Florida Derby Week Off To A Slow Start
The most anticipated week of the meet started off with a terrible case of seconditis. On Wednesday I finished 0-for-5, all with added money investments as I ran second THREE times. I came back on Thursday with only three selections and added another second without scoring yet again. I spent from 6 am to 6 pm handicapping the Florida Derby card and then Kim & I went out to dinner with our friends in town for the Derby. After watching the replays I was hoping this would NOT be a pre-cursor to how Derby Day would go, and kept upbeat in thinking that if I was not winning early in the week, then I certainly would have a strong finish to the end of the week!
Friday March 27
OK, back on the beam! The opener was my "Bet of the Day" as Awesome Flower was a multiple Gulfstream Park 40% Club play from the Michael Maker barn. In her last six starts she had run in SIX STAKES, with wins in four of them, and today was running in a $25K starter event! The drop in class is a Maker Club angle; Javier Castellano was on board, another 40% angle; and finally, she moves from a solid stakes try over the Tampa main track to today's turf event - the surface change was a third Club angle. She was a prohibitive 1/9 when she left the gate and as the field hit the far turn she was fourth and last in the short field, behind a wall of horses! Really? Castellano had been riding - in my opinion - below par as of late with his horses often in trouble or in less than optimal position (unlike the first three plus months of the meet when he seemingly always put his runners in position to score). But then the leader drifted off the rail and it was all over as Awesome Flower galloped out to score by daylight easily.
The $25 investment netted me close to $30. The win and payoff collection was not nearly as big to me as the satisfaction I felt from sticking to my betting in spite of the streak of losses the first two days. I've said this often, but one of the biggest advantages to my handicapping since I've become a "serious" player is that I KNOW that the wins will come, and in the end my numbers will balance out. So to stick with the "prime time" investment and be rewarded was big to me - especially with Derby Day tomorrow. Right back with another added money investment in the second which was today's feature, The Tamarac Stakes for three-year-olds. The morning line favorite was Mr. Jordan who was unbeaten and had scored in back-to-back stakes events at Gulfstream Park West. Trainer Eddie Plesa had been quoted that he felt the colt was Florida Derby caliber, but without being able to get him ready in time he was showing up here with an eye towards bigger prizes later. The main competition, and my top choice was Todd Pletcher's Competitive Edge. Whereas Mr. Jordan was a perfect 3-for-3, Pletcher's colt was "only" two-for-two, but in my opinion boasted a much stronger resume. He'd debuted at the prestigious Saratoga meet and was sent off as the 4/5 favorite. He responded with a big 10 plus length score, then came back to take the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes before going to the bench. Anything close to those efforts and Mr. Jordan was going to be dunked today! Competitive Edge broke on top and held Mr. Jordan safe to the top of the lane. When Mr. Jordan was urged to run, Competitive Edge opened up easily to draw off by eight widening lengths while earning the chart comment, "....drew off as the HANDIEST of winners....." Easy-peasy pie!
He paid an overlaid (considering his chances) $3.40 so I cashed for more than $25. I had considered playing the early double with what appeared to be two short-priced winners, but as I've often learned when I do play anything other than straight win bets, I didn't want to go 50% in my selections and be in the red. In retrospect it would have been a good bet as it paid $4.20 - doubling your money on two easy winners looks like a money-giveaway after the fact. I Feel Great looked like a standout in the 7th and went right to the front at even money. But after the opening quarter dropped back through the field like he had an anchor attached to his saddle, 7th. In the eighth I backed LA Freeway at 4/1. He'd won by eleven widening lengths in a fast time while running at a fast pace, all of which told me he could make a successful step up from maiden to winners today. He stalked the pace but finished evenly to be fourth. My final bet of the day came in the 9th where I labeled Seventhfleethumor - listed at 8/1 in the program - as my UPSET of the DAY. I thought the crowd would let him go off at a fair price in spite of the fact that he'd been a fast-finishing second behind a repeat Pletcher turf winner and Javier Castellano being on board because out of that race he'd been claimed AWAY FROM Michael Maker. But the small outfit that took him was scoring at a big 36% with an amazing $8.68 ROI with those! Good enough for me! Castellano had him well back as they approached the far turn, and then just like his last he unleashed a quick turn of foot and quickly picked off runners while moving from fifth to first as they turned for home. He drew off as tons the best! My third win of the day!
The crowd was sharper than I gave them credit for as he left the gate as the 7/5 favorite. I cashed for nearly $40 on my triple investment to carry a big winning day into the signature event tomorrow. Later the whole crowd of friends and family were over for our traditional pre-Derby dinner and then I put on an "Inside Look" at the races where I tried to point out some handicapping angles and selections that would help everyone be successfully tomorrow. Some of the points I made that would prove to be prophetic:
*Castellano, who won five races on the card last year, seems to be "off" as of the last ten days.
*War Correspondent drops out of a Grade 1 event finishing a length behind a multiple stakes winner while making his first start off a layoff. He looks strong in the Grade 3 Appleton
*Beauty Parlor, in the Orchid, is a first-time European which gives her a hidden class edge
