Day 2

Sunday December 7
Weekend Highlight Video

BIG WIN on the BET of the WEEKEND!

Yesterday while Kim and I were at Gulfstream Park I told her after I'd won my "Bet of the Day" on Eighttofasttocatch in Laurel's Jennings Handicap that the "BET of the WEEKEND" was today and that my top choice could probably win, ".....if he ran around the track backwards...."  I had handicapped the Sunday card yesterday morning, and let me say this about the daily handicapping project; my plan for the Fall Racing Season was to back off the "grind" of handicapping.  I had handicapped at least four days a week, and then five days a week from January through early July with my "Gulfstream Handicapping Project" and then the "Churchill Downs Handicapping Project."  This continued with at least three days a week through Labor Day on my "Monmouth Handicapping Project."  So all the way through October I was strictly a weekend, stakes handicapper.  But near the end of October I had had enough of only handicapping on the weekend.  So I am really excited to back to handicapping regularly, but most especially to be handicapping back at Gulfstream.  Today's card provided me with what I thought were six opportunities from the ten-race card.  In the opener I liked Capricco Blue.  He was drawn outside several front runners in an optional-claiming sprint.  He got the perfect trip under Paco Lopez, just as I had envisioned.  But when heads turned for home he didn't have any burst and finished evenly, fifth at 5/2.  In the second Drunken Love (4/1) was a Gulfstream Park 40% Club play for trainer Jamie Ness.  Over the last two winters he's had four angles that earned "membership," and ALL FOUR applied here:  runners during the first 20 days, in turf sprints, and with Luis Saez on board.  But the fourth was the key - Ness had sent out four runners off a 61-90 day break over the last to years and they ALL WON.  Drunken Love broke sharply, but by the time they'd run the first quarter mile he dropped anchor and gradually fell all the way back to a disappointing ninth.  In the 6th I backed Fan Base in a claiming turf route.  Sent out by Marcus Vitali with jockey Orlando Bocachica up, I had noticed these two had been sizzling throughout the Gulfstream Park West meet.  The seven-year-old runner had a strong 7-for-21 turf resume and an even better 5-for-11 at today's distance.  His last three were all wins with ascending Beyers....all signs said GO!  He broke right on top and as they turned into the backstretch the opening split was in :23 and change.  Normally that would be considered fast, maybe too fast.  But the turf course had played largely to speed yesterday and earlier today so I thought we were OK.  As they hit the far turn the field was closing in so Bocachica let out a notch as heads turned for home.  But at the furlong marker it looked like one of the closers had him dead to rights.  Even announcer Larry Colmus's call was an obvious prelude to announcing this guy running down Fan Base.  But if you watch the weekend highlight video below you'll be able to hear him change his comment mid-sentence as Fan Base dug in courageously and held the challenger off.  WHOOO HOOOOO! 

He'd taken a lot of late money unfortunately.  The chicklets under the screen had showed him at 2/1 all the way through the race, but the final payoff was at 7/5 :(  That late influx of money cost me over $5, but still I cashed for nearly $25. 

In the 7th I just KNEW this would happen.....I had considered the facts and even in spite of myself I bet the way I did.  It was a two-year-old Maiden Special sprint going seven furlongs.  Now before you get any screwy ideas, no, I did NOT bet against a Todd Pletcher runner - well technically.  He had TWO in the field.  One was Old Mountain Lane who was exiting a KEY race where the winner had come right back to beat allowance foes and then was good enough to run in the Grade 3 Kentucky Jockey Club.  The other was Itsaknockout who was a $350K Fasig-Tipton first-time starter.  I thought about going with the latter who was listed at 6/1, but with Old Mountain not only having experience but exiting that KEY race it was too much to bypass.  I felt better about my pick when I saw he was one handicapper's "Best" of the day.  Itsaknockout dueled with the longshot leader into the turn while Old Mountain Lane bided his time.  When they turned for home 'Lane was asked to run, but it took him about a 16th of a mile to finally get going.  Now we were inside the final 16th and he was exploding towards the line.......could he get there in time?  PHOTO FINISH!  Yes, that's me, sadly, on the outside (#9).  The winner paid a huge $12.80 - especially huge for a Pletcher first-time starter.  Sigh, if Old Mountain Lane had not been in the race I would have had him and cashed for over $60.  Wow.  But no worries, the 9th was the featured Adventura Handicap and my BET of the WEEKEND!  When I handicapped the card I had already known that this guy would be my bet, and probably a big bet.  I had seen him run this past summer and had read about his return to the races in the Daily Racing Form.  Trainer Marty Wolfson's rising star Atreides had begun his career here last summer and flashed to three sensational wins earning back-to-back-to-back triple Beyers.  He had been so impressive that the normally conservative Wolfson shipped to Indiana Grand to run in the Grade 2 Indiana Derby this past October.  Joel Rosario flew in to ride and the crowd sent him off as the even-money chalk.  But that day he had early traffic trouble, found himself behind horses and wasn't happy catching dirt in his face for the first time so Rosario wrapped up on him and Wolfson gave him a break.  There had been rumors that he was being pointed for the Grade 1 Cigar Mile which was run last weekend, but Wolfson followed his typical conservative path and put him in this overnight handicap as a confidence builder.  The fact that he was coming off a short break only added to the appeal to me as this was a Gulfstream 40% Club angle!  It looked like, as I wrote in my analysis, a public workout in the making.  Then this morning I read on the DRF site that two local workout clockers had been quoted publicly as saying Atreides had NOT been working as well for his return as he had last summer.  Worrisome?  I checked both Ron Nicoletti and Mike Welsch comments on the race and both had written glowingly about him, so I stuck with my bet......a Ulysses S. Grant ($50) to WIN!  He was 1/5 throughout the betting, but in the final clicks he nosed up to 2/5 - a gift if as good as advertised.  And then it happened........they broke from the gate and immediately the #4 to his inside broke outward and slammed into Atreides knocking him off balance.  Immediately the #6 zoomed in to try an get inside and knocked him the other way AND shut him off.  Suddenly five jumps into the race Atreides was dead last and was taken to the far outside for a wide, trouble-free run.  When your horse has early trouble the LAST thing you want is to see the jockey step on the gas and get into early contention because 99 times out of 100 that leaves the horse empty for the stretch run.  Sure enough, you guessed it, jockey Edgar Zayas (who, by the way was in the midst of a fabulous weekend) let the colt run.......6th, 5th, 4th, 3rd, and in prime position as they hit the far turn.  As I watched the race I was trying to see if he was tugging Zayas up, or if he was being asked.  Didn't help my frame of mind that as they ran through the turn he was 3 or 4 wide.  He passed the pressing second place horse and as heads turned towards the winning line he was on even terms with the front-running second choice.  Now he'd have to answer the question - did he have anything for the drive?  For about a 16th of a mile the answer appeared to be "NO," but then Zayas shook the reigns and he burst away to win by daylight as MUCH the best!  Whooop whoop!!! 

The final price was $2.80 and I would cash for $70! Two days into the meet, two big time bets of $50 each, TWO BIG WINS!  Have to feel good about my handicapping and decision making as we start the new season :)  When I'd been reading online about Atreides this morning I had watched the DRF "Race of the Day" video and looked over the field for the featured $200K Soviet Problem Stakes for two-year-old fillies at Los Alamitos.  What had caught my eye first was that the anticipated favorite was My Fiona who I had cashed on in a state-bred stakes on the Saturday Breeders' Cup undercard.  When I read the research before watching the video I saw that her trainer and rider were both anxious to stretch her out to a mile today (the BC card win was at seven furlongs), and both were quoted as saying she would be better around two turns.  Then when DRF handicapper Matt Bernier also put her on top - he RARELY takes the chalk, I knew I had something!  Post time wasn't until 7 pm so I got to watch live and it was a thrilling race!  Watch the highlight video of the weekend's action below, it's well worth it.  The filly that was supposed to give her fits did.  The two hit the top of the lane together and the other one edged to the front.  My Fiona came right back to put her nose in front - that's unusual for a horse, especially a young and inexperienced one to come back after being headed - but then the challenger came right back and was drawing clear over a half length clear as they hit the furlong marker of the long (one quarter of a mile) stretch at the former QuarterHorse facility.  But then stakes-winning My Fiona exerted her class and CAME BACK AGAIN to collar her challenger and edged clear late to win! 

This victory gave me a 43% win average for the final day of the racing week, and it upped my two-day totals to an excellent 10-for-30 - 33%.  It was a nice bonus that the My Fiona win also padded my profit for the day.  We'll be right back at it again on Wednesday.  My plan is to be at Gulfstream Wednesday as I need to pick up and pay for our tickets to the Florida Derby (looks like 21 this year).  The highlight of the weekend will be the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl, the only graded stakes of the December calendar.  The Sugar Swirl will be complemented by two listed stakes on the Gulfstream undercard and at the Fair Grounds it will be "Louisiana Champions Day" with eight stakes races to handicap.  You can bet I'll be there!