Day 8

A BIG WIN On Special TUESDAY Card

Indeed it was a big, and I must admit somewhat surprising day.  I headed out to Gulfstream on this special Tuesday card - you see, with no racing on December 24 or 25 we get to run today and next Tuesday! - for three different reasons.  First, Kim and I leave for a Holiday Caribbean Cruise on Thursday afternoon, so there will be no "on track" racing this weekend; second, when I handicapped the card I found four selections in the first five races - one of which appeared to be perhaps the "Bet of the Week;" and third, I thought I might be able to move one of my two blocks of Florida Derby tickets closer to the other so we could all sit together.  In the opener I had picked Keyed For Speed who just looked much the best on paper.  I wasn't surprised when I walked in that he was the favorite, but as I walked into Gulfstream he was being hammered at 2/5.  He floated up to 4/5 and promptly broke slowly from the gate, was behind horses through the turn and when he finally came running it was without a lot of enthusiasm - a disappointing third.  In the second I had a Gulfstream 40% Club play!  Trainer Kelly Breen has hit with 6-of-13 (46%) runners over the last FOUR winters when three circumstances occur simultaneously:  (1) a horse is making it's first start of the meet, (2) the race is in the first twenty days of the meet, and (3) it is a maiden claiming event.  Personal Start was breaking from the rail with Paco Lopez aboard and looked to be on or near the lead, and had the "early speed, class drop" angle going as he'd shown speed for a half mile at Parx as the even money favorite for a $25K tag, today he was in for $12.5K.  Today was his (1) first start of the meet, (2) on the 8th day of the meet, and (3) it was a maiden claimer....check-check-CHECK!  He dueled with a price horse until they straightened for home and then drew off to score by daylight through the final furlong!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

In the third I didn't have a bet - all the other handicappers liked Pass Key, who was my second choice and I anticipated being the short-priced favorite.  He won and paid a nice $8.20.  Because I had no bet I went inside and hooked up with "Gabe" from the ticket office who I've worked with before.  He told me he was 99% sure he'd be able to put my two groups together into one section and get me to additional tickets (found out that Kassandra Gordon, an AP I've worked with on graduation at Cypress Bay and have been trying to get to the races) has committed to go.  I gave him my business card and told him he should check out my web site as I handicap every day for Gulfstream and devote my page to the track.  He said, "Really?  I'll check that out!"  And then I told him that I could not tell him how many people I'd turned on to racing by bringing them out to Gulfstream.  He replied, "I'll have to do something special for you!"  We'll see!  Now it was time for the fourth race, a maiden special weight sprint for two-year-olds.  Duh, hello.......is there a Pletcher runner?  Indeed!  On the rail was Blame Game.  He was the son of champion Blame, who I had seen hand the immortal Zenyatta her lone career loss in by a nose in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs as we stood along the rail.  He had been purchased by one of Todd Pletcher's clients for $200K at Keeneland and was making his career debut today.  The works were not spectacular, no bullets, but were steady and dated back to August.  My only concern was that jockey John Velazquez was on the rail, and that can often intimidate a horse, especially a first time starter, and most especially a young juvenile runner.  I went to the paddock to get a look at him up close and he was a beautiful animal.  When I looked at the board I was amazed that the #5 was the 8/5 favorite and the #7 was 2/1 while Blame Game sat up there at 5/2.  I looked at my analysis and I did not even have the #7 in the mix!  And the #5 was my third choice.  What is everyone thinking!!!!!?????  I briefly considered maybe I should back down from my triple investment plan, but then thought "NO" I am about to make a nice score.  As I stood on the rail and the horses loaded into the gate Blame Game floated up another click to 3/1!  WOW.  He broke sharply and was quickly dueling with two experienced horses and stuck on the rail.  Before the first quarter mile was over Johnny V showed why he is in the Hall of Fame.  He eased Blame Game off the duel, then slipped him outside of horses for a clear run.  By doing so he'd give up about two lengths, which did concern me a little, but as the horses now hit the far turn Blame Game EXPLODED and burst by the runners in front of him.  By the time he turned for home he was clear by daylight and was L-O-N-G gone! 

I could not believe my good fortune when the tote board flashed up $8.60 for a winning ticket - I would be cashing for almost $65 and I am certainly going to win for the day!  Especially knowing that the next race was my BET of the WEEK!  It's funny how racing works though.  I had this nagging thought in my head, what if THIS race had been the best of the day?  I looked again at my sheet and Palace Gate was a Todd Pletcher GP 40% Club play - racing for a $40K tag or less.  And his last FOUR BEYER speed figures were better than all the LIFETIME figures of the rest of the field.  I had planned to bet $30 to win.  I quickly added up my remaining plays and if I lost all three of them, unlikely but it could happen, I would lose a dollar for the day.  It seemed a shame to waste the big win on Blame Game .... what if I backed down to $20 on Palace Gate?  Then I thought - no, stick to your guns, if you are meant to win for the day you will.  It is a long meet before we start thinking win or loss bottom line.  Well Palace Gate broke alright but seemed to be off stride or bobbled for a 16th of a mile.  Javier Castellano settled him by the first turn and as they hit the far turn he was poised to strike as the heavy 2/5 favorite.  Then ...... nothing.  Just stopped running and finished dead last.  WOW.  I went in to make my last two bets, only to discover that the final bet of the day had scratched.  Now granted that might have made me a big winner on the day, but without that bet, I am guaranteed to win for the day!  The pick in the 8th trailed throughout, so for the day I finished a solid 2-for-5 (40%) and in the black!  Check out the video clips from today: