'd face today only three races would be competitive with her last four turf start figures:  99-110-90-97.  But all three were earned by a nine-year-old who was 12/1 in the program trained by a 1-for-33 conditioner.  Add in the last out sensational score AND a best-of-59 bullet since and Good Deed looked tough.  She was indeed.  Right to the front and in hand throughout to score by daylight without really having to take a deep breath.  Yet another stakes event was up next on the simulcast monitors, the Turf Dash from Tampa.  The two runners I liked best were Green Mask and Bold Thunder.  The latter was a VERY quick sprinter and had had success here at Gulfstream, even winning a stakes race.  But that figured here because the turf course, and most especially in turf sprints, speed holds.  But at Tampa typically speed is NOT the way to go.  Considering my earlier comments that the course has been more fair, this wouldn't make me go against Bold Thunder.  What I did not like was he was in post ten AND there were at least three to his inside who figured to sprint full bore out of the gate.  Sure, he'd clear on his quickest day, but with the wide draw and the early effort I thought he'd be susceptible to a closer.  Such was the style of Green Mask who went off at a generous 9/2.  And I was right that he was the closer as he was FLYING late blowing by the entire field.....save Bold Thunder who'd cleared the field, set insane fractions and won in track-record time!  The first bet of the day at Santa Anita was next and Glory ran to her 4/5 odds and ran away from the field providing me with my 7th win of the day!  The day has now officially turned around :)  I had tripled the bet and cashed for nearly $30.  Next on the sheet was the second of the graded events here at Gulfstream.  When I'd seen that Parranda was running in the Grade 3 Marshua's River I wanted to try to beat her.  I've always thought that she might be more highly regarded that she deserved.  But when she was transferred to Jerry Hollendorfer out west she'd won a Grade 3 and a Grade 2 and nearly won a Grade 1 when edged by multiple Grade 1 winner Emollient in the Rodeo Drive - the prep for the Breeders' Cup.  Her last was a close sixth, beaten less than four lengths after setting the pace.  Typically horses do not run well first out of the Breeders' Cup, no matter how much time passes by.  But the field looked to be inferior to her ability on her best day, she had four bullet works, AND was a Horse-for-the-Course (6-for-12).  She was sent off at a generous 6/5 (considering all the info I just listed) and stalked the front-runner all the way to the turn.  I knew she was just waiting to blow by and win and was confident throughout.  She made her move and ran away for fun!  WHOOOO HOOOOOO! 

I had originally planned to double the bet, but with the success I was having and after re-examining my comments I tripled the bet!  The move paid off as I collected over $30.  Russell Baze disappointed at Golden Gate again, and I started to think of abandoning my picks here which I'd made almost exclusively because Baze wins "every" race at GG.  I lost again at the Fair Grounds when Calipari's Ktten was second at 6/5 behind my second choice who wired the field.  But I got back in the winner's circle for the third time at Tampa when Chelios rallied in an entry-level allowance at 9/5.  I had added money - doubled the bet - so I collected nearly $30 again.  Bureu de Change was third at Gulfstream after a slow start, beaten by my second choice.....this seems to happen frequently!  But FINALLY Russell Baze paid off at Golden Gate.  Look Quickly was the DRF "Best" of the day and she tracked the 4/1 leader, collared her at the top of the stretch, but then dueled in a terrific horse race to the wire where she was JUST up in time! 

I had gone prime time so I cashed for over $25....not a great profit, but considering I'd lost two already here I'll take it.  I now seriously considered dumping the last three Golden Gate picks.  But then I said to myself, you know what will happen.....Baze will win and I'll be shaking my head - stick with the plan!  Missed at Tampa when Kathy's Kitten did not fire at even money in the finale over the turf, but minutes later it was time for the final graded event, the featured Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale, here at Gulfstream.  The class play would have been Za Approval who had been second several times to Wise Dan and was a multiple graded winner.  And though his form looked off, you could make the excuse that his training had been off when forced to miss a prep for the Breeders' Cup due to soft turf.  But, there was not only this but he was moving to a new barn, coming off a layoff AND had an outside post.  I went with Todd Pletcher's Mshawish.  He'd been my top pick on Haskell Day in the Grade 3 Oceanport when making his first start in North America.  He was too far back and moved too early under Joe Bravo.  Next out he won at Saratoga and I had him!  But he got DQ'd.  But in his last, the $100K El Prado here he was sensational.  That might have seemed like a peak effort, but if his Euro numbers could be trusted he still had room to move forward again.  He was being bet as the favorite, but I thought the 9/5 price on the board was much higher than it should have been.  I had mixed reactions when GP Analyst, the lovely Christina Bossinakis remarked on the inter-track broadcast that the Thoroughgraph number Mshawish earned last out, a "0," was much faster than anyone in here.  That kind of number on that scale is the kind that horses often bounce off of, but again, I thought he was still improving.  Mshawish tracked the leaders, floated wide into the lane and then sprinted home.  The final margin was close, but I never doubted he would or did win! 

Again, I'd tripled the bet, and at 9/5 I collected well over $40!  And with this victory I completed a sweep of the three graded stakes!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO!  Missed in the finale with a Michael Maker FTS turf sprinter - the way I had started the day - second best, just like the opener.  Then missed again at Golden Gate Fields with a Baze favorite, 2nd at 4/5.  The last race I was watching live was the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita, the first step towards the Kentucky Derby on the California trail.  The heavy favorite figured to be Calculator, and he earned that respect by running a best-of-the rest second behind the clear leader out west, American Pharaoh in not one, but TWO Grade 1 events.  The problem was, he was STILL A MAIDEN!  But he looked much the best of these and I went "prime time."  He waited patiently behind a fast pace about five off the leaders until they hit the turn.  And then here he came with the classic winning move.  You love horses that are gaining on the leaders through the turn as they have the momentum entering the stretch.  But best of all, when they are moving by runners without being asked, you know you are looking good.  Once heads turned for home he opened up and won with authority! 

My ELEVENTH win of the day!  I headed home with four plays left on my sheet, two of which were from Golden Gate.  And I was certainly glad I'd kept to the program as they BOTH won, including Elmonte Cristo who was 2/1 - unbelievable with Russell Baze - and I cashed for $30 to close the day down. 

For the day I won with 13-of-31, a whopping 42%.  And here's an interesting side story.  Before I left for the day I told Kim I was wearing the new watch she'd given me for Christmas/Anniversary and that we'd find out if it was a "lucky watch" because if I lost it had to be the bad karma of the watch.  I said this because I remembered one day last year where I'd worn a watch for the first time and had a good day.  So the day goes by and obviously the watch has a "good vibe."  So I go to write my summary on my web page and I look back to last year's Fort Lauderdale Stakes Day to see how I'd done as I knew it was a good day, but I couldn't remember how good.  Well that day I'd won two of the three Gulfstream graded events, I'd won 18 races including the Sham!  But here's the freaky coincidence.  As I scrolled down the journal I see one of my first remarks in 2014 was how on THAT DAY I'd worn a watch for the first time!  You can't make this stuff up!  Check out the day's highlight video below: 

January 10th Highlight Video

 

Day 25

January 9 - Not The Kind Of Day I Expected

After a great adventure on Thursday today was a big disappointment.  Not that every day is going to be a winning day, but after coming out on top yesterday I expected at least a couple of wins, but instead it wasn't to be.  I thought it would be a good day when in the third, my first selection on the day, saw Centrique win.  There looked to be one speedster to sit off of, but instead she went right to the front, dueled with that one and disposed of her on the turn then drew off as much the best at 1/2 odds. 

In the fourth Skirt Skate was outrun from the gate and was never in it, fifth.  My top pick in the 5th scratched and toyed with the idea of playing Bling's Express who I thought was the only threat to my pick....didn't and she won.  In the sixth we were on the turf and Michael Maker had two in the race.  I went with Nasty Noozie with Javier Castellano and that one took the lead into the lane, only to be inhaled in the final 100 yards by the uncoupled stablemate Nominative.  Not only was that one the favorite, but I never would have bet her with Julian Leparoux on board.  In the 7th John Velazquez surged to the lead on the turf with Violinist at 7/2 only to be swept by on the outside by my second choice Josedeanimaux at 3/1.  My best of the day, Barrel of Love was a juicy 5/2 in the 9th but was completely outrun, fifth.  And finally Trigger Finger (another Gulfstream 40% Club play for Michael Maker) was completely outrun and trailed throughout at 9/2.  One win.  Here's hoping this is NOT foreshadowing for the big triple-stakes action day tomorrow on Ft. Lauderdale Stakes Day.