Day 24

January 8:  A "COOL DAY" At Gulfstream!

It was indeed a "COOL DAY" in more ways than one.  As the lovely Lissette Gonzalez had forecast, the temperature was in the very low 50s this morning with gusty breezes that brought the "feels like" temperature to the upper 40s, and a projected high temperature of the day to struggle to get up to 70!  Now, while we might be "cold" the Midwest and Northeast were suffering through minus temperature readings.  My sister texted me that there was a -22 wind chill factor in Columbus!  This seemed like a good day to head out to Gulfstream and spend the afternoon outside enjoying the cool winter weather.  And fortunately when I'd handicapped the card I found selections in four of the first five races, one of which was CLEARLY the "BET of the Day!"  In the opener I thought Artsy was the clear winner.  Not only on form and talent, but she so reminded me of sooooo many of the winners that Paco Lopez rode for Eddie Plesa during my Monmouth Park Handicapping Project.  She was lightly raced with a very sharp 3/1-1-1 record.  She'd won her debut HERE in September 2013.  Then she was a best-of-the-rest second for a $40K 2-lifetime sprint.  She was off for eleven months and was a sharp second for a $25K 2-lifetime sprint in spite of having to check not once but twice through the first half mile.  I watched the replay and while it didn't help her chances I didn't think it really compromised her chances to win late.  Still, today the cut in claiming price by 50% to run in a $12.5K 2-lifetime event was just the kind of move that earned Lopez many of his wins when he won the riding title on the Jersey Shore.  And the race unfolded just like so many of those.  Lopez went right to the front, and while he looked to have pressure, but the opening quarter was a tepid :23 and change, the half in :46 and change.  She could easily rattle off a :45 half mile so she had plenty left I knew.  Sure enough when everyone was on the edge of their seat as they swung out of the turn and she was under pressure, Lopez shook the reigns and she was L-O-N-G gone! 

Now here's the ironic part.  While I'll take the win and the near-$20 payoff, because I had plays in the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th I seriously considered playing a double.  I was going to take Artsy and couple her with my top choice, who was 8/1 in the second, but there were three other logical ones, so I thought I'd take those also.  The payoffs were are all between $25 and $50, but there was another horse was paying less than $30 that I had NOT considered.  I thought, I'm not going to spread to five horses, I'll just watch.  You have to know how this turns out......two of the three favorites I'd named were battling late with the "other" horse I didn't when in mid-stretch my top choice split horses and drew off handily....paying $18.40 and keying a $46 double.  Man, for $2 I could have had it, but didn't.  In the third it was another Lopez runner and with the favorite out - who I did NOT like - I considered upping the bet.  But with ten minutes to go there were five horses between 7/2 and 5/1 - obviously a toss-up race.  I'll be happy with the minimum on a 7/2 or 4/1 horse.  Exploring led the 3rd race field into the stretch, but weakened to be fourth.  In the 4th it was my BET of the DAY!  It was a Maiden Special for 3-year-olds, and yes, it was a Todd Pletcher colt.  The first thing I saw I did NOT like.....Royal Son had already been out twice and ran second both times.  Hmmmm, a play against? 

Had it been anyone but Pletcher I would have looked for another.  But then I dug deeper.  In his debut he was second behind a horse named Pride of Stride who came back to run third in the Sapling Stakes and then won an allowance.  But it was his second start that proved the key.  He was AGAIN a best-of-the-rest second, but this time he was behind El Kabeir who was then up against it in the Grade 1 Champagne, but followed that up by winning the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club and last weekend won the first leg of the New York Derby preps, the Grade 3 Jerome.  The one nagging issue was when I looked up the third place horse from that race, he'd not won in several trips since.  Hmmmm.  So I had planned a "prime time" $20 bet.  But at the track with the cool breeze blowing through my hair :) I thought that this colt just might be THAT good, and maybe a Florida Derby contender for WinStar Farm and John Velazquez.  The crowd was pounding him to 1/5 and Christina Bossonakis - Gulstream analysis - said he looked fantastic in the paddock.  I made the command decision to play $50 to win!  As I waited for the race to start I could imagine myself narrating the video clip of how impressive he looked.  He had run his first two races by stalking the pace, which I thought was the way to win here, but he broke on top.  I didn't like that, but thought that Johnny V. thought he had "THE Horse" and would just take it over from the get-go.  But down the backstretch he was under pressure.  That's ok I thought, he'll move clear with ease into the turn, but no, now he was battling and I could tell Velazquez was having to ask him to run.  As they turned for home there were three of them across the track and the outside horse seemed to have all the momentum.  Oh no!  That one edged to the front and I thought it was over, but then Royal Son battled back.....but could never get to the unofficial winner, second best AGAIN!  Because it was close and I was on the inside I thought there was the slightest of chances maybe I'd been squeezed....but as I watched the replay it looked like I had a clean run to the wire.  Maybe, still, in the up-close slow motion finish I'd see.....no, wishful thinking Mark :(  But wait a tic, announcer Larry Colmus came over the PA and said, "Ladies and Gentlemen, please hold all tickets there is a stewards' INQUIRY into the stretch run involving the unofficial winner."  HEYYYY!  As I watched I didn't see it at first, and then when the announcement followed that the rider of #5, who finished unplaced, was objecting to the top one I focused on that part of the run....now I see it: 

Still, I've seen much worse have no change, but I've also seen less taken down.  The side view - at left, made it look like the #5 really was shut off.  But if you look at the head-on (at right) there seems to still be room to run AND the #5 was clearly behind the #8 when he came over.  As I watched the replay they looked at it for several minutes.  More times than if they were just taking a cursory look.  Maybe I have a chance....but still, if I were making the call I would have let it stand.  Then the replays stopped.  Typically if a change is NOT being made nearly immediately they announce as such.  But there was a delay, then a L-O-N-G wait.  Now I'm thinking that while they COULD say no change, this long of a wait usually means that the stewards are looking at how far back in the field to place him.  I was watching the tote board and the "8" was blinking.  I took it as a bad sign that Pletcher had not kept his colt on the track....apparently there would not be a winner's circle photo - or did he know that there wasn't going to be a change?  Suddenly on the next blink the "8" was gone and now the "2" was on top! 

I WIN!



The crowd had let him float up to 1/2 so I was cashing for $75!  In the fifth I thought Aesthetique would be loose on an easy lead AND her last two figures (77, 79) were better than 94 of the 95 of the races run by her rivals.  But the early betting was not showing the crowd felt the same confidence I did.  I stuck to my double investment.  She did NOT make the lead, and dueled between horses to the top of the lane then stopped, 9th.  As I made my three late bets I added up my wagers and how much I'd cashed for.....down $95, collected $93.  Really?  Win the "BET of the DAY" and I might not win?  So I knew I'd have to cash on one of the late races.  When I watched the replays I did, but it was ironic in that when I'd handicapped the 7th I wrote that this race looked like a prime example of a big payoff by a "who figures" kind of runner.  But Sister In Arms was dropping from tougher NYRA competition, the field was weak without any "name" jockeys or trainers; and Sister had both Javier Castellano and Christophe Clement.  I wrote she should be the favorite and should win.  So I bet the minimum.......She was behind horses through the turn, had to rally wide and finally wore down the leader late to win in the final 16th of a mile.  Gulfstream posted a great photo of Sister In Arms winning with the GIGANTIC fountain of Pegasus in the background: 

So, for the day I won over 40% and had a clear profit!  Truly, a "COOL Day!"

Day 23

January 7

WIN The Feature / Disappointment Otherwise

Not once, but TWICE I was nailed at the wire when it looked like I was a clear winner!  And worse, they were in the first two selections of the day.  In the opener Courtney Ryan was not only a "Horse-for-the-Course" (21/9-4-3) but a Gulfstream 40% Club play for trainer Tamara Levy.  She's won at 44% over the last two winters with horses when ridden by Luis Saez.  Last time out Courtney Ryan was upset by today's favorite, Elusive Harmony.  But I thought that was a clear case of "pace makes the race" when she was loose on the lead.  Today she'd have no such trip, and I even wondered if she would even MAKE the lead.  I was right on the money as she did not, and Courtney Ryan made her patented move, though very wide into the lane and surged to the lead.  But a horse saving all the ground on the rail was right there....PHOTO FINISH!  I did not have a good feeling, and I was right.  Second.  And check the payoff - really?  Taken down by a $76 horse?  Sigh.....  Right back in the second we were going a mile on the inner turf course in a non-winners of three lifetime and it was another Gulfstream 40% Club play - March Reward for trainer Michael Maker.  Three of the four angles that qualify Maker for Club Membership applied:  Class dropper, running for less than $40K, and Javier Castellano riding.  But if this were not the case I would have gone against because he was coming off a win, and in the claiming ranks it is uncommon for a "blue collar" type runner to put two top efforts together.  She was sent off at a generous 2/1, stalked the pace into the stretch and surged to the front at the furlong marker.  When the closers came running she dug in and with 100 yards to go I was still in front. But in the final strides it was a four-horse blanket finish, and it was clear that I was not in front...... The fifth was the first of two longshot plays I had.  Saratoga Lake was 8/1 and was an even fifth.  I had passed the 4th and then the sixth and BOTH of my top picks won those races......wow.  In the 7th I backed Dreaming of Frank at 11/1 in a MSW for sophomores and he ran to his odds, 9th.  In the eighth the numbers pointed out the play, but I was not nearly as confident as the odds said I should have been.  It was another maiden race for three-year-olds.  Queen Carla was sent out by a local outfit that had won at 21% for 2014, and they scored at a 22% mark with FTS at a big $3.46 ROI AND Javier Castellano was on board.  Add in a bullet work and you can see why I liked her at 4/1.  The post-time odds were 4/5 as the crowd saw everything I did.  She broke slowly and then.....did absolutely NO running - 10th.  This is NOT the way I'd seen the week starting off.

The feature today was the Miami Shores Handicap.  One thing I've noticed in recent Gulfstream seasons is when they run a listed stakes, especially during the week, it's a race that seems written for a comeback horse with class that does not want to run or doesn't qualify for allowance conditions.  Such was the case with Wedding Toast today.  She had run second in her Saratoga debut before scoring there - so you know she's talented.  She won an entry level allowance, two listed stakes and was second in a Grade 3.  Off for five months she was a best-of-the-rest second behind multiple Grade 1 winner Princess of Sylmar.  But that was last April.....could she overcome the layoff?  Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin had her working regularly since November.  Her main competition appeared to be Best Behavior from the Marty Wolfson barn who was on a two-race win streak including a big effort in the Claiming Crown Glass Slipper.  She was cross-entered in a Friday optional-claiming event were she would be a short-priced winner it appeared, so if she went here you know Wolfson was confident.  She ran.....and she and Wedding Toast put on a ding-dong show from the gate to the final 50 yards!  They dueled stride for stride all the way with Best Behavior on the inside and Wedding Toast on the outside.  But in the end class prevailed, and I had my one and only win of the day!

Day 22

Sunday January 4

 

A BIG Day At Gulfstream

I debated about coming out today....on the one hand I wanted to get out to Gulfstream after not coming yesterday; but on the other hand I didn't want to force the issue by betting on horses I that I wanted to win, but wouldn't bet if I weren't on track.  After handicapping the Gulfstream card I had found nine selections on the eleven race card, and two of them were "prime time" bets.  So I decided to buy the Daily Racing Form and look through the cards, with an eye towards only taking runners that I felt pretty confident in.  From three cards - Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, and Santa Anita - I found eleven selections in total.  I was content with the selections for a day's worth of adventures at the track.....it wouldn't be a hectic day, but I had bets at least every 25  minutes.  Today when I got up I decided that I would look at the Tampa card to see if I could find any additional runners I liked.  I've not had much luck there so far this winter.  I told Kim as I left that I didn't know how long I'd be out at Gulfstream as I was still tired, and with the time between races if I wasn't winning I wouldn't be keen to stay late.  Well, the way the day started I thought I would be making a very early exit.  The first bet of the day was the opener at Gulfstream.  Sweet Rocket Man came out of the Kirk Ziadie barn and was cutting his claiming price in half off of back-to-back seconds.  The board was showing 1-9 when I walked in and stayed there until five minutes to post when he floated up to 1/5.  Then Mike Welsch's top pick - who HE said would be the lone speed, but I didn't think so based on his pace figures - took late money, being bet down to 3/1.  This let 'Rocket Man float up to 4/5.  I thought that was stealing.  But he broke slowly, recovered to be stalking the lone speed - Welsch's pick.  As he started to make his move, the rider - who is a low pct. rider - tried to come up the inside.  But at the furlong marker he was checked hard, and then again losing all chance.  Though to be honest I don't think he'd caught the lone speed.  I had tripled the bet, and that wasn't the way I saw the day starting.  But at Aqueduct in their second Pop of color was Dave Liftin's best of the day.  He'd debuted while setting a sizzling pace before weakening to be second while EIGHT clear of the show.  Then he'd worked a best-of-98 bullet.  This seemed like such a "duh" pick.  The 2/5 post time odds were just a give-away I thought.  I had $20 to win.  Right to the front, coasting on an easy lead into the lane.  Here came one late runner with some momentum, all it would take was to NOT stop running to win....but instead inside the final 100 yards he did shorten stride and I was second.  WOW.....0-for-2 with two big added money bets.  Maybe today was NOT a good day to come out!  However, to my credit I kept an even keel and stuck to my sheet of selections.

Next up was the second at Tampa.  Frankly, the only reason I'd picked Angora was that Antonio Gallardo, who had won five races on Wednesday when Jeff and I were out here, was on board.  He was allowed to float up to 5/2 from his 2/1 program odds and ran away from the field!  How ironic that after investing $35 in the first two picks, I only had the minimum on this one :)  Still, a win is a win and I felt like I was back on the right track.  The third at Aqueduct was their feature, the Ruthless Stakes for 3yo fillies.  If the second had been a slam dunk, this was even more so.....on paper.  There was a short field of five with an OBVIOUS favorite, Paulassilverlining.  She had debuted with a good fourth, then won her maiden, followed by a Grade 2.  Then she stretched out to a one mile Grade 3 when she was best-of-the-rest second.  Now today she's in a listed stakes for a barn winning at 43%.  All of that would make her a standout, but the four rivals today included a maiden, two last out maiden winners, and the only "legitimate" threat to Paula, but she'd been beaten already (soundly) by Paula!  For some reason the crowd was pounding THE MAIDEN down to 9/5 as the second choice and one of the last-out maidens to 3/1.  All of this allowed Paulassilverlining to be a more-than-fair 6/5.  Four of them lined up across the track as heads turned for home, but a seam opened up on the rail and Paula shot through.  She quickly put those four behind her, but here came the closer in the field.  It was a stirring stretch duel (watch the video recap at the top of the page), but on the wire the class of Paulassilverlining prevailed! 

I had a "prime time" investment and with NYRA pools rounding to the nickel instead of the time I earned back $45!  The third at Gulfstream was less than ten minutes later and here I had to make the choice between TWO Gulfstream 40% Club runners.  As I had begun handicapping the race I thought that 3-Oh So Debonaire (6/1) would be the pick, and I'd be getting a nice price.  sent out by Tamara Levy with Luis Saez, those two have clicked at better than 44% over the last two winters.  But then I came to #10 Smarts.  He too was a GP 40% Club for trainer Jorge Navarro who makes the club with his class droppers.  AND he had Javier Castellano up.  I wrote in my analysis that the "smart" move would be to take the longer price on 'Debonaire, but I made a LOT of money betting Jorge Navarro runners this summer at the Jersey Shore.  And then I saw the key to the race.  Four back Smarts had run in a 7 1/2 furlong turf event.  Then he dropped in class and went to a dirt mile - won by open lengths.  His last race - a 7 1/2 furlong turf event....and today he was dropping in price to run at a one-turn mile!  Uh oh!  I doubled the bet.  Smarts pressed the 11/1 leader to the turn, dueled with him into the stretch and then Castellano let him run....drew off easily! 

Somehow the crowd let him go off at better than 2/1 and the $6.80 return allowed me to cash for almost $35!  At Aqueduct I ran second in a claiming event after My Adonis was bet down from 6/1 to 2/1 at post time.  But then I had my fourth winner in spite of another dilemma in my handicapping.  On the second day of the meet there was a MSW for 2-year-olds that had not one but TWO Todd Pletcher colts.  Old Mountain Lane was the preferred choice as he'd run second in his debut at Keeneland behind a colt that had come right back to win and then tried a graded stakes.  The other was Itsaknockout who was debuting today.  I took the experience out of a KEY race and Old Mountain Lane moved to the lead into the stretch but was nailed on the final head bob by Itsaknockout.  Flash forward to today.......Itsaknockout was making his first start against winners but G Five, another Pletcher colt was also in the race.  This guy had not only broken his maiden, but he'd already cleared the nw1x condition, so he was running for the $75K optional tag today.  What to do?  I made my choice based on the fact that G Five had been badly beaten in his MSW debut and had to drop into a Gulfstream West $25K maiden claimer to win.  I figured the nw1x company there was probably equally soft and Itsaknockout had won in MSW company here at the prestigious Champions Meet.  Didn't hurt that Pletcher was winning at nearly a 50% clip over the last four years with dirt route runners stepping up in class!  Two front runners set an insane pace for a mile going :22.1 and a wicked :44.1 half mile!  They were at least half a dozen lengths clear of Itsaknockout as they hit the far turn, but then the ground started to swallow up between them.  But the top of the lane my pick had inhaled them and drew off handily.  Stopping the teletimer at 1:08 and change for six furlongs and 1:21 for seven panels just may indicate this colt is something special.  And the best part........

The payoff, WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO!  An amazing $7.40 meaning I'd cash on a Pletcher colt for nearly $40!  My third win locally.  My next bet wasn't until the next here at Gulfstream.  And just a sidenote......after worrying about the time between races this was working out great.  Because I was winning the time between events was just right for me to find a spot, record the video about the race, and get back downstairs in plenty of time to bet and find a spot in the simulcast center or on the rail.  In the fifth we were on the turf and it was a non-winners of two lifetime.  The very first horse just leapt off the page saying "PICK ME!  I'm THE WINNER!"  Franklin was being sent out by Michael Maker - that always gets my attention!  Well, Maker has four angles that get him into the Gulfstream 40% Club......first with class droppers, second with claiming events less than $40K, third with horses moving dirt to turf, and fourth when Javier Castellano on board.  Franklin had last raced in allowance company and was making his first-ever start for a claiming tag (1-class dropper);  today's claiming price was for $20K (2-less than $40K claimer);  his last start had been on the Turfway main track (3-dirt-to-turf); and today Javier Castellano took over the reigns (4-Castellano).  The ONLY worry was as a finisher type of runner he was pinned on the rail and probably would lose significant ground trying to get out for clear run.  But Castellano showed why he's won back-to-back riding titles here when as the gates opened he burst out with the leaders.  This forced the true front-runners to have to run hard to clear him, so as he relaxed after the first one hundred yards going into the first turn he was in "the garden spot" racing third behind dueling front runners, but clear of the field.  When they hit the far turn he eased off the rail and ran away effortlessly to the wire, clear by daylight.  As I'd written in my analysis he was as close to "single" in the Rainbow Pick Six as you could get with a horse that had a career mark of 12/1-2-3. 

I earned a sweet near $40 because I'd gone "prime time" on him as my co-Best of the day here.  I missed with two in a row before it was time for the 7th at Gulfstream, and this was my other "best" - and if I had to choose he would have been THE BEST of the day.  I wrote in my analysis that this race was what Gulfstream was all about.  A maiden special for three-year-olds just full of talented horses.  But to me it seemed obvious that the winner would be Todd Pletcher's Outlash.  He was a $390K Keeneland sales purchase for top NY owner Michael Repole.  And I know this guy, he doesn't like to race his horses unless they have a legitimate chance to win.  Pletcher had this colt working steadily since mid-October and had two sharp bullet works in the last month.  His outside draw in post 12 would allow him to settle off the speed and make a strong closing bid, or press the pace if quick enough.  He settled nicely off the leaders and was gradually improving as they moved through the far turn.  As I stood on the rail just past the finish line I could see on the jumbo-tron that he was not in full flight for the leader as they turned for home, but then he found another gear and was FLYING.  But the 40/1 leader looked to have just enough left to get to the wire....or did he?  PHOTO FINISH!  As you can tell from the photo at left I was pretty certain from my vantage point he'd been short of catching the winner.  You can tell I thought as much if you listen to the inflection in my voice on the highlight video.  As I turned and walked up the steps of the apron I passed two guys and the one said to the other, "it was 12-2" - WAIT a tic, I HAVE the 12....could he be right.  I turned and looked at the jumbotron just as the official photo was put up.......

OH YEAH baby!  WINNER-WINNER, CHICKEN DINNER!  And the best part was the crowd had let this promising youngster leave the gate at 8/5.  Just because I wanted to take as much of the crowd's money as they'd give me I waited for the payouts hoping that it paid $5.40 instead of $5.20.....and he did!  I cashed for over $50 and now I'm 2-for-2 with prime-time bets here at Gulfstream. 

I missed on the next three and then it was time for the second of the two Tampa races I'd bet on the day (I actually had a third but he scratched when it came off the turf).  Scottish Sweetie looked obvious in this MSW.  Two back he'd run second on the Keeneland turf and the fall meet at Keeneland is always full of top-class runners, especially maidens.  Then off a short layoff he had run second here.  With one over the course and some obvious ability I thought he'd easily be 6/5 or less than even money at post time.  But, because hot-riding Antonio Gallardo was NOT on board he floated up to 2/1 at post time.  He stalked the leaders into the stretch and then burst clear by three.  Here came the Gallardo runner, but too late to catch Scottish Sweetie.  The nice $6 payoff returned another $15 to my pocket.  I headed for home right after Great Attack ran second in a turf sprint to my third choice.  In the last five races that I watched on twinspires.com I had a win, two thirds and a second.  So for the day I finished an excellent 8-for-21 (38%) and was a clear profitable winner on the day.  Two things I'll remember about today:  first, the last minute decision to add in the Tampa races - 2-for-2 with a profit of over $20.....without those two picks I finish 6-for-19, still 30% but I'm in the red for the day!  And secondly, I was really happy with my ability to stay the course and trust my picks and money management.  After starting off 0-for-2 with two big bets I didn't back down and still fired away with three more prime time runners that all came home to score!  WHOOO HOOOO!

Here's a look back at this week's recap of the five days of racing for December 31 through January 4:



Day 21

January 3:  Happy Anniversary!

Twenty-eight fabulous years with the love of my life, and sooooo many great memories!  We didn't do anything today as we were just worn down from the long holiday break and chasing around our grandson :)  I had considered going out to the races today but I knew that I would not be at my best (if I even had the time) to handicap yesterday, and wasn't even sure I'd want to be at the races for the full day.  I always enjoy being there, but if I were as worn out as I thought I'd be, I wouldn't enjoy it to the fullest, so I planned on an assault for Sunday.  And in the end it proved to be a wise decision as not only would I have not enjoyed the day due to lack of energy, but it was a disappointing day.  Not so much the losses, as I went 0-for-6, but I ran second in back-to-back races where I looked like a certain winner, and in the "BEST" of the day my horse just stopped running on the turn.  I'll briefly mention the two runner-up finishes and then let's move on to tomorrow.  In the Grade 3 Dania Beach I thought Bill Mott's A Lot had a good shot to rebound at a price.  She was the 3/2 favorite in the $100K Awad in New York last time out and it seemed clear to me that she did not care for the yielding turf.  At 6/1 in the program, running on firm ground, and with jockey John Velazquez I expected a big effort.  My only fear was Night Prowler who had Javier Castellano for Chad Brown.  But the Brown barn is struggling at 1-for-17 through the month of December.  Sure enough, as the turned for home Velazquez had A Lot in prime position and she blew by to lead, at a big 6/1 post time odds!  I was counting the $70 plus dollars I was about to collect.......but in the final 100 yards the #9 caught her.  Who's the 9?  Yes, Night Prowler.  Sigh.  In the very next race, the Spectacular Bid, Ready For Rye looked like a standout.  Coming off a second behind Grade 1 winner Carpe Diem he'd blown away the competition.  But I actually thought that second behind Pletcher talented colt had been an even better race.  Either effort would win for fun here.  Everyone thought he was a standout and he was sent away as the even money favorite.  He rated just off the pace, moved to the front.......

......but as I expected him to blow by the horse on the rail, on the outside was a runner with a full head of steam and Ready For Rye had no response, second again.  The "best thing" about the day was I was NOT on track for these results.  Luckily the great thing about racing is that we're back on track tomorrow!

Day 20

January 2 - ANOTHER 40% Day

Well, the holiday season is over as the kids headed out today around lunch time.  The good news is that Kim & I still have the weekend - and our wedding anniversary to look forward to - but already it's seemed like a L-O-N-G holiday season.  The cruise got us off to a great start, and then the weekend in Orlando, followed by Cameron's visit with our other two kids.  Couldn't have asked for more!  But, racing continued today and it was another big day! 

Like yesterday I had five selections.  In the opener I had a pick, but was fairly certain he wouldn't run - he was a main track only pick and Gulfstream (unlike Calder management FOR YEARS) was running turf races regardless of the weather.  Sure enough Cosmo Blue was out.  But in the second it was a maiden claiming event and Lemon Up looked to be a standout.  He was plunging over 50% in claiming price for Kirk Ziadie off of back-to-back runner-up efforts.  Some barns send their runners down the claiming ladder like this to dump them, but Ziadie does this all the time with his first goal being a WIN!  If the horse gets claimed he goes out and gets another.  The only red flag, which kept my bet at a double investment instead of prime time was an 0-for-24 jockey was on board.  Still, I reasoned, if he just lets the horse break the rest is history.  And that is EXACTLY what happened.  Within the first five jumps Lemon Up was in front by daylight...by the time the opening quarter had been passed he was in front by three....at the half mile pole by TEN.....at the top of the stretch he was in front by EIGHTEEN lengths, and continued to expand his winning margin to the wire with the final number being over TWENTY-ONE lengths.  Ultra impressive as was the time:  :44.4 for the half and a sizzling 1:09.4 for the final time. 

The $13 cashout was like free money to me.  My next pick was my BET of the DAY!  The fourth was the first stakes race of 2015, the Bal Harbor Handicap.  When Gulfstream runs a listed stakes like this, especially on a weekday card, it's to give a proven stakes winner a place to make a comeback; and typically as a confidence builder.  Granted, nothing is a mortal lock, it's a horse race.  But still, that's how you approach these kind of events and often you can win at a high percentage by looking for the class play.  Two fillies jumped off the page when you scanned through the past performances........U.S.S. O'Brien and House Rules.  Check out their past performances and you'll see what I saw: 

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CLEARLY the class of the field is House Rules.  While U.S.S. O'Brien actually equaled House Rules career best figure in her last-out win, you can see that she's run in three entry allowance events then wired a listed stakes race last out.  Meanwhile House Rules had been in SIX graded events, twice running a best-of-the-rest second here against the ill-fated champion Onlyforyou and beaten a neck by In Tune in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (who was my BEST of the day on Derby Day).  She'd seen Untapable twice, multiple Grade 1 winner Sweet Reason, and in her last the winner, Snowbell had capped a two-race win streak in the Grade 3 Comely.  The only time House Rules had faced listed/allowance foes she'd won by 5, by 6, and by 6.  She looked MUCH the best to me.  I was hoping that some "value" players would try to beat her with U.S.S. O'Brien.  And they did, betting her down to 9/5 as the second choice.  She jumped to the front and House Rules was patiently ridden by Javier Castellano along the rail into the far turn.  You can tell (if you watch the weekly highlight video) that track announcer, like the crowd, expected the two fillies to hook up in a stretch duel as House Rules cruised up to look U.S.S. O'Brien in the eye as they turned for home.  But that lasted about one stride as House Rules BLEW by and drew off geared down by NINE widening lengths as the outclassed U.S.S. O'Brien caved to third.  PRIME TIME baby! 

The $3.60 payoff got me back nearly $40 and that was "easy money" in my opinion.  Lost the last three but finished another good day of handicapping 5/2-0-2!

Day 19

January 1 - Happy New Year!

Today was the day we celebrated Cameron's second birthday and Kim had worked so hard to make it a special day for him by creating a "Cars" themed party, highlighted with several full-sized box-cars.  When he got up from his nap he was so very excited....made it all worthwhile.  I kicked off the new racing year with a 40% day and a flat-bet profit.  My first selection in the second ran third at 9/5, but I made my day with my second selection in the fourth.  It was a claiming event on the turf and Rhythm Queen was sent out by trainer Jane Cibelli.  He was droping from a series of optional-allowance and higher priced claiming events into this $20K spot.  The class drop is a Gulfstream 40% Club move!  Rhythm Queen had won twice over the course last winter, and the fact that Javier Castellano was on board today was an added plus.  Castellano had her in the second flight just a few lengths off the lead as they hit the far turn.  Once heads turned for home he angled her out into the clear and she burst to the front.  Clear by daylight on the wire, WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

And check out the price - a more than generous $7.00 leading to a big cash that would carry the day!  No where to be found with Todd Pletcher's All too Many in a MSW for sophomores on the turf at 7/2.  I went the wrong way in the 7th where I had to choose between Rose Brier and Longhunter, BOTH of whom were Gulfstream 40% Club plays.  Longhunter was a multiple winner over the course for Michael Maker, owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey, and jockey Javier Castellano. He had drawn post 12. Just inside of him was Rose Brier who was being sent out by Cibelli and she had Joel Rosario on board today.  Over the last two winters those two won at a huge 60% clip!  Toss in the fact that his local record was 4/2-2-0 AND had just run second in the $125K Claiming Crown Tiara (earning a 96 BSF).  The final straw was that Longhunter had won every time over the course by gunning to the front and wiring the field.  He faced other speed and was drawn well outside....I went with Rose Brier.  For the first time in his career Longhunter rated off the pace and got the jump on my top pick and sprinted to the wire clear of the late-running Rose and my top picks finished 1-2, in the wrong order.  I closed the day out with a scintillating win by Lady Shipman in a turf sprint against entry level allowance company.  I was hoping for a better price because (a) she was exiting a maiden win facing winners for the first time, (b) faced what looked like a lot of pace pressure today, and (c) had drawn the outside post today.  But in my mind, if she set anything close to the :21.4 and :45.1 pace she had last out she would be long gone.  An 80-1 longshot from the inside bolted to the front and Lady Shipman was right on her hip through a :21.4 opening quarter, but as they passed the half-mile pole the teletimer registered :44.4 and Lady Shipman had a head in front.  No one in the field could handle those kind of pace numbers and she drew off with authority!  The 8/5 price got me a little less than $15 and I closed the day out with 2 wins from 5 picks, 40%!

Day 18

December 31 - Boys Day At The Races

On Monday afternoon our oldest son, Jeff, arrived in Ft. Lauderdale with his wife and our grandson Cameron.  We have SOOOOO enjoyed having them here and Cameron is so happy here.  We are looking forward to celebrating his birthday with a "Cars" themed party tomorrow.  But today was a day that Jeff was really looking forward to, a day at Gulfstream Park.  On the way there we both agreed that the outcome of the day would be determined by money management as we felt we had a fair share of winners, but would we profit?  Well, that was the way the day went as by the time the last race had finished I'd selected 32% winners on the day.  Unfortunately neither of us came out in the black.  For Jeff however, he'd brought $200 to Florida to go to the casino in Tampa (before they came to South Florida) and to spend at the races.  When he heads back he'll have the original $200 AND an $85 profit, so you can't argue with that outcome for two days of entertainment.  I knew, and I'd told Jeff, that I had a lot of odds-on runners who just seemed obvious.  But that's always a dangerous thing on a weekday card like today.  In the first race on our sheet, the opener at Gulfstream, Sweet Aimee was running for Kirk Ziadie and was going from turf to dirt, a 45% winning angle.  She just ran away from the field in hand.....although there was a runner flying late that had the race been six furlongs instead of 5 1/2 we may have found ourselves tossing the ticket! 

Over the next two hours we suffered through six losses, three of them odds on as we ran third at 8/5, 6th at 8/5 and 4th at 2/5.  We had a chance at Laurel at 2/1, but came up second best.  Finally in the Fair Grounds opener we clicked again.  This race was my "BEST" of the day in New Orleans.  It was the Louisiana Futurity Stakes for two-year-old fillies and my top choice was Wind Chill Factor.  She had score for me when we were in Ohio over the Thanksgiving holiday and then again on December 13 as part of a 15-win day in the Louisiana Lassie.  In both those races she was NOT he favorite, but today she was meeting only one legitimate rival and she'd beaten that one last time out.  She swooped to the lead turning for home and proved again why she is currently the best juvenile filly in the state of Louisiana.  I had $20 to win and was just happy - as was Jeff - to be back in the winner's circle.  Our next win came minutes later at Hawthorne when Fearless Bayless ran to her numbers.  As I wrote in my analysis, typically last race Beyer figures of 33 and 36 would not be anything to write home about, but in this field it made her look like a Breeders' Cup Champion.  Two runners exited races where they earned a -0 Beyer; another had earned a 4 and a 5 in her last two.  Two debut runners came from barns that were winless with first-time starters.  And the only threat - on numbers - had already been beaten by Fearless Bayless not once, not twice, but three times.  She rallied down the middle of the track to collar the leader at the furlong marker and drew off easily.  At Tampa we finished fourth before running second at Laurel.  But we picked up our next win at the Fair Grounds on the turf when Another Blue blew the doors off his rivals at even money in a 2-lifetime event.  She had figured off of back-to-back seconds in allowance company before dropping into this restricted claiming race.  At Hawthorne Jazzy Jan looked even more certain that Fearless Bayless, but did NOT get the job done, second at 3/5 after looking home free at 3/5 in mid-stretch.  Jeff and I got our second winner on track when Highland Sara dueled with Sylviasgivenangel the length of the stretch.  They were my top two choices in my analysis, but I'd given the nod to 'Sara because of the presence of Javier Castellano.  Trainer Kirk Ziadie almost made me pay as 'Sylvia battle all the way to the wire in a photo finish.  Standing on the rail neither Jeff or I were sure who'd won, but we were hopeful, and proved to be right when the photo came up!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

Like most of the selections on the day Highland Sara didn't pay much ($5.60) as even going off as the second choice she was a short number.  Within fifteen minutes we'd hit pay dirt again, this time in Aqueduct's feature, the Alex M. Robb Stakes.  My top choice was Big Business who was 8-for-9 in the money over his last sequence of races and all of those were against better or at this level.  The lone off-the-board finish came in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile last out.  He stalked the leaders into the stretch and forged to a lead of nearly a length, but a closer was coming and it was close at the wire, but we knew we'd won again - our sixth of the day! 

At Gulfstream I had what I thought was a legitimate price play in Margin who left the gate at 7/1.  Was positioned well heading into the far turn, but then had nothing for the run to the wire, sixth.  The races were gearing up out west and it was minutes to post time when I went to make a bet.  When I came back Jeff said, "Did you see that?"  What?  "You just won at Santa Anita!"  Somehow I'd lost track of the racing going to the post and was in line betting when Eltoninadress dominated the second in a claiming sprint out west.  I'd doubled the bet and cashed for nearly $20.  The "funniest" story of the day came with our last winner.  When we were walking into the facility I told Jeff that Antonio Gallarado was winning nearly every race at Tampa.  But throughout the day we always had "a better idea."  Finally in the 9th we went with him on Maggie Sue.  The race was originally scheduled for the grass, but was now on the main track.  Unbeknownst to each other we both doubled our original bet as Gallardo was shooting for his FIFTH win of the day.  And he dominated the race.  The crowd wasn't fooled and bet Maggie Sue down to 8/5; still the $5.40 payoff generated nearly $30 to us.  The day ended with seven losses, but FOUR of them, including the last three, all saw my horse run second!  Still, 32% wins on the day and spending the entire day at the races with my son is always a winning day.  We enjoyed a New Year's feast of crab legs with the rest of the family and stayed up to see the ball drop in New York's Time Square!

Check out the highlights of our day at the races: